Everybody has read, or seen adaptations of, Bram Stocker’s documentation of Dracula, the undead count, unlate of Transylvania. From these pages and films, we all know how to kill a vampire. In […]

## On Cause In Probability Models

Note This post originally ran 11 June 2019 under the title “When Cause Is Not A Cause — Another Anti-P-Value Argument”. The post itself is extracted and modified from this set of […]

## Local & Necessary Truths In Mathematical Proofs — And Probability

This video requires little math beyond what used to be taught in college. Its speaker is Terry Tao, who some say is the world’s best living mathematician. Its (fun—truly) subject is gaps […]

## Subjective Probability Is Objective

Because certain forms of Bayesian probability, particularly so-called subjective probability, are being taken up in quantum mechanics, it’s well to understand just what subjective probability is, if it’s anything, and how belief […]

## What’s The Probability Of A Nuclear War?

For readers in a hurry, here’s the answer: There is no probability of a nuclear war. Nor of a conventional one. Nor even of you being victor in your next King Of […]

## Probability Thought Experiment With NNT: Reader Question

From reader Ernst, this interesting probability/statistics question. First, NNT = number needed to treat, which is, stealing from this site to save time, “The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is the number […]

## When Does A Small Probability Mean Impossibility?

Question from reader Richard Stevens: A professional scientist, holding an MS in one of the hard sciences, addressed the argument that the probability of creating a protein or an enzyme by neo-Darwinian […]

## Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think

Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article “The concept of probability is not as simple as you think” by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular theories analyse […]

## Recent Comments