William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

Predictions For 2016—Register Yours Today!

It’s that time of year again. Time to put your reputation on the line and show us your pudding, if that is the metaphor I want. Even if it isn’t, we’re stuck with it.

Same rules as always, except that everybody must make two predictions:

(1) Who wins the Republican nomination?

(2) Who wins the Presidency?

Here are my guesses:

(1) Trump

(2) Trump.

I’m not asking who you’d prefer, but who you think will win.

Of course, it isn’t only politics which interests us. Anything is fair game, but whatever you predict it has to be verifiable in a public source we can all see. You have until next week, so come back whenever you like. All entries dated before January 8th will count.

I’ll come back over the week and enter mine here. Here are some guides. War with Russia? ISIS attack in the States or Europe? China and Japan come to blows? Stock market crash? SJW apocalypse? Federal laws requiring everybody gets to decide their own “gender”? Civil war? The end of global warming panic? The return of beauty to art? Pope Francis announces there is no mercy without sin? The neo-reaction/dark enlightenment becomes the formal replacement for conservatism, which finally admits its unification with liberal-libertarianism?

Please number your predictions!

2015 Report

ransom113

The WordPress site report is out for 2015. Since I was hacked in the earlier part of the year, I missed counting about a month because I switched servers and the old stats didn’t port over to the new one, so the 940,000 visits is low by about a month. Rough estimate for the full year is somewhere over 1,000,000 visits. Congratulations to us all!

62 Comments

  1. My prediction for 2016 is that there will be more temperatures than average.

  2. (1) Who wins the Republican nomination?

    Trump

    (2) Who wins the Presidency?

    Trump

    (3) Will Pope Francis still be Pope?

    No

  3. Rubio and Hillary. My follow up is that no candidate will receive more than 40% of the popular vote.

    NY or LA will have a major attack, most likely on a core resource (e.g. reservoir or transmission grid).

    The NFL will lose its 7th consecutive court decision, but Goodell will not get fired, because rich folks love dictators. (Corollary: people watch the trash NFL in spite of overpriced everything for the same reason people live in NYC; I think this is an extension of the ‘better to be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom’. People just love group misery because all the cool kids love it too).

    China will make a military move in the SCS; actual shots fired.

    Clemson will win the NCAA championship, and ESPN will claim it’s really an SEC win (oops, too late http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14478363/alabama-crimson-tide-vs-clemson-tigers-college-football-playoff-title-glorified-sec-title-game)

    Tim Cook will leave Apple after a 2nd straight bust release (stylus!?!?). I’m guessing he releases an iMouse, or perhaps an iPowerSupply, or maybe even an iCRT screen.

    Barack Obama will retire the wealthiest president after spending the year investing in options for companies then “leaking” plans to regulate (i.e. Buy firearm stock then *wink wink* “enable tough gun control via executive action, but never actually doing anything but rake in the dough)

    And now for the crazy ones:

    An Ivy will dump the PC nonsense, to the celebration of all, and then will get kicked out of the Ivy League.

    The rebound freeze from the North Pole melting this past week will push ice to near record highs, but no one will notice.

    WB will announce it’s creating Chuck vs something (Netflix or a movie).

    BLM will be involved in a firefight in a police station. But our civil war won’t start for a few more years.

    Puerto Rico will be made a state.

    And lastly, Briggs or Gavin will switch sides!

  4. (1) Ted Cruz
    (2) Hillary Clinton

    Frankly I have no idea. Happy New Year :).

    More predictions:

    (3) 2015 will have been the warmest year on record and irrefutable proof that every critic of AGW is a paid shill by ExxonMobil.

    (4) Russia will keep its miserable economic track record and will keep pretending its winning something other than Phyrric military victories. I guess it’s a Russian tradition.

    (5) Civil War by Marvel will be a better super hero vs super hero movie than batman vs superman.

    (6) Major terrorist attack in Germany, some will blame Merkel for her immigration policies, as intended by the terrorists themselves.

    (7) Daesh or whatever will be finished by year’s end.

    (8) Paedophilia will be pushed as a sexual desire as any other and any critic of pedophiles will be unsympathetic monsters. They will do this by pushing the distinction between pedophiles and child molesters.

  5. 1. Ted Cruz/Carly Fiorina will defeat Hillary Clinton/Julian Castro.

  6. (1) Who wins the Republican nomination?

    Trump

    (2) Who wins the Presidency?

    Trump

    (3) What will be the impact of a Trump presidency, if any? This is really the question on my mind as my prognostications are based in part on hope that we can rid Washington of at least a portion of the graft and corruption attached to the special interests that own nearly every politician and I am pinning my hope on the independence of Trump’s presidency. Yet because I have only known the present, corrupt system, I can only begin to speculate what wonderful things may happen if we can finally rid ourselves of its influence.

  7. Wilbur Hassenfus

    January 1, 2016 at 9:58 am

    1) I can’t predict the details, but by the end of the year, smart Trump fans will wish he’d dropped out by March. It’s the Trumpening in Samarra: You can’t cheat fate.

    2) The SJW insanity will spin much further out of control with no meaningful resistance in sight. When enough close friends and family of Cathedral potentates are ruined, then they’ll rein it in. It’ll approach the scale of the Cultural Revolution before that happens. We’re in for two or three more years of spiraling madness at the very least, before they dial it back to a permanent lower level of repression — which would still have been unimaginable 20 years ago.

  8. (1) Cruz

    (2) Trump

    (3) Salon will have an article saying that pedophilia is OK because if children can pick their gender, then they can consent.

    (4) Russia will expand their presence in the middle east; NATO will lose credibility.

    (5) An increase in violence against refugees/immigrants in Europe. Nationalist parties will expand noticeably.

    (6) The Oscars will go to the most anti-reality movies. Spotlight will also win some, as leftist outlets try to decide if they think touching children is good or bad in that instance.

    (7) A third political party will be formed (see 2)

  9. Wait, what? You get a million visits per year yet comments on any random (heh) post number are about two dozen. Something doesn’t sound right. Even on the busiest day that’s one comment per thousand visits. And lots of comments are not unique. How many unique visits per day are there? I’m thinking bot visits are boosting the count. We need to increase your human readership. That’s where the arguing and learning comes from.

  10. 1) Not Trump.
    2) The Republican (Not sure who it will be other than I am sure it won’t be Trump)
    3) The world will not end in 2016

  11. James,

    The second half of your #4 prediction is impossible. NATO can’t loose what it doesn’t have.

  12. “This is really the question on my mind as my prognostications are based in part on hope that we can rid Washington of at least a portion of the graft and corruption attached to the special interests that own nearly every politician”

    You hope in vain. Trump is a one man special interest. The only thing a Trump presidency will change about graft and corruption is which side of the graft and corruption Trump is on.

  13. 1) Rubio

    2) Clinton

    JMJ

  14. (1) Who wins the Republican nomination? Romney — the Republican Establishment will not allow Trump to trump

    (2) Who wins the Presidency? Clinton — the Establishment’s establishment candidate, so to speak

    (3) Ryan will prove that elections do not matter as he guides the Republicans ever closer to (what is errantly termed) the Obama/liberal agenda

    (4) The US security state will foment open revolution in Belarus and Turkey (it already secretly — sort of — foments revolution in all former Soviet republics (sic) and any other country exercising semblance of independence)

    (5) Obama will set a new record for executive orders, none of which will be rescinded in 2017 should my prediction 2 turn out false and a Republican elected president

    (6) US security state will create and arm a new (even worse) franken-monster to battle ISIS

    (7) Either Saudi Arabia or Jordan or both — two of the democracies the US supports in the Middle East (joke) — will implode

    (8) Extremist (that squiggly Orwellian modifier) violence will erupt in an African country. Before anyone responds, someone will reference a map of known oils reserves and all will be forgotten

    (9) US will target a South American country for daring to have a government that provides social security, welfare, and tax-funded education and healthcare — “‘Cause we can’t allow their socialism to challenge our socialism.”

    (10) On college campuses, the Sanders-inspired Pandora’s box, so to speak, will be opened ever-wider, with Trotsky the new Che and t-shirts of Marx and Engels the rage

  15. Trump

    Trump

    Global warming is finally revealed as the scam it is.

    Isis/isil/daesh will continue causing worldwide grief

    More attacks carried out in a neighborhood near you by the above grief-causes.

    Why all the pedophile comments? That’s worrisome…

  16. My predictions have been terrible. Trend broken this year?

    POLITICS
    (1) Who wins the Republican nomination? Trump
    (2) Who wins the Presidency? Clinton
    POP CULTURE
    (3) Famous Deaths: Zsa Zsa Gabor, Kirk Douglas
    (4) Bruce (Caitlyn) Jenner writes a tell-all memoir.
    ECONOMICS
    (5) Oil Prices remain low, at some point in the year reaching $30 / barrel, ending the year below $60 / barrel.
    (6) S&P 500 ends the year above 2100. Correction at some point in 2017 (for next year’s predictions).
    SPORTS
    (7) Super Bowl: Patriots vs. Panthers. Panthers win.
    (8) World Series: Cubs vs Royals. Cubs win.

  17. 1. Cruz (I think Trump will derail himself.)

    2. Cruz over Sanders (I think hrc will be indicted or close enough to whomever is indicted over the email scandal as to be permanently tarnished in the eyes of the independent voters…finally.)

    3. black li(v)es matter will significantly disrupt at least one day of the dem convention.

    4. Obama will admit he has evolved on his belief in a God, as in: there isn’t one.

    5. Polygamists will win significant legal victories in the U.S.

    6. A significant Muslim extremist terrorist attack will occur in Jordan.

  18. 1) Trump
    2) Trump
    3) Hilary pardoned before trial.

  19. Dear r. Briggs:

    I concur;
    1. Trump
    2. Trump
    3. An ‘agreement’ between the Vatican and the German Lutherans establishing quasi-Catholic status (very much like the Vatican-Anglican Use ruling from a few years ago) for Protestors who no longer protesteth too loudly.
    4. Large scale conflict amongst and between India, Pakistan/Bangladesh and China
    4. The emergence of the Armenian Liberation Front, covertly funded and armed by Russia, to pay Turkey back (and take back land) for the Armenian Genocide of 1915, thus solidifying the Russian claim to the leadership of Orthodoxy.
    5. The further covert arming and funding by Russia of the PKK Kurds as they begin to dismember Turkey as Russia steps up the Tournament of Shadows (aka The Great Game, as the Anglish Idiots call it)
    6. A breakdown of relations (if any really existed) between the Vatican and the Orthodox, who will accuse Catholics of making peace with liberalism.
    7. Serious Russian boots on the ground in Syria
    8. Israel continues to edge away from Washington and towards Moscow.
    9. The West will continue to confuse ‘Peace on Earth, Goodwill towards Men’ with ‘Peace on Earth towards Men of Goodwill’, as it continues to deny the schizoid core of Islam, wherein every interpretation of Mohammed is valid.

    Pax,
    John

  20. Sander van der Wal

    January 1, 2016 at 3:49 pm

    1) not Trump, but that is not a proper prediction.
    2) Clinton

    3) War with Russia? No

    4) ISIS attack in the States or Europe? Yes, again in France. In France, resentment against Muslims is much older than in other parts of Europe.

    5) China and Japan come to blows? No.

    6) Stock market crash? No, just a correction.

    7). SJW apocalypse? If this means Social Justice Warrior, then no.

    8)Federal laws requiring everybody gets to decide their own “gender”? nope.

    9) Civil war? In the US of A? Not there, no

    10) The end of global warming panic? Why leave money on the table. Of course not.

    10) The return of beauty to art? Nope

    11) Pope Francis announces there is no mercy without sin? Nope.

    12) The neo-reaction/dark enlightenment becomes the formal replacement for conservatism, which finally admits its unification with liberal-libertarianism? Neo-reaction?

  21. 1 – Republican candidate: A man or a woman but not a both or an either.
    2 – President: A man or a woman but not a both or an either.
    3 – UN Security vote about Kurdistan will be vetoed by Russia.
    4 – Increased tension in the south China seas.
    5 – ISIS attacks Israel.
    6 – A church in western Europe is bombed on Easter.
    7 – First electric car with replaceable electrolyte on the market.

  22. These are predictions, what I expect, not what I wish for:
    1) Trump
    2) H. Clinton
    (Note: the old adage holds: “The people get the government they deserve.”
    3) St. John’s College (Annapolis) beats Navy in their annual croquet game
    4) Obama is impeached (not convicted)–> riots in all cities with population over 300,000
    5) Iran nukes Israel
    6) Israel nukes Iran
    7) Everyone is nuked
    8)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFkryh6hC-k

  23. PS–according to my predictions, I won’t be around to collect a prize in 2017.

  24. 1) Cruz
    2) Cruz
    3) Two new energy sources will become viable (Brillouin, Rossi’s
    E-cat) and will be attacked by the Green Radicals to prevent loss of their income from CAGW scam.

  25. Q1. Donald Trump

    Q2. Donald Trump

    Other predictions: H. Clinton will lose out to Bernie Sanders because far too many Democrats simply can’t stand the sight of her (and I don’t blame them).

    The Iraqi Army will finally retake Mosul and destroy I.S.I.S. in Iraq, but they will still be a plague in Syria, primarily because of the disunited opposition, the lack of international support for President Assad, and the obvious lack of trust between the Turkish government and the Kurds. Al-Baghdadi will be killed in an air strike.

    Greece will finally leave the E.U., because their continued membership of it will be seen by even the most stubborn of Europhiles (ex. Merkel) as being untenable.

    The cities of India, China and South-East Asia will continue to be choked by smog, and yet international bodies like the I.P.C.C. will continue downplay those nation’s contribution to the overall problem of atmospheric pollution because, after all, everything is the West’s fault. Third-World countries are never to blame for anything.

    An election is coming up in Australia, and our Prime Minister will either be Malcolm Turnbull, that Labour leader who is so charismatic that I cannot even recall his name at the moment (Mr. 15%), or (once again) Tony Abbott. Or Julie Bishop. Who knows? Not even the God I don’t believe in could figure this one out.

    There will be no ‘terrorist outrages’ this year. That’s right – none, zero. Sure, Americans will still blast away at each other due to their ridiculously lax gun laws, and the National Redneck’s Association will still harp on about how “it isn’t guns that kill people, but people that kill people”, but there won’t be another Paris or S11-style attack. This will make many think that there is a really, really big attack being planned, and – of course – the scaremongering media will do all they can to encourage this kind of paranoia.

    The mainstream media will tell us yet once again that “last year was the hottest on record (even though it wasn’t), and this year looks to be even hotter (even though it will not be)”. We will see evermore desperate attempts to scare the more gullible of people into accepting the global warming/climate change/the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it hypothesis due to ever-growing scepticism of this, utterly barmy, idea.

    Pope Francis will allow priests to marry, both women and each other. He will give his support to “gay marriage” (an oxymoron if ever there was one), stating that “the story of Sodom and Gomorrah was never mean’t to be taken seriously anyway, it being apocryphal”. The mainstream media will chatter non-stop for a month about these developments, whilst utterly ignoring the countless protests, around the world, against these moves. There will be calls for the reinistatement of Benedict XVI.

    Frederick Valentich will finally land his plane on King Island. People will ask him, “Where have you been these last 37 years?!”

  26. Um, I predict you’re gonna have a coronary or a stroke.

    Wow, ease off the caffeine, Mate!

  27. “3) 2015 will have been the warmest year on record and irrefutable proof that every critic of AGW is a paid shill by ExxonMobil.
    (4) Russia will keep its miserable economic track record and will keep pretending its winning something other than Phyrric military victories. I guess it’s a Russian tradition.” – Luis Dias

    Is this sarcasm? It’s often difficult for me to tell when someone is just joking.

  28. “Barack Obama will retire the wealthiest president after spending the year investing in options for companies then “leaking” plans to regulate (i.e. Buy firearm stock then *wink wink* “enable tough gun control via executive action, but never actually doing anything but rake in the dough)

    And now for the crazy ones:” – Wade M.

    And NOW for the crazy ones?

    Dan D., who exactly needs to lay off the coffee? Not me, that’s for sure.

  29. 1) Following 3 acrimonious ballots, brokered GOP convention turns to someone not currently running (but too many possibilities to surmise who right now)…. then suffers massive defeat to Hillary Clinton.
    2) Donald Trump sued for sexual harassment (at least once), settling out-of-court.
    3) At least 3 major mass shootings (8 or more deaths) in the U.S. between June 30th and Sept. 30th.
    4) More hurricanes and earthquakes in U.S. in 2016 than any previously-recorded year, and ocean temps continue rise to record levels (3 predictions for the price-of-one).
    5) Stock market (DJA) ends year at least 10% higher than it began (…before crashing in 2017, as Republicans stifle all needed financial reforms).
    6) Taylor Swift releases a CD that breaks all previous music sales records.
    7) Stony Brook University will NOT make the Final Four of the NCAA basketball championship.

  30. I predict a Clinton/Sanders ticket.

    Republicans see they have no chance and don’t even field a candidate.

    Bill Clinton begrudgingly accepts bothe the AG and DHS Secretary positions.

    A slew of RINOs take all of the other cabinet positions, relieved that they can finally “come out of the closet,” as it were.

    ISIS sees they have no chance against such a powerhouse combo and throw in the towel, converting en masse to atheists.

    Putin hooks up with Bruce/Caitlyn, begins cross dressing and changes his name to Loretta.

    All is well in the world.

  31. (1) Who wins the Republican nomination? Trump

    (2) Who wins the Presidency? Trump

    (3) There will be at least three terrorist attacks on US soil in 2016. All three will be committed by home grown terrorists.

    (4) Barack Obama will sign executive orders to limit the number of firearms sold and to whom they are sold.

    (5) Barack Obama will sign an executive order instituting a carbon tax in the guise of high penalties on utility companies. The Republican Congress will not understand what happened.

    (6) Guantanamo will finally be closed in 2016 with the remaining terrorists transported to a Federal Prison in California where they will be welcome.

  32. GOP nominee: Bush

    President elect: Sanders (our 3rd commie President)

    1. Hilly goes to jail! Gets Martha Stewart’s cell. It’s quite nice, all things considered.

    2. Obama selected by George Soros to be next UN Sec Gen.

    3. Low birth rate in Germany seen as a Big Problem. ISIS offers assistance. Germany accepts! Frauleins flee en masse. Mail order Brauts anyone?

    4. Pope comes out of the closet.

    5. EU goes bankrupt. US Fed Reserve Bank merges with the People’s Bank of China.

    6. US Senate contracts Lyme Disease and solons die en masse. No one notices for two weeks.

    7. Brain-damaged ex-football players plan big demonstration; but then they forget to go. Supportive college students bash in their own heads in solidarity.

    8. Sales rise despite sinking consumer confidence. Turns out consumers never had any confidence in the first place, but it doesn’t really matter.

    9. Virtual reality replaces actual reality. No one notices for two weeks.

  33. I would occasionally bid “Two No Trump” and get my partner in trouble not actually having the points to justify the bid.

  34. Special Bonus Prediction #10:

    Upon hearing the news of his election, Bernie strokes out and is reduced to a vegetable. The Presidency is assumed by his running mate and VP-elect, Lisa Jackson, militant lesbian communist and Obama’s one-time EPA czarina.

  35. (1) Who wins the Republican nomination?
    Trump
    (2) Who wins the Presidency?
    Trump

  36. 1-a-Trumps might win the the nomination but not the presidency.
    1-b-most likely Ted Cruz will be the nominee. If he wins it means bye-bye the constitution.

    2-Hilary Clinton will win the election

    3-Briggs will still not understand that everyone has religious beliefs, even gays and not just Conservative Christian

    4-There will be more mass shooting done by white Christian man than by black and muslim combined.

  37. Wow. Talk about being angry!

  38. Gonzalo Varvique

    January 2, 2016 at 4:48 am

    1 & 2: Trump
    3: Putin proclaims himself Vladimir II, Tsar of All Russias
    4. The new Tsar conquers Constantinople
    5. The EU dissolves; Germany and its hinterland constitutes the New Holy Roman Germanic Empire
    6. The new Pope, Pius XIII, (Robert Cardinal Sarah) proclaims the crusade (Deus vult!)
    7. George Soros is hanged as a traitor in Times Square
    8. Jeb Bush applies for the Mexican citizenship. His application is refused

  39. 1) Trump
    2) Trump
    3) ISIS is beaten down but not dead yet
    4) Iran violates it’s nuclear treaty

  40. Something doesn’t sound right. Even on the busiest day that’s one comment per thousand visits.

    I visit daily, but comment infrequently, if at all, as I do with most sites. It sounds right to me.
    —————
    Americans will still blast away at each other due to their ridiculously lax gun laws

    “Americans” in general are not blasting away at each other – only the subset of barbarian city-dwellers (who obtain their guns on the black market). I notice that countries that don’t trust The People to possess firearms (America’s Second Amendment) also don’t trust The People to speak freely (America’s First Amendment) – rights that distinguish Citizens from Subjects.

  41. Hey, you’re giving Barbarians a bad name! The Church would be very small without them. Just ask Charlemagne and his gang. It’s the Sophisticuff’s who are the problem.

  42. (1)In Virginia Trump wins a plurality. I think Rubio wins nomination nationally.
    (2) Nationally I must hope Rubio wins. I am the Appomattox Co. Republican Unit Chairman so I must do my best to make sure every Republican candidate carries the day in November.
    3 War with Russia? no
    4 ISIS attack in the States or Europe? Both. And very serious. Not like San Bernardino: On the scale of the Russian Jet crash: in several cities.
    5 China and Japan come to blows? No, much too expensive.
    6 Stock market crash? No
    7 SJW apocalypse? Social Justice Warriors will join the ranks of the smelly-rank!
    8 Federal laws requiring everybody gets to decide their own “gender”? no way. Chromosomes are Back! XX = girl; XY = Boy.
    9 Civil war? No, rather Article 5 of US Constitution. Civil war in Sweden and perhaps Germany, but continuing in Libya, Syria, Turkey(?), Sudan. Most any place where more than a few Mohammedans live.
    10 The end of global warming panic? Never! The weather is always changing and so will the Believers! I advocate for 1400 PPM! Let’s make this planet GREEN!
    11 The return of beauty to art? Some books, some movies, some graphic art, some music but No: Art is dead. Overwhelmed by popular ignorance.
    12 Pope Francis announces there is no mercy without sin? Manifest Idiotic galore!
    13The neo-reaction/dark enlightenment becomes the formal replacement for conservatism, which finally admits its unification with liberal-libertarianism? Conservatives continue to win local elections, Liberals win National elections (I hope Not). Europe sinks to pogroms.
    14 OIL: WTI at $75

  43. 1) Rubio

    2) Clinton

    Really? Y’all think Trump is gonna get it?

  44. ““Americans” in general are not blasting away at each other – only the subset of barbarian city-dwellers (who obtain their guns on the black market). I notice that countries that don’t trust The People to possess firearms (America’s Second Amendment) also don’t trust The People to speak freely (America’s First Amendment) – rights that distinguish Citizens from Subjects.”

    1) The USA lack so much in the gun laws department that all gun or almost all gun are bought legally.

    2) Republican blocked a law that would make it impossible for someone on the no fly list to buy a gun, making it legal for suspected terrorists to buy guns in the USA.

    3) just as many Canadian, if not more, have gun to go hunting. The stricter law concerns ridiculous gun like semi-automatic and handguns. They are much harder to get and on the black market an AR15 can cost $30k to buy. It is also harder to buy bullets which are linked to your gun permit.

    4) Canada or most European countries have nothing to envy to the US concerning freedom of speech. Freedom of speech does not equal freedom of consequences

  45. I surmise that English is not Sylvain Allard’s mother tongue.

    The issues of free speech and an armed citizenry illustrate one of the fundamental differences between libertarians and progressives: Libertarians don’t trust The Government. Progressives don’t trust The People.

    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

  46. Bonus prediction: Sylvain and JMJ will not have their minds changed about anything.

  47. Geezer, no it’s not

    Nate, meaning that none of you will change their mind too. The reality is that you learn little when arguing with someone you agree with.

  48. “The issues of free speech and an armed citizenry illustrate one of the fundamental differences between libertarians and progressives: Libertarians don’t trust The Government. Progressives don’t trust The People.”

    The differences is not that at all. Progressivism believes in the power of the people and know that the government is inevitable. Anarchy is what you see across the middle east where no state is strong enough to reach and rule within its frontier. They fight to simply be be recognized as ruler of the land, but have difficulties collecting taxes and guarantying security to the population.

    A strong and mostly fair, still not perfect, government is what gave the chances to guaranty security, and permitted people to accumulate wealth. The mega rich of the 1800s did not use guns to acquire their riches they used the law and had the government use the gun when there were strikes. The US government in the late 1800s choose to protect the right to acquire properties over the right to life of the workers who were treated like slaves. Forced to work 12-15 hours a day 7 days a week, with salaries that barely provided food and shelter.

  49. More SJWism will happen. This is not a prediction as much as it is a warning. I’m sitting right in the middle if it in a B.ed programme. The next thing the teachers will push is removal of gender distinctions entirely. Non-hegemonic masculinity (read wussification) is the new big thing in such circles.

  50. Very strange. I’m watching “Forensic files” and a guy who had several guns to protect himself (plus dog and fences), yet he ended getting murdered by his own gun. So much for gun as protection.

  51. Sylvain,

    Very strange. I’m reading the past 10 years of the NYC police department’s “Annual Firearms Discharge Report” and I see that more city police die from their own weapons (suicide or accidental discharge) than are killed by criminals. So much for gun protection in the hands of agents of the state.

  52. Same rules as always, except that everybody must make two predictions:

    (1) Who wins the Republican nomination? Ted Cruz

    (2) Who wins the Presidency? Hillary Clinton

    (3) Hadrut4 will record its hottest year/12 month period.

    (4) The DPP candidate will win the Taiwan Presidential elections

    (5) Gold will be above $1100 per oz

    (6) There will be an ISIS inspired terrorist attack in the UK.

    (7) Raqqa will come under siege but remain in ISIS hands.

  53. Jim,

    That’s not so strange since gun aren’t really good ro protect one self

  54. Sylvain,

    Wow. You non-sequitored my non sequitor of your non sequitor.

  55. 1. Trump
    2. Trump
    3. SJW’s will nuke the Hugo Awards again after the Puppies again fill most of the nominees.
    4. Market will fall 30%.
    5. China will have zero growth.
    6. US into recession.
    7. Google buys Twitter.

  56. Jim,

    The premise of the gun nuts out there is that their guns protect them. Reality is that guns kills more often people from the household than the number of murder by gun. About 10000 murder while 20000 die of gun accidental gun shot and suicide. And in the 10000 there are also people who are murdured by their own weapons.

  57. Sylvain,

    The premise of the police out there is that their guns protect them. Reality is — as I previously noted — guns kill more often police than the number of murder by guns.

  58. Sylvain,

    Please note that you still have not made a cogent argument. Your non sequiturs are showing … and giving rise to mine. You are consistent, though.

  59. 1) Cruz
    2) Hilary Clinton (unfortunately; goodbye USA, it was nice knowing you while it lasted)

    3) Mean global temperatures in 2016 will be claimed in at least one survey to be slightly higher than in 2015, but by less than all but a few outlying computer models predict. Pundits will claim that this is definitive proof that global warming is occurring. The trend in global CO2 emissions will continue unaffected by the Paris conference.

    4) In the mainstream media, mention of a greenhouse effect caused by CO2 driving climate change will outnumber discussions of positive and negative feedback effects from interactions with the rest of the climate by at least 50:1. On the rare occasions when an expert mentions the words “feedback” or “tipping point”, the presenters or politicians won’t have a clue what they are talking about.

    5) There will be at least one major Islamic terrorist attack in either North America or Europe, to which almost all leading politicians and most of the media will respond “This has nothing to do with Islam. Islam is a religion of peace.”

    6) No politician or media commentator will feel the need to reassure us that “Buddhism is a religion of peace.”

    7) Worldwide, there will be on average (mean) at least 3 Islamic terrorist attacks per day, almost all of which will be ignored by the Western media.

    8) ISIS will largely hold its own in Syria and Iraq, gaining about the same amount of territory that it loses; but expand slightly in the rest of the world. Obama will continue to try to support the “moderate” opposition groups in Syria throughout the year, who will immediately pass on any equipment they receive to ISIS.

    9) There will be at least one major crisis between North and South Korea involving exchange of gunfire, artillery fire, naval fire, an incursion of special forces or something similar, but they will pull back from open war.

    10) The UK will vote to leave the EU by a small majority. The politicians will try not to honour the result in some way, perhaps by asking for more referendums until the “right” answer is achieved.

    11) There will a major global economic crisis (possibly next year rather than this one, but we must be due another one soon).

    12) There will continue to be an influx of “Syrian” refugees into Europe, with numbers of the same order of magnitude as in 2015.

    13) At least one European country will go bankrupt this year and forced to default on its debts or receive a massive loan from the EU or IMF. Public sector borrowing will continue to rise in at least 90% of advanced economies.

    14) A Christian will be arrested and brought to court, or fired from their job and lose their employment appeal, in either the UK, Canada or the US for commenting on either transgenderism, homosexuality or Islam.

    15) There will be a formal split in the world-wide Anglican communion.

  60. 16) The LHC won’t report discovering any signs of supersymmetry.

  61. More the 50% of the predictions already made will not happen.

    Politics — We will told that we have been presented with a “stark choice.”
    Some of us will not be able to tell the difference.

    There will be much discussion about what to do about:
    Isis (Deash), Putin, the Talliban, gun violence, immigration, school performance. Noting of substance will actually change.

    Sports — The teams that scores more points than they allow will win more games than those that don’t.

    Reality Television — Someone will profess their undying love to a man they barely know.

    Game of Thrones — Someone important will die.
    After a long wait we will finally find out that we are not getting a “The Winds of Winter.”

    Movies based on Comic books will sell lots of tickets.

    Comic books themselves will see declining circulation.

    We will be told that we are seeing “unprecedented” weather patterns. Climate change will be fingered.

  62. 1. There is a 50% probability quantum physicists will declare God is both dead and alive.

    2. There is a 65% probability there will be no more odd numbers since the term “odd” is too judgmental. The new more inclusive terms will be: even, steven.

    3. There is a 75% probability “near infinite” will finally be defined as Infinity minus two.

    4. There is a 65% probability the meek shall inherit the earth, which is 215 trillion dollars in debt.

    5. There is an astronomically greater than 100% probability Manmade Global Warming will be overhyped.

    6. There is a 45% probability (like addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division) statisticians will formalize the functions of adjusting, tweaking, and fudging.

    Required predictions:

    7. There is a 75% probability the Republicans will nominate Noah Chance.

    8. There is an 85% probability the next President will be Hope Less.

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