I am wrong about a lot of things (see my essay “Let them Fail”), and it is a truism to say that I might be wrong about this, but I still think McCain will win.
Naturally, I am aware of wishcasting, and that I might be misleading myself. But I do not think so.
For example, today at the office (in Park Slope, Brooklyn, a very, very solid Democrat stronghold) the subject of race and the election came up. Obviously, some wanted to enjoy carping about how people would not vote for Obama because he is black, a favorite topic. But before anybody could start, I offered, “Yes, I think it is true that many people will vote for Obama because he is black.”
“Well,” it was finally countered, “Black people will certainly…” I said, “Yes, and many whites will vote for him because he is black, too.”
“Enough to counter the people who will note vote for him?” I was asked.
“I have no idea,” I said. “Maybe about the same.”
The point of this story is to show that the support from the far left is as always. Nothing much has changed from that quarter. The same reflexive, non-reflective support given to any Democrat candidate is there, as it always has been. There is nothing unusual or unexpected.
So what is new that has changed, what might be different? Why are people who had been until recently predicting an Obama defeat, are now starting to whimper?
I have been hearing fearful concerns from some McCain supporters lately. They site two sources of evidence for their despair: (1) reports in the media, and (2) the polls.
To listen to any opinion from the New York Times-esque. media is foolish, and these same people who are now wringing their hands because of reports from that quarter will often, and loudly, tell you not to pay them any mind. So it is surprising that they are now giving in to its sway.
So I need to remind them that the media is informed by the polls. Now, before the economic meltdown and government power grab, the polls had McCain ahead. Then…it hit! (Cue Burl Ives). It was that speech by McCain saying that it is morning in America—no, that the economic fundamentals that make America the best country on Earth are sound, that caused the current difficulties.
This insouciance angered a lot of people. “But look at my 401(k)!” they said, and “He better think about what he is saying!”
When next the pollsters came calling, the callees showed their anger—their temporary disfavor—by saying, “Hell, no. I’m not voting for McCain.” Which I need hardly point out is not the same as saying, “I’m for Obama!”
In short, voters are angry (as I was) and are punishing McCain in the only way they can. But when it comes time to draw a veil and punch a chad, they will calm down and and come back to the fold.
Plus, this Tenured (!) Terrorist Bill Ayers flap has not finalized. The only counter arguments I have seen have been of the type, “But Obama was yet a mere child when Ayers was attempting to murder his fellow citizens.” Very true. Which means Obama should have certainly known that this is a man who long ago should have been strung up by the neck. And not a man in whose apartment you hang out.
Incidentally, my dear readers, do not fall into the trap of repeating the phraseology heard on TV. “The unrepentant terrorist Bill Ayers…” is a sentence heard and seen everywhere. The word unrepentant is superfluous as its opposite would only mean that Ayers should get a better gravestone.