# Search results for ‘random chance’

## Dear Quacks & Experts: Your Loss Function Is Not Our Loss Function

Note to the colleague who wrote me. I lost your email! You asked excellent questions about the post Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix, which I meant to answer, […]

## Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix

A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, “Doc, I saw that new ad. The […]

## Uncertainty Discussed At Vox Popoli

Vox Day kindly reprinted the review of Uncertainty by Jayne at the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons. Vox also has a copy of the book himself and there may be more […]

## Richard Carrier’s Argument To Show God’s Existence Unlikely Is Invalid And Unsound

In the comment section to an earlier piece of mine on Strange Notions, Richard Carrier invited me to “interact” with him through his article “Neither Life nor the Universe Appears Intelligently Designed”, […]

## Randomness And The “Null” Hypothesis

Last week of teaching! Randomness is not a cause. Neither is chance. It is always a mistake to say things like “explainable by chance”, “random change”, “the differences are random”, “unlikely to […]

## The Mysticism Of Simulations: Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Sampling, And Their Alternatives

Introit Ever heard of somebody “simulating” normal “random” or “stochastic” variables, or perhaps “drawing” from a normal or some other distribution? Such things form the backbone of many statistical methods, including bootstrapping, […]

## Evolution Under Fixed Constraints; Or, Why Random Changes Don’t Cut It

See if this analogy makes sense. A ramp onto which you loose a ball, which can roll down and fall into one of three slots. The configuration is such that the ball […]

## On Nate Silver’s Predictions: Which Side Of The Probability Equation Are We On?

When I checked FiveThirtyEight.com’s Senate prediction, it said “Republicans have a 72.3% chance of winning a majority.” There were also words that the “probability that each party will win control of the […]