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Michigan Criminal Misdemeanor Fear Face Fiat: $500 Fine
Posted inStatistics

Michigan Criminal Misdemeanor Fear Face Fiat: $500 Fine

The Godmother (Cuomo) has the worst record as far as caused deaths go---how about that nursing home debacle?---and California's Gavin Newsome is the most oleaginous "leader", but Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer…
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Coronavirus Update XXII: Mask Madness: Updates At End
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update XXII: Mask Madness: Updates At End

As I was writing this (Monday morning), a minor government official came on the radio and promised "We haven't seen the worst yet." What accounts for this monumental level of…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: Against Those Who Attack Vows
Posted inStatistics

Summary Against Modern Thought: Against Those Who Attack Vows

Previous post. I swear it's okay to sometime swear. AGAINST THOSE WHO ATTACK VOWS 1 It has seemed foolish to some people to bind oneself by a vow to obey…
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You’ve Reached The Best Place For Online Climate Change Misinformation
Posted inStatistics

You’ve Reached The Best Place For Online Climate Change Misinformation

I, and many of my pals, have been named a sort of scofflaw by three people named Kathie, Hywel, and Saffron. Kathie, Hywel, and Saffron wrote the peer-reviewed article "Online…
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AI Getting Too Good At Predicting Crime, So It’s Being Purged
Posted inStatistics

AI Getting Too Good At Predicting Crime, So It’s Being Purged

If all we know about an American male is that he is an American male, we can use data on observed rates American males committed crimes to predict that this…
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Coronavirus Update XXI: Calm Down! Record Testing Is Why There Are Record “Cases”
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update XXI: Calm Down! Record Testing Is Why There Are Record “Cases”

OHNOWE'REALLGOINGTODIE---AGAIN! Look at this plot, the number of daily COVID tests in the US, according to the COVID-19 tracking project. So far, since the start of the insanity, there have…
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Summary Against Modern Thought:  Another Error About Continence
Posted inStatistics

Summary Against Modern Thought: Another Error About Continence

Previous post. Our briefest week! Say a prayer of thanks to our good saint. ANOTHER ERROR CONCERNING PERPETUAL CONTINENCE 1 Moreover, there have been some others who, though not disapproving…
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Coronavirus Update XX: Lockdown Madness 2.0: BIG UPDATE
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update XX: Lockdown Madness 2.0: BIG UPDATE

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
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  1. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  2. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.

  4. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    The best explanation I saw on twitter was this rephrasing: "There is a blender. Jumping into the blender will kill…

  5. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I rephrased the question to remove "red" and "blue" priming words and asked the wife: "Space aliens create two buttons,…

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