I’m starting—and even continuing, if there is interest—a new video series on the philosophy of probability and statistics.
Look at those retro production values! I boast of them following Julia Child who advised to say when anybody asked as pointed question about a meal, “It’s supposed to be like that.”
Probability is a matter of logic. It does not exist; it is not a physical, real thing. It measures how true one thing is with respect to another, which is to say, how true one proposition is given a set of premises or data. When premises change, so does the probability. This is demonstrated using divination stones, bwa bwei.
Note to computer geeks. I don’t have a camera, so I recorded this video with a Logitech webcam on my Kubuntu machine (the minimal Dell laptop). I tried ffmpeg, cheese, but settled on VLC for recording. I had endless difficulties with the audio being out of sync with the video, a very common problem. Except for the tip to install everything related to gstreamer, searching for solutions did not help. Everything failed.
Finally I recognized that the audio was jumping each time the computer dimmed its screen, which it did automatically at stated intervals. So I switched off of the power management and found joy.
I used kdelive to edit the video, and to the best of my ability compensated for the fluctuating white balance and other imperfections. Many flaws remain, as is obvious. Including the frightening mien of the presenter. But life is imperfect.