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William M. Briggs

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Posted inCulture Statistics

Goon Squad Fails To Distract Public From Fact That Climate Models Stink: Update 3

If you're new to the site, don't forget to check out the Classic Posts page. Our continuing walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is postponed until next week. Feel free to…
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Posted inStatistics

Response To Trenberth Over “Why Models Run Hot”

Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. A reporter from Nature who could not be brought to understand science was more important than fallacy…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Reporting On So-Called Climate Reporters: Update 4

Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. The first section of this article contains background on the subject which should be read, the second…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Give Up Carbon For Lent?

Ought to be easy to give up carbon for Lent, as the Global Catholic Climate Movement suggests1. Step one: don't exhale and don't eat---your breath and food are chock full…
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Posted inStatistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…
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Posted inStatistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…
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Posted inStatistics

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…
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Posted inStatistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…
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