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Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
Posted inStatistics

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Richard Dawkins reminds us of the important but neglected Big Muscles Fallacy: "I spent three days trying to persuade myself that Claudia is not conscious. I failed." Here's an equivalent…
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Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

A curious question made its way around the interwebs recently, and not for the first time. By itself, it does not appear to be that interesting. And it isn't, really.…
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UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
Posted inStatistics

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Regular readers know I have been predicting our return to the 1970s (here and here). Not directly, you understand. There will be no bell-bottom pants or leisure suits, but only…
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Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
Posted inStatistics

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
Posted inStatistics

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

A lot of conversations about the differences between the races go like this one about sex. "Briggs, somebody told me you said men are taller than women." I said it.…
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What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
Posted inStatistics

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Might I beg you, if you find it useful, to show this article to those who are growing concerned or agitated about this story? Don't miss the ending. We hear…
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Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
Posted inStatistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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  1. spaceranger on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    Two things I can never figure out are UFO pictures and police body cam videos.

  2. Dave Narby on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    There's been some pretty clear ones lately, at least to the resolution of the camera used, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcEEXLOORLI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zkZ3x1T0QU This…

  3. James on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    The same logic applies to the phenomenon of "ball lightning". It sounds credible, but there are no photos of it…

  4. Uncle Mike on Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You WednesdayMay 21, 2026

    Please enjoy your well-earned respite. Warmth is indeed a boon and blessing -- it's in the eighties here today and…

  5. Cary D Cotterman on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 20, 2026

    There are clear photographs of just about any phenomenon imaginable, regardless of how fast, distant, small, or ephemeral it may…

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