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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
March 17, 2026
Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics
March 16, 2026
Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)
March 12, 2026
On Not Reading
March 11, 2026
The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI
March 10, 2026
A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?
March 9, 2026
Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series
March 5, 2026
The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind
March 4, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Posted by By Briggs April 13, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Posted by By Briggs April 9, 2026
Continue Reading
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
Posted inStatistics

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

There is no Class this week, due to events. Here are the first 100 numbers in a series I constructed: 0.3987654 ,0.9560464 ,0.1675681 ,0.5562341 ,0.9843035 ,0.06160958 ,0.2305416 ,0.7073786 ,0.8254209 ,0.5746259…
Read More
It’s The End Of The World Again
Posted inStatistics

It’s The End Of The World Again

It's only a matter of time. This world had a beginning, and all created things have beginnings and ends. Thus, this world will have an end. I want to stress…
Read More
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
Posted inStatistics

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Some waffle-stuffed Belgian judge has threatened to toss little Nate Cofnas into a Belgian hoosegow, presumably on the French side where they serve stale cheese, bad baguettes and English wine,…
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Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
Posted inStatistics

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

Announcement: I wrote this Class for a general audience. Anybody can read it. And should if they are interested in Science. There's only a little notation, which can be ignored…
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The Great Effeminization of the Academy
Posted inStatistics

The Great Effeminization of the Academy

An expected and obvious consequence of the Great Effeminization of the Academy is that a great deal of academic output is now about the feelings of academics. From the peer-reviewed…
Read More
The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly
Posted inStatistics

The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly

I can't recommend the debate---surely too strong a word; let's instead say the sit-down---between Ross Douthat, a New York Times employee, and Stephen Pinker, an academic, except for one thing.…
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Posted inStatistics

Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics

Here is a recent Lancet cover, which itself is an excellent argument doctors, which is to say body mechanics, ought not to be put in charge of public health. My…
Read More
Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)
Posted inStatistics

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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  1. John M on Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto WattApril 13, 2026

    It always annoys me when people try to guess what God is specifically going to do.

  2. JH on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 10, 2026

    Would Trump attack China or Russia? Why not? Bullying is wrong. War is wrong. [H]is specialty is obfuscation… lol. And…

  3. JH on Justice Ketanji RoarsApril 10, 2026

    Although I have not taught many Black students, I have observed that the most academically talented Black students perform at…

  4. JH on Proof!April 10, 2026

    Lincoln’s ”Fragments on Slavery” c. 1854 If A. can prove, however conclusively, that he may, of right, enslave B.—why may…

  5. Brendan P O'Sullivan on Class 85: Proper Scores of Model GoodnessApril 9, 2026

    Bill - An opportunity to help fellow Vets! Look at the following - regarding jet fuel exposure to vets -…

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