It is always hilarious when people rail against free will, who are especially flummoxed that Common Man believes in free will, and say “If only people realized their choices weren’t free, they […]

Let’s take a break from the insanity and wade into cool waters to start the weekend. I’ll take it that you’ve watched this video, which purports to give a solution to Newcomb’s […]

Because certain forms of Bayesian probability, particularly so-called subjective probability, are being taken up in quantum mechanics, it’s well to understand just what subjective probability is, if it’s anything, and how belief […]

I received this thoughtful, and may I say highly accurate, email from reader EN, which I include in full below. I removed the age and name to protect EN’s identity. I also […]

Yep I’ve disagreed with Judea Pearl before on causality, and I do so again below; but first some areas of agreement. Some deep agreement at that. Pearl has a new book out […]

Here it is! The one, the only, the peer-reviewed (and therefore true) “Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Solving the Evidential Crisis” (the link is to the pdf, which is 11 MB; there are […]

From reader Nick L comes this question (in which I hope I have properly rendered the Greek): I am still regularly enjoying your blog. I notice one of your consistent claims is […]

A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, “Doc, I saw that new ad. The […]