Have to admit, I wasn't allowing myself to think this could really happen: https://t.co/17X00HGt6u Too much room for wishful thinking. …
— Outsideness (@Outsideness) June 24, 2016
Last day of class. Your regular broadcast resumes tomorrow.
Wales and England, except in the metropolitan areas (surprise), said Leave and Scotland and Northern Ireland said Remain. With the escape from Brussels and its bureaucracy intent on regulating banana curviness, among other things, Prime Minister Cameron will fall on his sword, though he won’t plunge it straight into his innards, preferring a death of a thousand cuts.
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) June 24, 2016
Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage come out shiny. Many celebrities are shocked—and you know how hard that is to do.
Now the same people who loved to recall the horrors of colonialism and the wonderful freedoms won by formerly remotely ruled countries were—more shock—the same people who insisted on Remain. And the same people who would argue against France bolting their masters, and the same people who would spill blood to keep Texas from its independence.
Remember why bookies were inflating Remain odds https://t.co/RcqINhPmOl
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 24, 2016
Although Brexit is already ancient history, it’s well to recall bookies had the odds in favor of Remain. Curious, no? From Zero Hedge:
Two days ago we pointed out something surprising: according to Ladbrokes’ head of political betting, Matthew Shaddick, the key catalyst that moved bookie odds on Monday morning, the first day after the suspended campaign in the aftermath of Jo Cox murder was resumed, “we took a £25,000 bet on Remain this morning which helped move the odds in their direction.” This in turn unleashed a global asset surge, as markets rebounded on expectations the Leave campaign was losing momentum, even as actual polls – still neck and neck – did not validate such an observation…
In other words, a few large bettors are skewing the bookie odds dramatically in the favor of Remain, even as the mass of bettors is betting on Leave, albeit with smaller cash amounts. Another way of putting it: a substantially outsized influence by a wealthy minority over the poor majority, just like in every other aspect of life.
No, come on. Conspiracies only happen in movies. Global elites wouldn’t play such games. Right? As the story linked in the next tweet says, “betting markets gave ‘Remain’ a 96 percent chance to win the election”. Huh.
Here we go again. Yet another failure in the world of election forecasting. https://t.co/KfYsbk5rE3
— NYT Business (@nytimesbusiness) June 24, 2016
Besides the bookie boondoggle, political experts everywhere should be (but won’t) wake up blushing. Don’t forget that when a political elite says, “I think X will happen” there are three things happening. (1) He wants X and is hoping his support changes minds; call this an influential forecast. (2) He is wishcasting, which is the true act of ignoring evidence that does not favor X. (3) He actually believes X, which actually happens.
All three were in force in Brexit punditry, but no force was greater than wishcasting. Elites surely thought themselves more powerful than they were, hence the influence. But elites in particular these days don’t see what they don’t want to.
— RT (@RT_com) June 24, 2016
Headline from RT interesting at least for the observation that there is not a similar headline from Trump’s scrupulously honest opponent. Doubtless that headline will come. But you know how it is in politics: Hillary is now forced to react and not comment.
Brexit will cause global warming! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA! https://t.co/9iLGcctj7f
— William M. Briggs (@mattstat) June 24, 2016
The weeping and gnashing of teeth.
You really think #Brexit will happen just because people voted for it? People voted for traditional marriage in California, how'd that go?
— Pax Dickinson ? (@paxdickinson) June 24, 2016
And then there’s the route to separation, which isn’t automatic. Even Johnson is calling for a gradual release. So it’s natural enough for some to suspect a real exit won’t be allowed. Yet the Californians didn’t get their way because they were overruled by the Central Authority, a government to which the majority of Californians committed themselves. In Brexit it was the Central Authority that was rejected. So while nobody knows the exact form of freedom, I think it’ll stick as such.
Hitler finds out about Britain leaving the EUhttps://t.co/fyELUhMUFQ
— Stephen Herreid (@StephenHerreid) June 24, 2016