I am, once more, reliving my Air Force days. I am strapped into a seat designed for a midget, jetting across the Wild Blue towards the shores of Lake Michigan, where I […]
The McShane and Wyner Gordie Howe Treatment Of Mann
Many—as in lots and lots—of folks wrote in and asked me to review the McShane and Wyner paper. Thanks! Gordie Howe—Mr Hockey to you—didn’t need his stick, his hockey stick, to plaster […]
AMO+PDO = Temperature Variation: One Graph Does Not Says It All
Introduction Anthony Watts over at Watts Up With That?—incidentally, a blog title infinitely superior to “William M. Briggs, Statistician”—asked me to comment on Joe D’Aleo and Don Easterbrook’s new paper, “Multidecadal tendencies […]
Global Average Temperature: What It Isn’t
Update See also: Global Average Temperature: An Exceedingly Brief Introduction To Bayesian Predictive Inference Word is going round that Richard Muller is leading a group of physicists, statisticians, and climatologists to re-estimate […]
Global Average Temperature: An Exceedingly Brief Introduction To Bayesian Predictive Inference
Update This post is mandatory reading for those discussing global average temperature. I mean it: exceedingly brief and given only with respect to a univariate time series, such as operationally define global […]
Climate Science And Significance: Wall Street Journal Takes On Statistics
Coin Flips and Dice Rolls Doug Keenan has a must-read piece in the Wall Street Journal on the time series analysis of global temperature (Thanks to Randy, Roger, and John for the […]
Demonstration of how smoothing causes inflated certainty (and egos?)
I’ve had a number of requests to show how smoothing inflates certainty, so I’ve created a couple of easy simulations that you can try in the privacy of your own home. The […]
Random topics
I use the word “random” in the sense that you did not know what topics I would select today. And I use the word know in its logical sense. On Polling From […]
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