I stole today’s title from David Papineau’s essay “Thomas Bayes and the crisis in science“, which many readers sent in. … Continue Reading Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks
I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is “no … Continue Reading There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either
P-values should be banned. Every use of them involves a fallacy or mistake in thinking. “P-values have some good uses.” … Continue Reading Stop Using P-values & Parameter-Centric Methods
Six years ago I wrote a small, daily piece (Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn’t Exist) about the use … Continue Reading Poor Richard Carrier Goes On The Offensive
Note An earlier version of this post was accidentally sent out in unedited form. My enemies caused me to hit … Continue Reading Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?
For most, Mencius Moldbug will need no introduction; for those who do not know him, this review of his work … Continue Reading Against Moldbug’s Reservationist Epistemology: Reason Alone Is Not Reasonable
Back to our Edge series. Sean Carroll says Bayes’s Theorem should be better known. He outlines the theorem in the familiar updating-prior-belief formula. But, as this modified classic article shows, this is not the most important facet of Bayesian theory. … Continue Reading Bayesian Statistics Isn’t What You Think
Quoting from a post on vampires, “In Bayesian inference, you start with some initial beliefs (called ‘Bayesian priors’ or just … Continue Reading The Bayesian Metaphor Can Do More Harm Than Good: Update