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Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
Posted inStatistics

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Richard Dawkins reminds us of the important but neglected Big Muscles Fallacy: "I spent three days trying to persuade myself that Claudia is not conscious. I failed." Here's an equivalent…
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Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

A curious question made its way around the interwebs recently, and not for the first time. By itself, it does not appear to be that interesting. And it isn't, really.…
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UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
Posted inStatistics

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Regular readers know I have been predicting our return to the 1970s (here and here). Not directly, you understand. There will be no bell-bottom pants or leisure suits, but only…
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Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
Posted inStatistics

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
Posted inStatistics

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

A lot of conversations about the differences between the races go like this one about sex. "Briggs, somebody told me you said men are taller than women." I said it.…
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What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
Posted inStatistics

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Might I beg you, if you find it useful, to show this article to those who are growing concerned or agitated about this story? Don't miss the ending. We hear…
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Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
Posted inStatistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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  1. N.S. Palmer on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026

    The Academic Fallacy is what I called "the Existentialist Fallacy:" "Certain errors creep into most debates about social policy and…

  2. Cary Cotterman on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026

    I never heard of this Arday buffoon until a couple of weeks ago. As I read through the account of…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026

    @ Uncle Mike Your comment reminds me that I really miss William F Buckley. He was often accused of dredging…

  4. Uncle Mike on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026

    Five stars for the use of "rhodomontade"! I suspect nobody on the faculty at Cambridge knows the word, because they…

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason ArdayAugust 10, 2026

    Hemiagnosia

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