Posted inStatistics
About That Lefties-Drink-More-Than-Conservatives Study
"Honey? Did you meet our new neighbors?" "Not yet. Why?" "I'm a little worried about them. They have an 'I heart NPR' sticker on their Prius." "Oh, God. Pass me…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Everything Wrong With P-Values Under One Roof
Update 8 January 2019. This post has been superseded! There is an official paper of this material, greatly expanded and vetted. SEE THIS NEW POST. THE NEW PAPER: Here is…
Posted inStatistics
Scientific Forecasts, Not Scenarios, For Climate Policy—Guest Post by J. Scott Armstrong
The human race has prospered by relying on forecasts that the seasons will follow their usual course, while knowing they will sometimes be better or worse. Are things different now?…
Posted inStatistics
Daily Links & Comments
@1 False widow spiders on the march! Under orders from global warming. Link @2 Washington Post's astonishing database of non-profit shenanigans. The big secret is millions go missing from NGOs:…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Logical Probability Data Analysis, Measurement Error Example
Read the introduction to this first. If you don't, you will be lost, lost, lost. Logical probability answer to B The answer to B follows from A. The picture is…
Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics
Voting (And Wisdom Of The Crowds)
First read Wisdom of the Crowds (and Voting). There are in this great land of ours some 315 million souls. Citizens, I mean. Another 12 millions (or so) are, as…
Posted inFun Statistics
My Complete And Utter Lack Of Business Sense
I can derive the Omega equation, can tell you why clouds float, and I know what number comes after א0, but I couldn't sell fire to an Eskimo. Not for…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Why Falsifiability, Though Flawed, Is Alluring: Part I
A theory is said not to be scientific unless it is falsifiable. This is an understandable definition, but as something philosophically useful it fails because most theories scientists hold are…
