I have returned from a week away from the computer. Announcements to follow tomorrow.
I am going to tell you of several conversations in which I took part over the last week, talks which, taken together, indicate that Barack Obama has almost no chance of winning re-election.
Of course, given my political views, it is always possible that I have misinterpreted the evidence and twisted it so that it conforms to my desires, i.e. that I am wishcasting. Too, I publicly predicted (in January) that Obama would lose, and nobody likes to make a mistake. You may thus want to discount what I tell you accordingly. Or you may want to listen and so back a winning forecast.
I was off from San Francisco to Las Vegas to attend a conference, and then back to the Bay Area for a certain project. This travel produced four cab rides: three of the four cabbies started conversations about politics (the last lectured me why Japanese cars were better than American). I say “started” to indicate that I did not begin any of these chats, nor did I actively direct their courses.
First cabbie (in SF) was Chinese by birth, now (I later learned) American. He apologized for not having a computer (it was busted), which meant I had to pay cash. But it also meant, he said, that he could not pick up riders who the city of San Francisco gave a kind of cab credit card which allowed them to charge rides to the city. This privileged class were “the poor” and those who met a broad (he claimed) definition of “disabled” (“The [last guy] didn’t have problems!”). The cabbie told me he was tired of so many people getting so much for free when he had to work so hard.
Second cabbie (in Vegas) was German by birth, now American. He brought up politics by way of a joke at Mr Obama’s expense, then nervously laughed and said he hoped it wouldn’t bother me. He was thinking of his tip, of course, but I put him at his ease by telling him that I agreed with his quip. He too mentioned having to work while others did not.
Third cabbie (in Vegas) was American by birth, a Hispanic thirty-something ex-civil engineer. He couldn’t stand office confinement. I asked how was business, and he said it was better now. Now? He said that since the mayor had acted in response to some disparaging comments Mr Obama made about ceasing business trips to Vegas, things were better. Cabbie said he used to like Obama, but “he shouldn’t say things like that.”
The conference itself contained a number of lawyers whose practices involve them with the government. I heard from and talked with several. I apologize that I must be vague about details.
One lawyer related a tale in which his company had settled a certain suit with opposition lawyers, only to see the government, unbidden, step in at the last moment and invalidate the settlement. The government then imposed its own settlement, mandating that a much larger sum be paid to it instead of to customers and opposition lawyers. The government would “manage” this fund and dispense monies to customers who wrote with claims. Few customers did, but the government got to keep the extra monies.
This, many said, was not the first incident, and all thought it would be far from the last. One important lawyer—Jewish (a big block for Obama last election; lawyer mentioned his son’s Bar Mitzvah), self-labeled Democrat—said, “If you think it’s bad now, just wait until after the election. They’re holding things back now until after they come back. It’s gonna be worse.”
Discussion agreed that the government was now staffed by “activists” whose reward system was based on “How big of a penalty can we get? How big of a fine?” Another said, “It’s going to be a regulating and political onslaught.” This was from a gentleman who said, “You know, I’m what’s called a knee-jerk Democrat…” Another person said she had actually worked for Mr Obama during the last election, but said (jokingly?) she was considering working for Mr Romney. And there was much much more.
Mr Obama has, and will keep, the far left. But this will harm him with the so-called “independents” and “Reagan Democrats.” The political elites are saying “It’s Obama in a romp”, but these are the same elites who were blindsided by the recent Supreme Court oral arguments.
Mr Obama also has the “promises” and words of the old Left—but he won’t have their votes. Obama hasn’t a chance.