Posted inStatistics
What A Winter
Your uncle sergeant Briggs is forced to go AWOL the rest of this week. This has been some kind of winter. A lot of joyous whitestuff, and plenty of wind.…
Posted inStatistics
FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability
The FDA should have gone probability. But they came close. They went Bayes. So announced FDA boss Marty Makar last week. Here's the document "Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical…
Posted inStatistics
Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!
The signal+noise notion of time series is usually wrong. Most time series are pure signal, no noise. And since they are accidental series, models of them are correlational not causal.…
Posted inStatistics
AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)
Here is a headline from Forbes 4 August 2022: Here, five short days later, is a headline from The Independent 9 August 2022: It is possible to reconcile these two…
Posted inStatistics
Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting
The clearest, or at least funniest, example of confirmation bias in recent politics was when New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich tweeted "Given the committees that I have served on, I…
Posted inStatistics
Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money
I have never, and maybe you, too, have never met any gambler who is not ahead overall, or at least even. Sure, every gambler will admit to losses here and…
Posted inStatistics
Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series
The following conversation from an alleged Class follower (CF) and an academic statistician (AS) may or may not have taken place. Whichever, it comes at a perfect time for our…
Posted inStatistics
The Consent Fallacy
The consent argument is so strong in our culture that its truth is almost self-evident. It says as long as two people consent in an act, that act is therefore moral. Or,…
