Most statistics purporting to show that there has been an increase in hurricanes do not use the best statistical methods. I want to highlight one particular method that is often misused, and which can lead one to falsely conclude that … Continue Reading Hurricanes have not increased: misuse of running means
Many, even most, studies that contain a statistical component use frequentist, also called classical, techniques. The gist of those methods is this: data is collected, a probability model for that data is proposed, a function of the observed data—a statistic—is … Continue Reading How many false studies in medicine are published every year?
As is well known by now, a passel of climatologists in the 1970s, including such personalities as Stephen “It’s OK to Exaggerate To Get People To Believe” Schneider, tried to get the world excited about the possibility, and the dire … Continue Reading Two differences in perception between global cooling and global warming
The Future of Everything by David Orrell. Thunder’s Mouth Press, New York. I wanted to like this book, which was supposed to be an examination of how well scientists made predictions—my special area of interest—but I couldn’t. It wasn’t just … Continue Reading “The Future of Everything” by David Orrell