Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part IV
Part I, II, III, IV, V. We have before us X1 to X156. We started by assuming that something, called T, caused these data to take the values it did.…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part V
Part I, II, III, IV, V. We started by assuming each X was measured without error, that each observation was perfectly certain. This is not always so for real X.…
Posted inStatistics
Autism Caused By Highways?
Epidemiology is nothing if not a productive field. All that is needed for success is a database (larger the better), a disease (any will do), and some minor facility with…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV
Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…
Posted inCulture Fun Statistics
Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference
Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t
Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part IV (finally the end!)
Read Part I, Part II, Part III. This is the missing Part, which was promised a year ago. We're all tired of this subject, and there are so many other…
Posted inStatistics
Supplement For Your Tea
This is meant to clear up some confusion in the Lady Tasting Tea series, which featured a problem people hoped would be easy. Here are two possible outcomes, comparing the…
