This is the permanent page for all things about Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics. E-copies can be had from Springer in EPUB and PDF formats.
The Big Gist
- All probability is conditional;
- Probability is not decision.
From those simple and proved truths flows these consequences:
- Probability cannot discern cause;
- Therefore no hypothesis test, by wee p-value or Bayes factor, should ever be used;
- Therefore parameters are of no interest to man or beast;
- Therefore verified probability models should be used in a predictive sense only;
- Therefore to understand cause and provide explanation we must look to nature, essence, and power.
Therefore buy the book and be the first on your block to come to a wondrous, penetrating understanding of probability & statistics. Out with the new and in with the old! The older, better, and true understanding of cause and probability, that is. Eschew mathematics for the sake of mathematics, flee ad hocery in all its forms and wiles, and put probability to its intended real use!
This includes you, too, computer scientists, with your big deep data neural net machine “learning” fuzzy algorithms which are all probability models by (admittedly) cuter and more precious names.
Forward: Written by Steve Goldberg
I’ll have questions for homework, errata for the errors placed by my enemies post production, podcasts, and more.
Springer Official Site
Click here: Apparently you can buy individual chapters. Or an e-book.
Important student note: apparently many universities have a deal with Springer such that you can read the book on the universities’ library site. I haven’t found it at Cornell (where I have access) yet. Stay tuned here for future word.
Note: the more attractive cover image was provide as a gift by Wrath of Gnon.
Click to enlarge; re-size at leisure.
So, You Think You’re Psychic?, a skeptical framework for testing for would-be psychics. Free PDF (recommended), or buy the hardcover. This was written long before I figured out the true meaning of probability. It’s due for a healthy update.