Class. links are at the bottom.
This is the permanent page for Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics. E-copies can be had from Springer in EPUB and PDF formats. Amazon has a Kindle version (but I’ve heard bad things about its formatting).
Important student note: apparently many universities have a deal with Springer such that you can read for free the book on your university’s library site.
Uncertainty’s a hit! 821 paper copies sold and 7,915 downloads: “This means your book was one of the top 25% most downloaded eBooks in the relevant
SpringerLink eBook Collection in 2016.”
Note: the more attractive cover image was a gift from Wrath of Gnon.
The Big Gist
- All probability is conditional;
- Probability is not decision.
From those simple and proved truths flows these consequences:
- Probability cannot discern cause;
- Therefore no hypothesis test, by wee p-value or Bayes factor, should ever be used;
- Parameters are of no interest to man or beast;
- Only verified probability models should be used and in a predictive sense;
- To understand cause and provide explanation we must look to nature, essence, and power.
Therefore buy the book and be the first on your block to come to a wondrous, penetrating understanding of probability & statistics. Out with the new and in with the old! The older, better, and true understanding of cause and probability, that is. Eschew mathematics for the sake of mathematics, flee ad hocery in all its forms and wiles, and put probability to its intended real use!
This includes you, too, computer scientists, with your big deep data neural net machine “learning” fuzzy algorithms which are all probability models with (admittedly) better names.
Reviews & Additional Material
Review at The New Criterion (link)
Review at The Philosopher by Thomas Scarborough (link).
Review at Vox Popoli (link)
Review at Mathematical Association of America (link)
Review by Don Aitkin (link)
Review by Brett Stevens at Amerika (link)
Review at Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons (link)
Review by Thorsten Jorgen Ottosen, Director of Research (link)
Every Result Of Unsupervised Learning Is Correct; Or, All Learning Is Supervised (link)
The Gremlins Of MCMC: Or, Computer Simulations Are Not What You Think (link)
You—Yes, You—Are Doing Probability & Statistics Wrong — WMBriggs Podcast. (link)
The Hierarchy Of Models: From Causal (Best) To Statistical (Worst) (link)
The Solution To The Doomsday Argument (link)
Real Versus Statistical Control (link)
Formal Logic And Probability (link)
Bayesian Statistics Isn’t What You Think (link)
Falsifiability Is Not That Useful (link)
The Difference Between Essential And Empirical Models (link)
So, You Think You’re Psychic?, a skeptical framework for testing for would-be psychics. Free PDF (recommended), or buy the hardcover. This was written long before I figured out the true meaning of probability. It’s past due for an update.