Anons emails about experience with bad modeling. These read very like posts you see here daily. Lightly edited to remove personal information, with links by me. The post about the Lancet pollution […]
How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty
Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now “climate change”, a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has many […]
Coal Dust Is Claimed To Kill Old People: A New Instance of the Epidemiologist Fallacy
There are a lot of new readers, and many may not yet have heard of the epidemiologist fallacy. Few tools have been as productive at generating The Science. You know The Science. […]
The Reason Why Much Science Is Broken: Every Use Of P-Values Is A Logical Fallacy
I made this picture for my talk at the first ever public Broken Science event (videos coming soon): Everybody has heard the saying “correlation doesn’t imply causation.” Taken loosely, it seems wrong, […]
“Why Didn’t Use You The [fill in the blank] Model On That NZ Data, Briggs?”
“Hey, Briggs. I saw your take on the leaked New Zealand vaccine data. Interesting. But why didn’t you use [Insert My Favorite Statistics Model Here]?” [Blog, Substack mirror.] I’ll tell you why […]
More Proof Hypothesis Testing Is Wrong & Why The Predictive Method Is The Only Sane Way To Do Statistics
Here it is, friends, the one complete universal simple function, the only function you will ever need to fit any—I said any—dataset x. And all it takes is one—I said one—parameter! . […]
What The Law Of Large Numbers Really Means
JJ Couey, who hosts a podcast well known to some of you, and friend of the Broken Science Initiative, asked me about the so-called Law of Large Numbers. Jay wonders about sample […]
The Regime’s New De Facto “AI” Law And The End Of Pattern Recognition
News is that Regime put out a new law, bypassing Congress as usual, in the form of an “executive order”, about “AI”. The new law’s title is “Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial […]
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