# The Gremlins Of MCMC: Or, Computer Simulations Are Not What You Think

I don’t think we’re clear on what simulation is NOT. RANDOMNESS IS NOT NECESSARY, for the simple reason randomness is merely a state of knowledge. Hence this classic post from…

# How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part VIII — Starting Stan

Review! You must at least review the first lessons—all class material is on one page for ease. I’ll have more words about the mysticism of simulation, but I’ve said it…

# Why The Bootstrap Seems To Work—And Why It Produces Over-Certainty

Let’s drag the statistician’s hoary threadbare ball-filled bag out of the cupboard to make a point. In it are 3 white balls and 2 black. Using the statistical syllogism, we…

# How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part X: Survival Analysis

Query: now that I’m a video master, would people like videos of these lessons? I don’t see how they’d help much, but who knows. Let me know below or via…

# How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part I New (Free) Software Introduction

Introduction Here’s what we always want, but never get, using the old ways of doing statistics: The probability that some proposition Y is true given certain assumptions. Like this:     …

# E-Classes (& Other Changes) Coming

Many changes coming.. Site fixes You’ve seen the new theme by now. Many more people were reading on “devices” and the old format was not well suited. Plus, the typography…

# Books & Free Class

Class & code links are at the bottom. This is the permanent page for Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics. E-copies can be had from Springer in EPUB…