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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Old Lodge Skins’ Prayer Of Thanksgiving
Posted inFun

Old Lodge Skins’ Prayer Of Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving! I’m grateful to all of you, especially those who support my work of freeing Science from gross over-certainty, thankful for what I’ve learned from you, for your patience,…
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The Apples In A Sack Paradox: Solve It Or You Get No Pie Tomorrow
Posted inStatistics

The Apples In A Sack Paradox: Solve It Or You Get No Pie Tomorrow

Via Alexander Bogomolny: At 1 minute to midnight 10 apples fall into a sack. The same happens at half a minute to midnight, then at a quarter minute to midnight,…
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Antichrist, by Saint Robert Bellarmine
Posted inStatistics

Antichrist, by Saint Robert Bellarmine

To head this book review, I asked Grok to create an image of the Antichrist in this third, and final, year of reigning over mankind. I asked the model to…
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Donald vs Ishmael vs Esau — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inStatistics

Donald vs Ishmael vs Esau — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

I haven’t written for a year. Since Donald won his third term. The reason is because I wanted to see if he learned any lessons. Therefore, I had to watch…
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Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong Way
Posted inStatistics

Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong Way

Do not conduct or trust any regression, or any probability model, before you understand what "control" means and does NOT mean. NO CLASS NEXT WEEK. Video https://youtu.be/_ON42EEGrb4 Links: YouTube *…
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Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says Researcher
Posted inStatistics

Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says Researcher

Think about how great physics can become, Chanda Prescod-Weinstein (what a perfect name) asks us, if black women can be made to think like White men. She goes on and…
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On That “Bombshell German Study” That “Exposes the PCR Test Fraud That Locked Down the World”
Posted inStatistics

On That “Bombshell German Study” That “Exposes the PCR Test Fraud That Locked Down the World”

The title is lifted from an email I received, one of many asking me to look into the paper "A calibration of nucleic acid (PCR) by antibody (IgG) tests in…
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Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In Sports
Posted inStatistics

Masking Morality With Science: Men Pretending To Be Women In Sports

There is little point in talking about women pretending to be men in sports, because everybody knows that when these women go up against men, they lose. (There may be…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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