I've pointed out many times some of the weaknesses of traditional statistical practices, and how the routine use of "hypothesis testing" leads to an ever-growing mountain of Broken Science. Some…

Bayes's theorem, while nice, is not necessary. What counts is the relation between sets of propositions; between our assumptions and what we want to know. Bayes can even slow you…

Chant this until it becomes part of your soul: There is no such thing as unconditional probability. Once you have that, endless "problems" people have "discovered" about probability vanish. Today…

This week starts Part II of the Class: scientific modeling, in all its glories and, alas, failures. Science is model happy, and judges too often the goodess of models by…

From time to time people come across what seems like paradoxes which invalidate probability (as logic). These are excellent devices to sharpen thought, but they all suffer from one of…

WARNING! If you're attempting to read this via email and not on the site, you might encounter problems: the text might look like gibberish. The LaTeX interpreter, which I need…

Is Trump a Russian Asset? (This question accounts for the change in banner image this week.) What happens to belief when people learn new evidence about this curious proposition? Theory…