The Great Day—the Day yearned for by all humanity, or at least weakly anticipated by you, Dear Reader—has arrived! Let the trumpet sound and celebration begin! The release of Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics is official!
The cover above is not the approved version, but one graciously and unexpectedly provided by the one and only Wrath of Gnon. Has more soul than the Springer yellow.
You’ll want to buy a copy for yourself, of course. But in doing so don’t neglect thinking of copies for your loved ones, too. There is no better way to demonstrate filial piety than buying your mother her very own copy. And if that sainted woman is no longer with us, then buying the neighbor’s mother a copy works just as well.
Act now. Supplies are unlimited.
The Big Gist
- All probability is conditional;
- Probability is not decision.
From those simple and proved truths flows these consequences:
- Probability cannot discern cause;
- Therefore no hypothesis test, by wee p-value or Bayes factor, should ever be used;
- Therefore parameters are of no interest to man or beast;
- Therefore verified probability models should be used in a predictive sense only;
- Therefore to understand cause and provide explanation we must look to nature, essence, and power.
Therefore buy the book and be the first on your block to come to a wondrous, penetrating understanding of probability & statistics. Out with the new and in with the old! The older, better, and true understanding of cause and probability, that is. Eschew mathematics for the sake of mathematics, flee ad hocery in all its forms and wiles, and put probability to its intended real use!
This includes you, too, computer scientists, with your big deep data neural net machine “learning” fuzzy algorithms which are all probability models by (admittedly) cuter and more precious names.
Buy the book. Only $64.82, an exceptional bargain.
I see, too, some sellers list used copies, which are, of course, an impossibility. For two reasons. One, the book is only out today. Two, once in possession of this mighty work, none would let it go. Caveat emptor.