Somebody at Steve McIntyre’s Climate Audit kindly linked to an old article of mine entitled “Do not smooth series, you hockey puck!”, a warning that Don Rickles might give. Smoothing creates artificially […]
Which combination of President and Congress spent the most?
We’re probably getting tired of this topic (I am), but many people requested that we look at the same data but take into account the influence of Congress. This is the same […]
Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
21 October 2011: Welcome Register fans! Comments on this site are always close after 8 days to control spam. To see more about BEST, read this post. The advice which forms the […]
Random topics
I use the word “random” in the sense that you did not know what topics I would select today. And I use the word know in its logical sense. On Polling From […]
Demonstration of how smoothing causes inflated certainty (and egos?)
I’ve had a number of requests to show how smoothing inflates certainty, so I’ve created a couple of easy simulations that you can try in the privacy of your own home. The […]
How to look at the RSS satellite-derived temperature data
It’s already well known that the Remote Sensing Systems satellite-derived temperature data has released the January figures: the finding is that it’s colder this January than it has been for some time. […]
Do not calculate correlations after smoothing data
This subject comes up so often and in so many places, and so many people ask me about it, that I thought a short explanation would be appropriate. You may also search […]
CO2 and Temperature: which predicts which?
Parts of this analysis were suggested by Allan MacRae, who kindly offered comments on the exposition of this article which greatly improved its readability. The article is incomplete, but I wanted to […]
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