Posted inStatistics
A Correction: I’ve Been Misquoted
On Thursday, 3 February of this year I was called by Saginaw News reporter Deborah Brown, who asked me, among other things, about claims made by folks like Al Gore…
Posted inStatistics
Two Open Letters To Congress On Climate Change, And A New Third
There are two open letters shot off to Congress these last days, one from "alarmist" scientists and the other from "denialist" scientists1. Those pejoratives were not picked by me, but…
Posted inFun Statistics
And The Winner Goes To…Oscar Statistics Wrap Up
Our model was right: The King's Speech won. In this weekend's Oscar Statistics post, we modeled the chances of each nominated movie. We guessed that the movie most likely to…
Posted inStatistics
Global Average Temperature: What It Isn’t
Update See also: Global Average Temperature: An Exceedingly Brief Introduction To Bayesian Predictive Inference Word is going round that Richard Muller is leading a group of physicists, statisticians, and climatologists…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Global Average Temperature: An Exceedingly Brief Introduction To Bayesian Predictive Inference
Update This post is mandatory reading for those discussing global average temperature. I mean it: exceedingly brief and given only with respect to a univariate time series, such as operationally…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Group Differences: An Exceedingly Brief Introduction To Bayesian Predictive Inference
Read the first entry in this series. All of what follows will appear ridiculously obvious to those who have had no statistical training. Those who have must struggle. In a…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part II (update)
Read Part I: Again, the text (up to this part) has been corrected and expanded. Recall our overarching---our only---goal. We want to know whether the sweet old lady "has the…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part III (update)
Read Part I, Part II. The text has again been expanded and corrected. We have our model in hand. "Has the ability", our model, says (see Part II) that the…
