No, the title of today’s post is not a joke, even though it has often been used that way in the past. The title was inspired by yesterday’s Wall Street Journal article […]
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I
The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what is a […]
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II
The models in Part I might not have “felt right” to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted. This is […]
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III
We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical for both, […]
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV
In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used probability model: […]
Brain Atrophy Responsible For Religious Belief?
Readers can help me choose the best metaphor. (1) A snowball which starts the size of a pea but gains in strength and speed as it rolls downhill, mindlessly consuming all in […]
Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking
This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that “predictive” or “observational” Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to frequentist hypothesis […]
Statistics Mailbag
Because of my new gig and then my two-week sojourn at Cornell I am way behind in acknowledging all the emails and blog tips I have received. Nearly all stories here originate […]
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