William M. Briggs

Yuval Harari’s Homo Deus: Marketing The Materialist World View — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp

Reading your typical book is like sitting on the grandstand of a racetrack. You see the race cars whizzing by, and you sort of feel the excitement of the race,…

Statistics

Let’s Look At All Cause Deaths Again

It's been a while since we looked at all-cause deaths (some of this is for the new readers). This is the one statistic that can't be cooked or juiced; or…

Culture

Take This Fun Political Quiz Inspired By Canadian Truckers

QUIZ Test your knowledge of politics and political theory with this Fun Quiz! 1. Name the form of government in which it is illegal to criticize the regime. 2. Define…

SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Christ Was Not The Holy Ghost’s Human Son

Previous post. Combining two weeks into one, the lessons being so short. THAT CHRIST WAS NOT THE SON OF THE HOLY SPIRIT IN THE FLESH 1 Now, although Christ is…

Culture

Experts—Trust Them!—Discover Coronadoom Misinformation Causes Depressive Symptoms

Gettin' bad out there, friends. Lot of people poppin' happy pills. Pills, that is, designed by Experts to make them happy. Or what Experts say passes for happy. Pills that,…

Philosophy Statistics

Solved: The Best Bayesian Prior To Use In Every Situation

Kevin Gray is back with another question, this time about priors. His last led to the post "Was Fisher Wrong? Whether Or Not Statistical Models Are Needed." (The answer was…

Book review

Celebrity Scientist Neil deGrasse Tyson Speaks — Excerpt From Everything You Believe Is Wrong

This excerpt comes in Chapter 20, Science. First comes the Science Is Self-Correcting Fallacy, followed by the My Grant Was Funded Therefore My Theory Is True Fallacy, which is a…

Statistics

There Was No Panic In The Similar 1957-58 Pandemic; But Panic Galore For Coronadoom

There is much fun contrasting earlier approaches to pandemics and our Great Global Panic, now entering it's third---and final?---year. Let's take the 1957-1958 Asian (the novel H2N2) flu, the worst…

Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
"their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…
Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…
gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026
Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…
Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.
Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026
I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.

William M. Briggs

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

The Great Effeminization of the Academy