This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Would you mind pretty please making the predictions again?
Happy New Year! Hangover? Since I engaged in the ancient custom of hunkering down under blankets in case this turning of the calendar should usher in the long-awaited apocalypse, I have no hangover. This means my little gray cells are refreshed and limber, allowing me to make predictions superior to those made in previous years.
They’d better be, because my hit rate to date is ugly low. (Last year, 2013; more I’m too lazy to search for.)
Reader Gary suggests having a subject at which we can all have a go, in order to make fair comparisons. Since we have a lot of fun teasing people who still believe in global warming models, despite their record of having an even worse performance than ours at guessing the future, why not pick the upcoming Paris summit?
The purpose of this confab is to reach an agreement which is legally binding on everybody. So, though it seems an easy prognostication, let’s all say whether this agreement will indeed be reached.
The twist is the USA. The Obama administration, fond as it is in ignoring Congress, might well sign on to such an agreement feeling an “executive order” is sufficient for action. So your prediction comes in two parts: (1) will the Obama administration pretend it has a treaty, and (2) will the Senate ratify this or some suitable modification of this agreement?
As in previous years, please number your predictions, which makes it easy on me when I check them next year. You have one week to enter your guesses.
Here are my predictions.
(1) The Obama administration will bring back some kind of “agreement” which is not binding, but which they will pretend is by claiming that this is our “final chance.”
(2) The Senate, led now by the Republican branch of the Democrat party, will come close to accepting this “agreement”, but in the end will dither, cower, and hope the matter is forgotten. Which it will be, officially. The EPA, however, will assume it is real and ramp up their already exponentially increasing stream of regulations.
(3) “Student suspended for twirling pencil, subjected to five-hour evaluation”, “Teacher suspended on weapons charge for demonstrating carpentry tools”, “Student, 13, shares lunch, gets detention”. This are three of many Outrageous ‘Zero Tolerance’ Follies of 2014 collected by Lenore Skenazy. Not only will these asininities increase, but there will include at least two well publicized events tied to Common Core, that attempt by the federal government to lessen parental influence on their kids’ education.
(4) The NSA, CIA, FBI, and probably even the EPA, will continue to spy on citizens. There will be no recriminations. It’s for your own good.
(5) “Harvard Law School finally threw in the towel Tuesday after a four-year fight with the Obama administration over Title IX.” Source. Because Title IX—originally having something to do with sports but, as with all government regulations, expanded to cover more and more and more—mandates that colleges adopt the truly absurd idiotic monumentally dumb preponderance of evidence criterion of guilt for sexual “assault”, we really will see an “epidemic” of sexual “assault” cases (not assault, “assault”). This will lead to “outrage” and demands that even more stringent measures be adopted, which will (of course) cause another increase in cases, which will…you get the idea. This despite another branch of discovering a real sexual assault rate of 0.0061.
(6) “When rich conservatives give money to Republicans, it is a sign that the whole system has been corrupted by fat cats. When it is revealed that liberal billionaires and left-wing super PACs outspent conservative groups in 2014: crickets.” Source. “The premise of that case, Roe v. Wade, was also a hoax. Norma McCorvey lied about being raped to get an abortion in Texas…” Source. I don’t know what it will be, but some case will rise to national prominence which will confirm to all lefties that their worst fears have been realized, but which will turn out to have been a fraud. No lessons will be learned. Only the fear, which is self-justifying, will be remembered.
(7) The Synod on the family concludes this October. Truth will win, as it must, having the Ultimate Judge on its side. But this will lead to great dissatisfaction in those who assume the Church is yet another political association. Some of these malcontents will break away, receiving much sympathy for the “horrors” which they had to endure.
(8) On a less gloomy note, this will be the year in which your host finally lands a position appropriate to his abilities (such as sweeping floors down at the Walmarts).
My only prediction for 2015 is, that more than 50% of all predictions will be dead wrong.
Before you ask: Yes, the above prediction may be a canditate.
1. Briggs will announce he has begun rolling a die an infinite number of times in order to, once and for all, prove Frequentist theory false
2. The cold winter of 14-15 will be considered further proof that the earth has been irrevocably warmed by man
3. Irredentist movements will erupt in western Ukraine as folks there and in bordering countries recognize borders were moved in 1945
4. Those in control of the US government will get tired of poking Russia looking for a fight, so will start poking China
5. The US Supreme Court will side with Romneycare (er, Obamacare)
6. The younger generation will revolt against NSA spying since they will realize they never actually friended NSA
You’re welcome.
By which I mean, why ask people to make new ones when you have the old ones from the google cache?
Michael Hart,
I’ve found the old posts via Google Cache, but not the comments. I must be doing something wrong. What?
I hadn’t participated the first time (didn’t have any thoughts on most of the categories), I was also kinda busy.
One prediction I had thought about making (I kid you not), was that one side of the AGW argument would write a paper which would make the other side sit up and take notice!
Can I claim an honorary mention?
I posted a link yesterday, with 67 comments, on the “hacked” thread. Thus
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:glS4Mt9-OKkJ:wmbriggs.com/blog/%3Fp%3D15148+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
Does google have different caches for users in different locations, maybe?
1) Treaty will be signed.
2) Congress will not ratify, but EPA (through executive order) will take action.
3) Israel bombs Iran.
4) SCOTUS finds for the plaintiff regarding the ACA.
Thanks Michael, they seem to be all there so I assume that Briggs can recover them, but if not here are mine from the link you gave.
Predictions
1) Boy suspended whose perfect grade on a math exam was considered a micro-aggression against less able students.
2) The word “weather” is banned by the MSM which insists that the word “climate” must be used instead. For example: severe climate change expected tomorrow as cold front brings in heavy snow fall.
3) Stephen Harper will be re-elected as prime minister of Canada.
4) McDonald’s opens first fully automated food preparation restaurant. Millions love it but the left is incensed. They stage faint-ins (coaches optional) but few show up.
5) The educational bubble will burst with massive defaults on current student loans and the flight of lenders from the market.
6) The American government will seriously consider the implementation of a purple wage.
7) The next big reality show hit will follow a family of clam diggers near Five Islands, Nova Scotia. It will be called the muckrakers.
8) There will be a global currency crisis as the American dollar loses its reserve currency status and the euro collapses. A rare earth commodity standard will be considered.
Putin’s agents continue ranting in blogs all over world, blaming west for whatever. Russia gets poorer by 30% if not more. It still invests on weapons more than west Europe together.
(1) Will the Obama administration pretend it has a treaty? Yes.
(2) Will the Senate ratify this or some suitable modification of this agreement? No.
(3) Politics – Jeb Bush becomes the “Republican front-runner” for 2016. At least in the media’s eyes.
(4) Famous Deaths – Keith Richards, Zsa Zsa Gabor, Bush the Elder, Fidel Castro.
(5) The Dismal Science – Another year of exuberance and Fed printing. Dow ends up another 10%. Not that I’m betting any of my hard earned cash on it.
(6) “America’s chickens coming home to roost.” More racial tension. More arguments over shootings by and of cops of people with darker skin, by people with no facts. Riots, perhaps.
(7) Academia continues to churn out PHDs with no job prospects. This one’s rain in Seattle though…
and
(8) Briggs wins the lottery.
1. Mitt Romney will be pushed off the primary slate.
2. Forecasters will muff predictions of a “big storm” for New York City.
3. Sheldon Silver will be indicted.
Date: 12/31/2014
I predict that the world will not end in 2015.
(1) The Obama administration will bring back some kind of “agreement” Yes. Then an executive order to do it.
(2) The Senate will not accept this “agreement”, but in the end will dither, cower, and hope the matter is forgotten. Which it will be, officially. The EPA, however, will assume it is real and ramp up their already exponentially increasing stream of regulations. So true, so bad for all of US.
(3) Kids either get smarter or dumber, some will succeed, Most will fail.
(4) Yes. Spying increases
(5) Flirting will be come the new sexual harassment Charge, Petting will be the new Rape. (I hope not, but we shall see.)
(6) The Republicans will probably squander a great opportunity to win in 2016, delivering the nation into the hands of HRC, and the AGW folks. (I hope not, but we Republicans must always be principled right even at the expense of winning or sanity.)
(7) The Catholics have been right a only few times in the last couple of millenary. They will be wrong again.
(8) Working at Walmart becomes obsolete as Robots take over menial tasks. The last good Walmart job will be rounding up stray shopping carts in the parking lot or in the store.
I only remember a few of mine.
1. Seahawks and Patriots in the Superbowl (correctly called now but first made at the beginning of the playoffs).
2. A barrel of oil will end the year at or above $75.
3. There will be the demise of a major Hollywood celebrity.
4. The DJIA will end the year above 19,500.
5. The Paris Summit on Climate will be more subdued and less reported in the media than past conferences. GreenPeace will not do anything stupid this time (besides their usual idiotic pronouncements, of course).
Opps. Forgot my Light Sweet Crude oil prediction . EOY=$104