William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

Predictions For 2017—Register Yours Today!

Once more unto the breach!

We did well last year, but we had the advantage of a neat unambiguous set of predictions all could make, i.e. the United States primaries and election. This year lacks something of such seeming international importance.

We could ask, What of war with China? Or of China and Japan? Or of Russia and anybody? Will a thermonuclear device be detonated in anger in 2017? Of equal apocalyptic shock, will a major Western university renounce its Diversity initiatives? Will we end the year with the same Pope as we began? Will the world still exist?

Stretch your minds. Remember that forecasts which are not perceived by “average” man as difficult receive little weight. Saying there will be a murder in Chicago, says this fictional mean man, is all but certain. And thus receives little weight in the standings.

Here are mine. What are yours?

1) China comes to blows with somebody, openly and overtly. Their provocative chip-on-the-shoulder sailing around the Pacific will lead to at least one shot being fired, either by or at them.

2) Despite the stupefied mouth-breathing from the State media, President Trump will not be impeached. To impeach is to indict, and to indict means to charge with a crime. There will be no crime with which to charge him.

3) What can you say about Germany that isn’t easy? Take this report: “Merkel asserted that the terror attacks committed by Islamist migrants in Wurzburg, Ansbach, and recently at a Christmas market in Berlin were not attacks on Western civilisation but an attack on ‘refugees’ and Germany’s willkommenskultur (‘welcome culture’).” That statement, and many others like them, is the result of either willful or actual stupidity. Not to be ghoulish, but maybe the thing to forecast is the number of Germans slaughtered by “migrants.” Say, between 50 and 100.

4) Insider baseball. The in camera caritatis offered to Pope Francis by inter alia Cardinal Burke will happen and will be leaked in corrupted form by pro-Bergoglio insiders. This leaking will force the actual details to be leaked, albeit piecemeal. Those in the Church who want to emulate Anglicans will cast the affair as a personal attack on Francis. These people are easy to identify because they refuse to answer the simple dubia. Francis will still be Pope at the end of 2017, because (this prediction goes) he will ignore the correction as he ignored the dubia, and he will issue no concrete statement one way or the other on the matters at heart. No charge of heresy will thus be possible. Will this be the year of the official push for the Modern Church, i.e. a formal split, i.e. schism? In one sense, no, because without the charge of heresy the hierarchy remains as it is. In another sense, like what happened 500 years ago and what is happening to the mainline Protesting Christians now, yes. (This topic will be expanded later.) Look for a tumultuous year!

5) Report: “A CHRISTIAN woman was stabbed by an asylum seeker after he heard her reading from the bible. The 50-year-old woman was only saved by her winter coat when she was attacked with a knife in the accommodation in Timelkam in Voecklamarkt in Upper Austria.” There’s a joke here about being stabbed in the accommodation which we pass by. In Europe, in at least one town, there will be an open battle between natives and “migrants”. The natives will not be police or other official authority, but citizens tired of being told they are the problem. It is too easy a guess to say which side the press and politicos will condemn.

6) Obamacare will not, as it deserves to be, eliminated. It will be attacked piecemeal, but Republicans, even after learning the Lesson of Trump, have no stomach to be called names by the State Media. Great chunks of Obamacare will remain, however much wee tweaks are celebrated as “decimating” it.

7) As I predicted before the election, no wall. I’d lay good money that certain portions of existing structures will be shored and and extended in some press-release worthy way. But no wall.

8) Has the Cathedral, sputtering and teetering as it is, juiced enough fools so that there is a public assassination attempt on Trump? I put this at sixty percentum, but with most of the chance coming early on.

9) Scoffers will scoff, but with so much of the world in retreat from Tradition, Reality, and Being Itself, and the spiritual at no distance from the physical, with the former corrupting the latter, I give you the same warning Scotty gave us at the end of The Thing From Another World: Watch the skies. Let the reader understand.

Only predictions made over the next two weeks will count. And please, please number them and point to the source (if necessary) that can verify them.

33 Comments

  1. My prediction is that we will receive a clear message from God in this year of our Lady of Fatima’s 100th anniversary. As a result many will change their ways.

  2. 1.- The weather will somewhere be unusually hot, or cold, or dry, or humid, or windy, or calm and that will be taken as unmistakable proof of climate change (no pants for this one)

    2.- Somewhere in Europe (Germany or France probably) there will be several days of open war between local citizens and immigrants. It will end when the police and authorities finally defeat their own local citizens

    3.- If the Pope answers the dubia no one will know. There will be some comments by cardinals and bishops in favor and against (just as there are now) but no official document anywhere.

    4.- Trump will tweet and talk, but the legislation and executive decisions will not change much of what is in effect now. Abortion, LBGT, etc, will not advance but will not retreat either. The system always wins.

    5.- Russia’s influence in Middle East will grow. It will continue to battle in Syria and will begin seeing action in Irak. IS will retreat, US troops will withdraw.

  3. 1. The Consecration of Russia by the Pope, in union with all the bishops, will remain unperformed (I know, zero points for that!).
    2. However, a Council of Cardinals and Bishops will be convened to try Pope Francis of the crime of heresy regarding the content of Amoris Laetitia.
    3. This Council will be convened on or around the 100th anniversary of the Miracle of the Sun (October 13). No judgment will be rendered by the end of the year, however.
    4. Another fake news provocation of Russia will be engineered by the military-industrial complex and their fifth-column propaganda arm, the MSM, despite President Trump’s intentions. This will lead to a limited conflict in Europe, which may quickly expand.
    5. Julian Assange will receive significant aid from an unexpected source.

  4. 1. PC-Progressive media will report endlessly on the “Trump homeless” tent cities (which have actually been growing nonstop during Obama’s reign). (Source: Lexis-Nexis and Bing counts on stories with “homeless.”)

    2. Neocon media will report endlessly on the “threat from Sharia,” as Catholic Mexicans and Central Americans rape, pillage, murder, gang-bang, and loot their way across all 50 states. At the same time, they’ll ignore beheadings, massacres, kidnappings, murders, terrorism, and worse committed by Catholics a couple hundred miles from our border–in Mexico–while trumpeting non-stop any such actions by Muslims 5000 miles away in the Middle East. (Source: Lexis-Nexis and Bing counts with “Sharia” compared to “Hispanic crime.”)

    3. The FBI will report breathlessly on more “ISIS plots” it will disrupt. That is, ISIS plots that the FBI itself creates, arms, provides plans for, and then pins on poor semi-retarded schmucks it recruits with money, and promises of power and prestige. (Source: Lexis-Nexis and Bing counts)

    4. Both PC-Prog and Neocon media will pretend that there is not an actual, well-funded, well-armed domestic terrorist threat from Black Lives Matter and related racially-based organizations. Cop assassinations will continue across the USA. Mobs of BLM members will continue to attack, assault, steal, vandalize, and rape non-blacks across the country. (Source: Lexis-Nexis and Bing counts)

    5. Wailing and teeth-knashing will reach record levels in the “Climate Research” community. Trump’s federal government will drastically alter the funding of “climate research,” away from the UN’s assumed man-made CO2 causes disaster scenario. “Climate scientist” martyrs and victim stories will receive wide play in PC-Prog media. (Source: Lexis-Nexis and Bing counts)

    6. The Neocon print media (Wall St. Journal, and Washington Times) will feature “Israel,” or an issue only of importance to Israel, every single day of the year. The WSJ’s Bret Stephens column will star in this effort. (Source: Read WSJ and WashTimes)

    7. Neocon media and advisors will pressure Trump to go to war against Iran. The media blitz will be on a par with the “WMD in Iraq” blitz as the neocons pushed us into Iraq. Will Trump cave and start another war in the Middle East for our “ally?” No. Trump will do the right thing and let the locals sort it out for themselves. (Source: Lexis-Nexis and Bing)

    8. The US Intelligence Community (IC) will be forced to re-organize by Trump’s appointees. PC-Prog moles will leak stories from the IC to discredit the effort to rationalize the most politicized IC in history. (Source: Lexis-Nexis and Bing)

    9. There will be revealed at least one assassination attempt/plot targeting Trump. (Source: Lexis-Nexis and Bing)

  5. 1. Trump will issue a record number of executive orders for a first-year president.
    2. Obamacare will remain intact, with only a few changes.
    3. There will be at least three indictments of high-ranking officials in the Trump administrators … think of the old-buddy network that came out of Plains with Carter.
    4. Bitcoin and gold will hit new highs due to the global war on cash.
    5. Germany will clamp down on anti-immigration dissent and the now-docile Germans will not complain, while France will ignite.
    6. After his base turns against him, Trump will agree that “fake news” is a problem, with some level of speech regulation hitting the internet (to be called the Internet Freedom of Truth Act”).
    7. Because Trump will not realize that politics and business are not the same, he will continue sending tweets that offend the Chinese government, causing some sort of international crisis (Trump will not learn that each government has a tenuous hold on power — just like he does, which depends on the consent of the masses. So a government cannot let itself be portrayed as illegitimate — China, in this instance — without that government taking action against the offender).
    8. Civil war or coup in Venezuela
    9. The US government will catch a terrorist (one the FBI groomed and goaded) holding a wad of $20 bills and declare that anyone holding $20 bills is a terrorist or drug dealer. The conservative base will bleat in agreement. Thus moving the US war on cash to the next phase.
    10. The passive US will move more nuclear warheads into Turkey and/or Romania, thus proving that Russia is the world’s agitator and aggressor.

  6. No impeachment of Trump is an easy call. Even if there is an actual reason for one it would take something like 24 house republicans and all of the democrats before it could happen.

  7. 1. The world will not end.
    2. Driverless cars will not be approved for use on public roads.
    3. Some inventor will claim to have invented a practical flying car. Regulators will insist on treating it like any other airplane.

  8. William M. Briggs will receive government funding for climate-related research and/or consulting.

  9. My 2017 predictions:

    1. A Trump administration will do “pretty good, actually” even as it’s being continually attacked by the MSM. It’ll receive kudos for its moderate and businesslike approach to problems facing the USA and the world. Even leftists will begrudgingly agree that Mr. Trump isn’t the antichrist.

    2. There will be no southern wall built. Illegal immigration will be brought under control via political arm-twisting and –gasp–actually enforcing the immigration laws already on the books. Mexico–and other recalcitrant countries–will get in line or suffer the (financial) consequences of a Trump presidency.

    3. Speaking of recalcitrant countries, those who want “normalized” relations with the USA (VietNam, Cuba, et al) will start playing ball. They’ll stop the mass exodus of their citizens while they accept their deported nationals back ASAP…”or else.”

    4. Islamic terrorism will continue to rear its ugly head…though now properly identified it can be dealt with politically and financially. Those who don’t vehemently oppose it will suffer… politically and financially.

    5. There will be more “Exits” as globalization takes a hit in favor of a new style of politics. It’s just the pendulum swinging to the right so don’t expect long-lasting results.

    6. A Trump presidency will lead the way in stopping unbridled migration from Central/South America, the Middle East and Africa by holding other countries accountable AND creating safe havens outside of the US and Europe…funded by the US and Europe.

    You see, it’s all business with Trump. Nothing personal, but if you don’t play ball, you’ll suffer the consequences.

  10. As an addendum to #4, the USA will unfortunately suffer some heartbreaking terrorist attacks by “lone wolf” IS-inspired operatives and recently converted Muslims.

  11. Sander van der Wal

    January 2, 2017 at 1:46 pm

    Just predictions about Europe, too clueless about the States

    1) Merkel’s CDU will loose the Bundestag elections in 2017. This is what everybody expects so no points. AfD will be the big winner. As a result, the CSU (the CDU of Bayern) will drop out of the CDU/CSU alliance, and ally with AfD forming the Bundes-government.

    2) Geert Wilders will win the Dutch election in March 2017. This is what everybody expects so no points for this predection either. He will however be able to form a government with a bunch of other parties, but as Wilders is no Trump, that government will fall before year’s end.

    3) ISIS won’t be defeated before the end of 2017. Turkey will make their move on the Kurds too early, which will result in the Kurds withdrawing from the sieges of Mosul and Raqqa. US’ involvement will be too late.

  12. A group along the lines of the “gang of eight” will emerge in the Republican legislature, led by RINO stalwarts McCain and Graham, with the expressed purpose to stymie, or at least significantly water down, Trump’s initiatives. The result will be that Pelosi and Schumer will be the de facto legislative leaders.

    The leader of a majority-Muslim nation will attempt to initiate a reformation of the jihadist interpretation of Islam and will be assassinated for his efforts.

    Kim Jong Un will die in a Chinese-orchestrated coup clumsily designed to appear as a natural death and be replaced with a leader more easily managed by the Chinese government.

    Japan will scuttle its long-standing “no military” policy and begin to evolve its self-defense force into a full blown military to counter the looming threat from China. A mandatory draft and the development of nuclear weapons will be openly debated in the legislature.

    Obama will appear regularly as an honored guest on television news and late shows. He will eschew radio, as he needs to be seen as well as heard. There will be no fading away with this man. Sorry, I realize this is a completely obvious prediction.

  13. A few idle predictions for international events.
    1. In his first year Trump will announce an official visit to China for his second year.
    2. A Central European state (eg. Hungary or Czech Republic) will hold a Brexit type vote.
    3. Putin will begin a campaign to reduce Iran’s influence in Iraq.
    4. Israel’s military will stop ISIS from gaining territory in the south of Jordan and the neighboring part of Saudi Arabia.

  14. To: Ye Old Scribe,

    Russia was consecrated by Pope John Paul II on March 25, 1984.

  15. Wait …

    I change my predictions to just this site one: I predict with absolute certainty that I will not win this contest.

  16. 1) On day 1 Trump will void most of Obama’s executive orders

    2) the Price bill will pass easily and Trump will sign it. This will remove all Obamacare provisions except the additions to medicaid. It will free insurers to compete, reduce tort incentives, and provide some federal funding for a national high risk pool.

    3) Obama will continue to be a pain in the media – but every time he speaks the media will lose credibility by supporting him. Remember Obama and Clinton said the same things to get elected, but the people believed what he said while ignoring what he did, but believed what clinton did and ignored what she said. As TDS guts media believability the public’s willingness to prefer Obama’s words over his actions will also erode. Palin, Christie, and Rudy will constitute Trump’s political shock troops – and the GOP will sweep the 2018 elections.

    4 – Iran will have a nuclear accident resulting in a revolution. The new government will turn Iran into a long term American ally. The combined power of the U.S., Russia, Iran, and the UK will bring a form of peace to the middle east.

    5 – the house of saud will fall – with thousands of dead.

    6 – the wall will sort of get built – political compromise on immigraion will see some mass deportations; some amnesties; and some path-to-legal. In the NAFTA renegotiation Canada will give up on softwood and western agricultural products, but retain the CBC and the quebec/ontario marketing boards. Mexico will agree to build a virtual wall consisting of a strong military and police barrier to illegals crossing from their territory.

  17. “Site” was added by Galaxy.

  18. Michael Randolph

    January 2, 2017 at 9:44 pm

    1. The Donald leaves office (e.g. death, resignation, removal)
    2. A judge from Donald Trump’s list gets appointed to the Supreme Court
    3. Hillary does not get indicted
    4. Pope Francis officially permits inter-communion with non-Catholics (in all or certain cases)
    5. Pope Francis makes clerical celibacy optional (in all or certain cases)
    6. Cardinals issue public correction of Pope Francis’ teaching, which Pope Francis ignores
    7. One or more member countries vote to exit the EU
    8. Dow drops to 15,000 at some point

  19. 1. Google buys Twitter (I bet $20/share)
    2. Ted Cruz is appointed to the Supreme Court
    3. Stephen Colbert gets cancelled
    4. Tax reform is the first major legislation passed under Trump administration. Legislation containing a repatriation holiday is one of the key points.
    5. McRib becomes permanent part of McDonalds menu

  20. 1. Elizabeth will not be Queen at the end of the year.
    2. DJIA will be higher at the end of the year than the beginning.
    3. The next Supreme Court Justice will not come from Trump’s pre-election list.
    4. The dollar price of a barrel of oil will be higher at the end of the year than at the beginning.
    5. A major celebrity (Hollywood or popular music industry) under the age of 30 will depart this life as result of self-inflicted actions.

  21. Mark Shea’s personal blog and Facebook page will complete its spiral into almost nothing but ‘All Trump/Republican hate, all the time’. There will be occasional interrupts with prayer requests or links to a place to donate to a charity, but even these will be polluted with snide comments on how any Republicans should have to give all their money first because they hate the government ever helping the poor or some such. He will also finish banning anyone who doesn’t respond to absolutely every single thing Pope Francis does or says, regardless of how minor, with frantic screams of ‘amen!’ and fist pumping.

    There will be no war with Russia.

    At least one more nation will leave the EU. My money is on either Italy or France.

    There will be, at minimum, another major explosive attack against an airport in Europe by Islamic terrorists bringing in suitcases loaded with mid or high yield improvised explosives, as the realization finally sinks in that it’s easier to blow up 100 people in a waiting area than to kill 100 people on a flying plane and the ‘terrorist capital’ gained is about the same.

    A lot of Trump fans will get angry as the wall is never built and economic conditions do not substantially improve over the year.

    The Kansas City Chiefs will have an embarrassingly bad season.

    Betty White will pass away.

  22. Item I forgot to add, but no points since it is obvious:

    Another brand new ‘Real Jesus! (TM)’ will be promoted by some hack leftist and get lots of screen time as ‘revolutionary’ by the media, just in time for Easter.

  23. This comment is Not Spam! Please, spam filter, let me through.

    POLITICS / GEOPOLITICS
    1) Construction is started on “The Wall”
    2) Mosul is liberated in 2017. IS-controlled territory continues to shrink.

    FAMOUS DEATHS
    4) James “Jimmy” Carter
    5) Queen Elizabeth II

    ECONOMICS
    6) S&P 500 ends the year above 2400. This assumes Trump actually slashes corporate income taxes.
    7) Oil Prices stubbornly refuse to rise above $70 / barrel all year (WTI crude: http://oil-price.net/)

    SPORTS
    8) Super Bowl: Steelers
    9) World Series: Indians

  24. I must confess to being hopeless at making predictions, but here are mine anyway.

    1) In the UK: the Supreme Court, in spite of one of its judges being a noted warmist, will rule that the government may invoke Article 50 to initiate Brexit without a vote in parliament.

    2) One way or another, Brexit negotiations will be concluded by the end of the year, resulting in some sort of messy transitional agreement, but giving the UK the freedom to pursue free trade as if it were a fully independent country. Remainers will claim it as a victory for common sense. Leavers will not…

    3a) In the UK: Jeremy Corbyn will remain leader of the Labour Party, no matter how low his rating falls, and no matter who challenges him for the leadership.

    3b) No prominent Labour people will form a breakaway party.

    4) In the Netherlands: Wilders’ party will win the most votes in the general election, but it will not have an absolute majority, and a coalition of other parties will form the government.

    5) In France: Le Pen will not become the president.

    6a) Kraftwerk will, in the first half of the year, release their first album of new music since 2003. [OK, this is not of Earth-shattering importance, but I have a great deal of confidence in this, in spite of my having no inside knowledge on the matter].

    6b) Unfortunately, the album will include a song related to “climate change”.

    7) Trump has already said it won’t be a complete wall, so that’s not hard to predict.

    8) A number of US scientists who have not previously spoken publicly on the matter will come out as “climate change” sceptics.

  25. My greater than zero chance predictions for 2017:

    1. Yale will release Boolaboolean algebra based on the truth values of true, false, and fake but accurate.

    2. It will be shown undetectable alt-matter circling Earth is masking undetectable global warming.

    3. Physicists will debate whether the itty-bitty strings of string theory should be measured in teeny-weenies or neeny-nanos.

    4. A fifth dimension of bendiness will be added to space-time, henceforth E=mC3.

    5. Canada will pass a law that every statement must begin with the phrase, “May I say…”

    6. The number six will be copyrighted by Google so I can’t predict anything here.

    7. After an exhaustive government study it will be found there is only one way to skin a cat.

    8. The Detroit Tigers will win the World Series.

    Hey, a guy can dream, right?

  26. 1) Trump will have gender reassignment surgery and become the first US female president.
    2) None of my predictions will happen.
    3) Oh wait…

  27. 1) Congress will pass and Trump will sign a law imposing a tax on “Remittances” between the US and Mexico. It will be, however, a very small token tax, insufficient to cover any project costs associated with border security.

    2) The “Tax the Blue Zones” proposal to motivate citizens in coastal, low lying, areas to move away from potential danger from sea level rise will be introduced, will NOT pass, but will expose certain coastal representatives to Congress as double-talkers on the issue of sea-level rise.

    3) The sliding roof of the “Dallas” Cowboy’s stadium in Irving will malfunction at least once in the season.

    4) Vote fraud in Detroit, as exposed by Jill Stein, will not be addressed by legislative proposals in either Michigan or the US Congress. (The municipal government will tell us all such discrepancies are NOT fraud, after all.)

    5) Mark Steyn will release Vol II of his multi-year, multi-volume opus “Disgrace to the Profession”.

    6) A “near Earth object” that might have, had it struck, done more damage than a nuclear attack will pass by the planet only to be detected on the departure, not the approach.

    7) There will be no resolution to the physics questions regarding (a) the EM reactionless drive,(b) the “cold fusion” (Rossi, LENR, e-cat) reactor, or (c)the detection of “dark” matter or energy. There will be new evidence, but nothing conclusive either way.

    8) A flaw in the math and computer models used to “detect” exo-solar planets will be exposed with the result some “discoveries” of some “planets” will wind up being retracted.

    9) The academic freedom of professors in universities will be challenged with FOIA requests, now filed by SJWs, attempting to “show” that some professors are neo-nazis (or something)

  28. “7) There will be no resolution to the physics questions regarding (a) the EM reactionless drive,(b) the “cold fusion” (Rossi, LENR, e-cat) reactor, or (c)the detection of “dark” matter or energy. There will be new evidence, but nothing conclusive either way.”

    Let me add a further prediction to my existing ones:

    9) Someone will invent a cold fusion powered EmDrive. It will be explained that the EmDrive’s missing momentum is provided by the cold fusion reactor’s missing neutrons. This will make perfect sense to 99% of the world’s journalists, who will mock those of us who still think something is missing…

  29. 10) USA: There will be a fraud investigation into climate science. Unfortunately, it will be restricted in scope to the question of data adjustments. It will conclude that although a small percentage of adjustments is scientifically problematic there is no evidence of fraud.

  30. FIRST!

    Regarding Pouncer’s Prediction # 6 made approx 6 Jan 2017 at 6:54 p.m.

    See http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/solar-system/a24672/an-asteroid-just-missed-earth/

    “An asteroid between 16 and 34 meters in diameter (36 and 112 feet) flew by the Earth this morning, about twice as close to our home planet as the moon. The asteroid, named 2017 AG13, was only discovered on Saturday, January 7, by the Catalina Sky Survey, according to space and weather publication The Watchers. It made it’s closest approach at about 7:50 a.m. EST, according to JPL data.”

    Either pouncer has better observational data than JPL, — and saw the NEO on the way in — or this was a near-certain prediction for ANY year.

  31. 1. Despite the Clintons having loads more time to spend on their hands, donations to their Foundation go down in 2017.

    2. Federal ban on internet gambling is mostly lifted.

    3. Paul Krugman leaves the NYT, one way or another.

    4. A Trump SCOTUS nominee gets confirmed with more Democrat votes than Republican.

    5. Despite “permanent” ban, Milo gets back on Twitter.

  32. I’m a little late, but here it is:

    1. Hillary is (or about to be) indicted and Trump pardons her.

  33. Nailing it down, Jan 25th of the year in our domain of discourse.

    http://www.space.com/35446-small-asteroid-rerun-2017-bx-buzzes-earth.html

    This is going to keep happening. Sooner or later a rock is going to hit.

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