Here it is, friends, the one complete universal simple function, the only function you will ever need to fit any—I said any—dataset x. And all it takes is one—I said one—parameter! . […]

A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, “Doc, I saw that new ad. The […]

Here it is! The one, the only, the peer-reviewed (and therefore true) “Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Solving the Evidential Crisis” (the link is to the pdf, which is 11 MB; there are […]

Difficulties “Fundamental physics today faces the problem that empirical testing of its core hypotheses is very difficult to achieve and even more difficult to be made conclusive,” says Richard Dawid in his […]

Had a named person in statistics (Andrew Althouse) ask me about randomization, which he likes, and which I do not. “I want to compare outcomes for a specific patient group getting surgery […]

What makes a theory true? Bad question, that. Conflates too easily why a theory is true with our knowledge whether a theory is true. Both are subjects of great interest, but they […]

I received this thoughtful, and may I say highly accurate, email from reader EN, which I include in full below. I removed the age and name to protect EN’s identity. I also […]

Yep I’ve disagreed with Judea Pearl before on causality, and I do so again below; but first some areas of agreement. Some deep agreement at that. Pearl has a new book out […]