William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

How’d We Do On Our 2015 Predictions?

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The answer to the post title’s question is: I’m not so sure. Because why? Because the predictions everybody registered were lost when I was hacked last January.

Why was I hacked? Because I, Christopher Monckton, Willie Soon, David Legates and myself wrote a peer-reviewed paper, paid for out of our own pockets, which suggested the sensitivity of the atmosphere to small increases in carbon dioxide was smaller than thought. Non-scientists, upset at the idea that we were not doomed, ranted and raged. One group hacked me, another tried to get Legates and Soon fired, and in general the bugwits created such a stink that a Congressional investigation—nay, two—were launched.

Anyway, after the hacking, because I kept pretty good but not perfect backups (they are now perfect), I managed to save the post asking for predictions, but I lost all the comments. I asked for everybody to re-enter their predictions, but a month had gone by and we were all global warming crazy by then, so only a few entrants remained. Somebody posted a link to a cached version of the site, but by the time I got to it, the link was dead.

Here’s what’s left of the serious predictions. See the end for the winner. And come back tomorrow and all of next week to enter your predictions for next year.

Spruance

My only prediction for 2015 is, that more than 50% of all predictions will be dead wrong.

Jim Fedako

2. The cold winter of 14-15 will be considered further proof that the earth has been irrevocably warmed by man
4. Those in control of the US government will get tired of poking Russia looking for a fight, so will start poking China
5. The US Supreme Court will side with Romneycare (er, Obamacare)
6. The younger generation will revolt against NSA spying since they will realize they never actually friended NSA

#2 is on the money, but it took little skill. Last year’s cold was proof positive of global warming, just as this year’s warmth is also proof positive, just as next year’s average will also be proof positive.

#4 is wrong. Even the Republicans, except for Trump, are anxious to start a war.

#5 was right. Dammit.

#6 is wrong. Ask somebody under 30 for a definition of NSA for proof.

Yawrate

1) Treaty will be signed.

2) Congress will not ratify, but EPA (through executive order) will take action

3) Israel bombs Iran.

4) SCOTUS finds for the plaintiff regarding the ACA.

#1 was in reference to a global warming treaty I asked about. It didn’t happen, per se. Though COP21 gave us “binding” non-binding targets.

#2 hasn’t happened yet. But wait for EPA to do something.

#3. Nope.

#4; the less said the better.

Scotian

3) Stephen Harper will be re-elected as prime minister of Canada.

4) McDonald’s opens first fully automated food preparation restaurant. Millions love it but the left is incensed. They stage faint-ins (coaches optional) but few show up.

5) The educational bubble will burst with massive defaults on current student loans and the flight of lenders from the market.

8) There will be a global currency crisis as the American dollar loses its reserve currency status and the euro collapses. A rare earth commodity standard will be considered.

#3 wasn’t so.

#4 wasn’t completely serious, but it wasn’t also completely wrong. It didn’t happen yet.

#5 didn’t happen either. Dammit again.

#8 didn’t happen, but there are feelers in that direction.

Hugh

Putin’s agents continue ranting in blogs all over world, blaming west for whatever. Russia gets poorer by 30% if not more. It still invests on weapons more than west Europe together.

Nope. Instead, Putin is thinking of having Turkey for his New Year’s dinner.

Nate

(1) Will the Obama administration pretend it has a treaty? Yes.

(2) Will the Senate ratify this or some suitable modification of this agreement? No.

(3) Politics — Jeb Bush becomes the “Republican front-runner” for 2016. At least in the media’s eyes.

(4) Famous Deaths — Keith Richards, Zsa Zsa Gabor, Bush the Elder, Fidel Castro.

(5) The Dismal Science — Another year of exuberance and Fed printing. Dow ends up another 10%. Not that I’m betting any of my hard earned cash on it.

(6) “America’s chickens coming home to roost.” More racial tension. More arguments over shootings by and of cops of people with darker skin, by people with no facts. Riots, perhaps.

(7) Academia continues to churn out PHDs with no job prospects. This one’s rain in Seattle though…

and

(8) Briggs wins the lottery.

#1 didn’t happen.

#2 didn’t happen.

#3 None of us saw Trump coming!

#4 are all still alive.

#5. Dow was about 18,000 start of last year, now under that. So, no.

#6 was right. But not tough.

#7 shows that it’s still raining in Seattle.

#8. No. DAMMIT!

Katie

1. Mitt Romney will be pushed off the primary slate.
2. Forecasters will muff predictions of a “big storm” for New York City.
3. Sheldon Silver will be indicted.

#1 is a yep.

#2 is a yep.

#3 is a big yep.

MattS

I predict that the world will not end in 2015.

It didn’t. Dammit.

Beowulf

(1) The Obama administration will bring back some kind of “agreement” Yes. Then an executive order to do it.
(2) The Senate will not accept this “agreement”, but in the end will dither, cower, and hope the matter is forgotten. Which it will be, officially. The EPA, however, will assume it is real and ramp up their already exponentially increasing stream of regulations. So true, so bad for all of US.

(5) Flirting will be come the new sexual harassment Charge, Petting will be the new Rape. (I hope not, but we shall see.)
(6) The Republicans will probably squander a great opportunity to win in 2016, delivering the nation into the hands of HRC, and the AGW folks. (I hope not, but we Republicans must always be principled right even at the expense of winning or sanity.)
(7) The Catholics have been right a only few times in the last couple of millenary. They will be wrong again.
(8) Working at Walmart becomes obsolete as Robots take over menial tasks. The last good Walmart job will be rounding up stray shopping carts in the parking lot or in the store.
(9)Light Sweet Crude oil prediction . EOY=$104

#1 happened, except for executive order. Yet.

#2 hasn’t happened. Yet.

#5 is right. Dammit.

#6 should be re-entered tomorrow.

#7 Some of us are, some of us not.

#8 hasn’t happened. Yet.

#9 looks like about twice the price? I’m no expert here.

Gary

1. Seahawks and Patriots in the Superbowl (correctly called now but first made at the beginning of the playoffs).
2. A barrel of oil will end the year at or above $75.
3. There will be the demise of a major Hollywood celebrity.
4. The DJIA will end the year above 19,500.
5. The Paris Summit on Climate will be more subdued and less reported in the media than past conferences. GreenPeace will not do anything stupid this time

#1 was right.

#2 was off by about 25 bucks.

#3. Whoa. We lost Rod Taylor, so there you are.

#4 didn’t happen.

#5 was way, way off, except for part about Greenpeace.

The Big Big Winner

Spruance came close, but only Katie batted 1.000. Congratulations! I’m sure she would have done just as well if all the comments were restored.

5 Comments

  1. Where’s my participation trophy? Kudos to Katie. The rest of us were so bad we should get another chance in 2016. How about specifying categories such politics, science, pop culture, culture war, economy, technology, etc. with one prediction in each? Throw in a free-choice category for fun too. That way we’ll all have a common standard for comparison.

  2. “here’s to waiting”
    When I heard about the paper from Lord Monckton’s talk I had a the hugest smile. Some months later I learned of the response, when I started reading the blog. The paper obviously got it bang on! Worth being hacked for? probably.
    Happy New Year! Mr. Briggs and Thank you.
    Cheers! to the climate modelers who must need a guinness.

    8&gfe_rd=cr&ei=YnOFVt7QDZLj8weXmp2oAg&gws_rd=ssl

    Cheers everyone!

  3. A bummer being hacked for having an opinion. How fun! having this type of participation on your blog.

  4. Ye Olde Statistician

    December 31, 2015 at 6:31 pm

    the sensitivity of the atmosphere to small increases in carbon dioxide was smaller than thought.

    Doesn’t that depend on how small thought is?

  5. Briggs

    December 31, 2015 at 7:13 pm

    YOS,

    Winner Dad Joke O’ The Day!

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