When does more crime happen, in winter or summer? Why? Too easy. How about this one: according to the FBI, what was the violent crime rate over time? No need to guess. It’s pictured above. The per capita all violent crime percent from 1960 to 2012 (the last year available). Looks to be coming down some since 1991, wouldn’t you say? (The plots for other crime types, including gun crimes, all have the same general shape.)
Say, isn’t the time range of this plot the period where the our-of-control global warming “climate catastrophe” began in earnest? Let’s look at what NOAA’s GISS says:
I’m not in the least interested in arguing about this data; for the sake of argument, let’s just accept it as it is. Look, however, only at the black dots, which are the actual data. The red line is a smoother, i.e. a model, and is not what happened. The model is not the data! Don’t smooth your time series data! (Look here and here for why.)
Let’s tie it all together. Does it look to you like climate change is “correlated” with the violent crime rate? If you’re Chris Mooney or an academic hot for a sensational paper or a member of the media anxious to signal your cooperation with government, you must say yes. Us ordinary folk, not addled by ideology, will say no.
The Washington Post put up yet another fantasy of Mooney’s entitled “There’s a surprisingly strong link between climate change and violence“. I don’t mean to be snarky, I really don’t. But this guy routinely provokes me beyond my ability to resist. May the Lord forgive me.
Mooney cites some new meta analysis, a study I’ll dissect in due course, “of the existing research examining the relationship between climate change and violence and conflict.” Here’s the meat:
Climate variables considered in these papers included temperature increases as well as drought and rainfall changes. Conflict was analyzed in terms of clashes between individuals (like fistfights) and fights between groups (like wars). After taking it all in, the authors found compelling evidence of a link between changes in temperature and increases in conflict, noting that “deviations from moderate temperatures and precipitation patterns systematically increase the risk of conflict, often substantially, with average effects that are highly statistically significant.” Bottom line: In an ever warming world, expect more wars, civil unrest, and strife, and also more violent crime in general.
Yes, that makes sense. A statistical model which analyzes simultaneously fist fights and wars. Almost as sensible as measuring how eight-year-olds spend their allowance and the machinations of the World Bank. Hey! It’s science!
The lesson is: never ever not ever never never believe a meta analysis at its face value. It is one of the most abused statistical techniques. Smoothing time series data is another. Never mind.
Mooney gets one thing partly right when he asks, “Why do hotter temperatures produce more violence?” The obvious answer—as long as we factor out all modern wars, many of which inconveniently occur in winter; in olden days, winter made it difficult to fight; who could have guessed?—is the one we started this post with. People are out in the summer’s long warm days, and inside in the winter’s short cold days. Easy.
Yet not so easy for Mooney and for academics for whom the obvious is never good enough.
Now I would have ignored the article, putting it down as yet another attempt to prove our lying eyes aren’t seeing what they’re seeing (the two graphs above). But Mooney had to go and mention baseball. (I’m a Tigers fan. I don’t want to talk about it.) Mooney thinks a paper he uncovered is terrific proof that climate change makes us more violent.
He quotes from the awful peer-reviewed paper “Temper, Temperature, and Temptation: Heat-Related Retaliation in Baseball” in Psychological Science (2011; 22(4) 423Â–428) by Richard P. Larrick and some others. Larrick checked whether increasing temperatures were associated with more beanballs. The authors admitted they were not.
So, their theory busted but still desiring a paper, the authors had to try something else. How about retaliation? Do increasing temperatures cause more? Mooney shows a graph from their paper which is so silly that I refuse to picture it. He presents this graph, as do the authors, as if it were data. Which it is not. It is the output from a preposterously complex regression model (they “control” for 13 things!).
Baseball fans: when do more beanballs, and hence more retaliations take place, in chilly April when the season has just begun and all are of good cheer, or late in hot August when tempers are up and when games start to feel a lot more crucial? Is the observed discrepancy therefore caused by climate change?
Good grief, what a rotten paper, what a rotten theory.