Time for our annual guessing game about what’s to come for 2013. The predictions we made for 2012 will be posted and analyzed tomorrow. We have one week to enter our predictions, after which no further entries will be accepted. … Continue Reading Predictions 2013—Register Yours Today!
Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most predictive of success: The Most Popular picture routinely made about … Continue Reading Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference
This inescapable fact, that the conditioning evidence is only assumed and is therefore subjectively defined, is responsible for much acrimony about accuracy. Thus the reason we attempt to eliminate wiggle room and that we insist on clear lines in advance … Continue Reading What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part III
In 1979, Dan White1 was tried for the assassinations of San Francisco city district Supervisor Harvey Milk and Mayor George Moscone. His lawyers argued that he had diminished capacity and was unable to premeditate his crime. Part of the evidence … Continue Reading The Twinkie Defense Defended: Soda Pop And Violence In Teens