Posted inStatistics
Question About Non-Normal Distributions
Thanks to everybody who sent in links, story tips, and suggestions. Because of my recent travel and pressures of work, I'm (again) way behind in answering these. I do appreciate…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
2012 UEFA European Football Championship And What Probability Is
A pair of statisticians have calculated that, as of 10 June, the probability that Germany takes the 2012 Euro Cup is 26.8%. Russia, they say, comes in with the next…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Teaching Journal: Day 7
The joke is old and hoary and so well known that I risk the reader's ire for repeating it. But it contains a damning truth. Most academic statistical studies are…
Posted inStatistics
Does Averaging Incorrect Data Give A Result That Is Less Incorrect? Climate Modeling
Another question from the statistics mailbag: Dear Matt: I recently got into a discussion with a CAGW "believer" and of course the discussion turned to global average temperature (whatever that…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance
Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II
McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…
Posted inStatistics
Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part I
This series originally began 5 February 2012. Part I, II, III, IV, V. We've gone on and on about how to think about time series, but we are having trouble…
Posted inStatistics
Reading Spencer’s Radiation Paper; Polar Bears Flap: Scientist Under Investigation
Thanks to all the readers who have altered me to Roy Spencer and William Braswell's new paper, "On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth's Radiant Energy…
