Nature magazine definitely announced, daring to be doubted, “Science and politics are inseparable”. They followed this up with, “We cannot stand by and let science be undermined”, and so endorsed Payoff Joe […]
Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix
A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, “Doc, I saw that new ad. The […]
On Nate Silver’s Predictions: Which Side Of The Probability Equation Are We On?
When I checked FiveThirtyEight.com’s Senate prediction, it said “Republicans have a 72.3% chance of winning a majority.” There were also words that the “probability that each party will win control of the […]
Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability
Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory. I’ll give […]
Do You Believe In Global Warming Because Of The Seriousness Of The Charges?
An activist tells you, “Based on my theory of rampant, out-of-control global warming, otters, driven mad by the heat, will take to the streets and destroy mankind, just like apes do in […]
Explanation Vs Prediction
Introduction There isn’t as much space between explanation and prediction as you’d think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here’s how it all works. I’ll illustrate […]
The Consensus Fallacy
Here is the word-for-word opening in the Vox “explanatory journalism” tidbit “John Oliver shows how to debate climate deniers“: That climate change is occurring, and that humans are the primary cause, is […]
What Regression Really Is: Part II
Read Part I Let’s continue our example. Suppose our regression shows that the probability of a Hate score greater than 5 is 60% for men and 80% for women—for people we have […]
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