This subject comes up so often and in so many places, and so many people ask me about it, that I thought a short explanation would be appropriate. You may also search for “running mean” (on this site) for more … Continue Reading Do not calculate correlations after smoothing data
I’ve had a number of requests to show how smoothing inflates certainty, so I’ve created a couple of easy simulations that you can try in the privacy of your own home. The computer code is below, which I’ll explain later. … Continue Reading Demonstration of how smoothing causes inflated certainty (and egos?)
Most statistics purporting to show that there has been an increase in hurricanes do not use the best statistical methods. I want to highlight one particular method that is often misused, and which can lead one to falsely conclude that … Continue Reading Hurricanes have not increased: misuse of running means
Parts of this analysis were suggested by Allan MacRae, who kindly offered comments on the exposition of this article which greatly improved its readability. The article is incomplete, but I wanted to present the style of analysis, which I feel … Continue Reading CO<sub>2</sub> and Temperature: which predicts which?