Quoting from a post on vampires, “In Bayesian inference, you start with some initial beliefs (called ‘Bayesian priors’ or just ‘priors’), and then you ‘update’ them as you receive new evidence.” This […]
The Gambler’s Fallacy Proves Classical Statistics (Frequentist & Bayes) Fails
Everybody who’s anybody—which makes, as we’ll see, a lot of nobodies—knows the gambler’s fallacy. Gambler watches the roulette wheel come up red six times running and says to himself, “Black is due.” […]
Number 1 Book In Epistemology & In Logic! Get It While It’s Hot!
It’s probably gone by now, but for a little while my new book, Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics, was “#1 New Release in Epistemology” then “#1 New Release in […]
Uncertainty (#1 New Release in Statistics) Book Page — Here Are The Details. Update!
This isn’t the book page. This is. Or you can buy it here. The page is permanently located at the menu bar at the top of the page, at the far left. […]
The Hierarchy Of Models: From Causal (Best) To Statistical (Worst)
There is a hierarchy of models in the sense they offer insight into the thing modeled. The order of importance is: causal, deterministic, probabilistic, statistical. Most models use mixtures of these elements. […]
Preface to Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics
The book is now at a 15% discount at Amazon (I apologize for the price). Buy today. And buy again tomorrow! This will be linked permanently on the book’s official page. Springer […]
Book Update — Uncertainty & Breaking The Law Of Averages
I’ll have the page proofs for Uncertainty mid week and I’ve until 10 June to turn them back in. (I begin teaching on the 13th.) This puts publication in early July. They […]
Third Way Of Probability & Statistics Gets Comments
I just discovered a written comment, actually two, on my sketch-paper “The Third Way Of Probability & Statistics: Beyond Testing and Estimation To Importance, Relevance, and Skill“. Now when I say “I” […]
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