Resume
Experience
2003-present. Biostatistical and epidemiological consultant, New York Methodist Hospital, New York
I teach a course to the Emergency Medicine and Surgical residents in basic epidemiology and statistics, and I consult on departmental research projects and maintain several of their study databases. I sit on the Institutial Review Committee as a guest member to review the statistics of proposed research. Helped in the preparation and submission of grants to the NIH and for-profit entities.
1998-present. Statistical consultant, Various companies
Build databases, provide analytic support and data analysis, create simple but informative graphics, teach small and large classes in statistics, critical thinking, use of software, write articles, and so forth.
Aug 2007-Dec 2007. Visiting Professor, Department Mathematics, Central Michigan University.
2003-Aug 2007. Faculty in Clinical Epidemiology, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York
2004-Aug 2007. Adjunct Assistant Professor of Statistical Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
My research interests are prediction, diagnosis, and prognosis accuracy and usefulness; skill and cognitive biases in prediction; practical decision analysis; dynamical and ensemble forecasting; graphical data display; placebo statistics; induction; philosophical interpretations of statistics and probability; Bayesian foundations and the nature of evidence; Bayesian probability as it’s used in physics; and the adoption of Open Source software for publicly-funded clinical trials, particularly the development of the DrClamp web-based database. I teach courses in statistics, emphasizing both Bayesian and classical methods, and I consult and perform analysis on a wide array of clinical trials.
Assisted in the preparation and submission of many, many grants to various private and public institutions. I wrote the sample justification and data analysis plans plus co-wrote the methods sections. Became honorary Santa Claus mathematician (see main page).
2002-2003. Gotham Risk Management, New York
A start up then, after Enron’s shenanigans, a start down. We set future weather derivative and weather insurance contract prices that incorporated information from medium- and long-range weather and climate forecasts. A white paper is available on my web page.
1998-2002. DoubleClick, New York
I built an expensive and huge optimization engine for a web-based ad matching network, the details of which are terribly dull. Short version: click-through optimization, enormous database with about $10^8$ names, updated daily, clever modelling and scoring, all heavy-duty computational statistics.
1993-1998. Graduate student, Cornell University
Started studying of how long-range climate forecasts interacted with a crop model in the Atmospheric Science group, then switched to full time statistics. Was involved in the long-running environmental statistics consulting group, did work in tensor product splines and image analysis, then finished with practical decision analysis work. Was Vice Chair of the graduate student government.
1992-1993. National Weather Service, Sault Ste. Marie, MI
Forecast storms o’ the day and launched enormous balloons in the name of science. My proudest moment came when I was able to convince an ancient AT machine to talk to an analog (phone-coupled!) modem, all using {\tt BASIC}.
1992-1993. Sault Ste. Marie. Evening News
I wrote a free-lance science column for which I received free papers. And I was grateful for them.
1989-1992. Undergraduate student, Central Michigan University
Basic undergraduate meteorology degree, with an emphasis on dynamics and math. Started the local student meteorology group, which is now affliated with the AMS. Was involved with an FAA experiment of de-icing fluids. Spent a summer at U Michigan in a NSF REU program playing with a lidar used to model boundary layer dynamics. Won the Howard T. Orville scholarship from the AMS.
1983-1989. United States Air Force
Cryptography and other secret stuff. Shot things. I adopted and became proficient with fascinating and versatile military vocabulary. Ask me for examples. TS/SCI+ security clearance.
Activities
DrClamp, Ph.P. open-source project creator and leader. The primary purpose of Dr. Clamp is to have one place to manage and enter data, track patients, view reports, draw graphs, and analyze statistics. It was primarily designed for clinical trials, but it works for any patient/subject/person study where the data are best entered through a web page.
Monthly Weather Review: Associate Editor.
American Meteorological Society: Member of the Probability and Statistics Committee. Plan for short courses and regular meetings.
R. Development work on the verification package, which is maintained by Matt Pocernich at NCAR, who has done 99.9% of the work. I wrote the (outline of) skill function. Email for details.
Data Safety and Monitoring Boards and other similar activities. Current board member for a Columbia study involving medication adherence in hypertension patients.
Consultant—standard statistics consulting. Listed as a consultant on several pending grant submissions for studies at Columbia and New York Methodist Hospital.
Reviewer J American Statistical Association, Monthly Weather Review, Weather and Forecasting, J Geophysical Research, National Science Foundation, others.
Education
Ph.D., Statistics, Cornell University, 2004.
M.S., Atmospheric Science, Cornell University, 1995.
B.S., Summa Cum Laude, Meteorology and Math, Central Michigan University, 1992.
Languages
R, SAS, SPSS, PHP, Perl, Matlab, Octave, Fortran (yes, really, but rustily), C, ML (I’m working on this one because it is very slick), SQL, DHTML, some Java and Javascript, Linux scripting (by no means not an expert).
Professional memberships
American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, International Institute of Forecasting, American Association for the Advancement of Science
News!
Contact information
matt@wmbriggs.com
mattstat[-a-t-]gmail[-d-o-t-]com
917-392-0691
K2JM (on air; amateur radio)
Academic papers
Draft papers
Briggs, WM, 2007RA Zaretzki, 2007. Some new posterior predictive diagnostic tools. Draft.
Briggs, WM, 2007. Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones Draft.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0702131 (pdf)
Briggs, WM, 2007. On the non-arbitrary assignment of equi-probable priors arxiv.org/math.ST/0701331. (pdf)
Peer-reviewed Methods papers
Briggs, WM, 2007. On the changes in number and intensity of North Atlantic tropical cyclones Journal of Climate. Accepted. arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701345 (first draft) (most current draft)
Briggs, WM, 2007. Broccoli Reduces The Risk of Splenetic Fever! The use of induction and falsifiability in statistics and model selection. Statistical Science. In review. (pdf)
Briggs, WM, Positive evidence for non-arbitrary assignments of probability. Proceedings 27th International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering. American Institute of Physics. In Press. (pdf)
Briggs, WM, R Zaretzki, 2007. The Skill Plot: a graphical technique for the evaluating the predictive usefulness of continuous diagnostic tests. With discussion. Biometrics. In press. (pdf)
Briggs, WM, 2006. The optimal combination of probabilistic forecasts to maximize skill. International Journal of Forecasting. In review.
Briggs, WM, and D Ruppert, 2006. Assessing the skill of yes/no forecasts for Markov observations. Monthly Weather Review. 134, 2601-2611. (pdf)
Briggs, WM, M Pocernich, and D Ruppert, 2005. Incorporating misclassification error in skill assessment. Monthly Weather Review, 133(11), 3382-3392. (pdf)
Briggs, WM, 2005. A general method of incorporating forecast cost and loss in value scores. Monthly Weather Review, 133(11), 3393-3397. (pdf)
Briggs, WM, and D Ruppert, 2005. Assessing the skill of Yes/No Predictions. Biometrics. 61(3), 799-807. (pdf)
Briggs, WM, 2004. Discussion to Gel, Y, AE Raftery, T Gneiting, and V.J. Berrocal, 2004. Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting: The Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) Method. J. American Statistical Association. 99 (467): 586-587.
Mozer, JB, and Briggs, WM, 2003. Skill in real-time solar wind shock forecasts. J. Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 108 (A6), SSH 9 p. 1-9, (DOI 10.1029/2003JA009827). (pdf)
Briggs, W.M., and R.A. Levine, 1997. Wavelets and Field Forecast Verification. Monthly Weather Review, 25 (6), 1329-1341. (pdf)
Briggs, WM, and DS Wilks, 1996. Estimating monthly and seasonal distributions of temperature and precipitation using the new CPC long-range forecasts. Journal of Climate, 9, 818-826.
Briggs, WM, and DS Wilks, 1996. Extension of the CPC long-lead temperature and precipitation outlooks to general weather statistics. Journal of Climate, 9, 3496-3504.
Reviews
Briggs, WM, 2006. Review of Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (second edition, 2006) by Wilks, D.S. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101 (in press).
Briggs, WM, 1999. Review of Forecasting: Methods and Applications (third edition, 1998) by Makridakis, Wheelwright, and Hyndman; and Elements of Forecasting (first edition, 1998) by Diebold. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94, 345-346.
Peer-reviewed Applications papers
Charlson ME, CHarlson RE, Marinopoulos S, McCulloch C, Briggs WM, Hollenberg J, 2006. Adapting a comorbidity index to predict the costs of chronic disease in primary care residents. J General Internal Medicine. In review.
Mancuso, CA, T Choi, H Westermann, WM Briggs, S Wenderoth, 2007. Asthma patients are more likely to have a positive screen for depression with the center for epidemiological studies depression scale-SF than with the geriatric depression scale. J Clinical Epidemiology. In review.
Zandieh, SO, Briggs WM, Kuder JM, Sparer M, Gershel J, Mancuso CA, 2007. Negative perceptions of healthcare among caregivers of children auto-assigned to a medicaid managed care health plan. Archives of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine. In review.
Ullery, BW, JC Peterson, FM, WM Briggs, LN Girardi, W Ko, AJ Tortolani, OW Isom, K Krieger, 2007. Cardiac Surgery in Nonagenarians: Should We or Shouldn’t We? Annals of Thoracic Surgery. In Review.
Loizzo,J, J Peterson, E Wolf, M Altemis, WM Briggs, L Vahdat,and M Charlson, 2007. The effect of a contemplative self-healing program on quality of life in women with breast cancer and other gynecologic cancers. New York Academy of Sciences. In press.
Boutin-Foster C., Ogedegbe G., Peterson J., Briggs M., Allegrante J., Charlson ME., 2006. Psychosocial mediators of the relationship between race/ethnicity and depressive symptoms in Latino and white patients with coronary artery disease. J. National Medical Association. In press.
Charlson ME, Boutin-Foster C., Mancuso C., Ogedegbe G., Peterson J., Briggs M., Allegrante J., Robbins L., Isen A., 2006. Using positive affect and self affirmation to inform and to improve self management behaviors in cardiopulmonary patients: Design, rationale and methods. Controlled Clinical Trials. In press.
Charlson, M, Peterson J., Syat B, Briggs WM, Kline R, Dodd M, Murad V, Dione W, 2007. Outcomes of Community Based Social Service Interventions in Homebound Elders Int. J. Geriatric Psychiatry. Accepted.
Charlson ME, Peterson F, Boutin-Foster C, Briggs WM, Ogedegbe G, McCulloch C, et al., 2006. Changing health behaviors after angioplasty: a randomized-controlled clinical trial. Health Education Research. In press.
Charlson ME, Peterson F, Krieger K, Hartman GS, Hollenberg J, Briggs WM, et al., 2006. Improvement of outcomes after coronary artery bypass. J. Cardiac Surgey. In press.
D’Ayala, M, C Martone, R M Smith, WM Briggs, M Potouridis, J S Deitch, and L Wise, 2006. The effect of systemic anticoagulation in patients undergoing angioaccess surgery. Annals of Vascular Surgery. In press.
Mancuso, CA, T Choi, H Westermann, WM Briggs, S Wenderoth, 2007. Measuring physical activity in asthma patients: two-minute walk test, repeated chair rise test, and self-reported energy expenditure? J. Asthma. 44(4), 333-40.
Charlson ME, Boutin-Foster C, Mancuso CA, Peterson F, Ogedegbe G, Briggs WM, Robbins L, Isen A, Allegrante JP, 2006. Randomized Controlled Trials of Positive Affect and Self-affirmation to Facilitate Healthy Behaviors in Patients with Cardiopulmonary Diseases: Rationale, Trial Design, and Methods. Contemporary Clinical Trials. PMID: 17459784.
Charlson ME, Charlson RE, Briggs WM, Hollenberg J, 2006. Can disease management target patients most likely to generate high costs. J. General Internal Medicine. 22(4), 464-9.
Birkhahn, WM Briggs, PA Datillo, SK Van Deusen, TJ Gaeta, 2006. Classifying patients suspected of appendicitis with regard to likelihood. American Journal of Surgery, 191(4), 497-502.
Milla F, Skubas N, Briggs WM, Girardi LN, Lee LY, Ko W, Tortolani AJ, Krieger KH, Isom OW, Mack CA, 2006. Epicardial beating heart cryoablation using a novel argon-based cryoclamp and linear probe. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg., 131(2), 403-11.
Milling, TJ, C Holden, LA Melniker, WM Briggs, R Birkhahn, TJ Gaeta, 2006. Randomized controlled trial of single-operator vs. two-operator ultrasound guidance for internal jugular central venous cannulation. Acad Emerg Med., 13(3), 245-7.
Birkhahn, SK Van Deusen, O Okpara, PA Datillo, WM Briggs, TJ Gaeta, 2006. Funding and publishing trends of original research by emergency medicine investigators over the past decade. Annals of Emergency Medicine, 13(1), 95-101
Melniker LA, Leibner E, McKenney MG, Lopez P, Briggs WM, Mancuso CA., 2006. Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial of Point-of-Care, Limited Ultrasonography (PLUS) for Trauma in the Emergency Department: The First Sonography Outcomes Assessment Program (SOAP-1) Trial. Annals of Emergency Medicine. 48(3), 227-235.
Milling, TJ, J Rose, WM Briggs, R Birkhahn, TJ Gaeta, JJ Bove, and LA Melniker, 2005. Randomized, controlled clinical trial of point-of-care limited ultrasonography assistance of central venous cannulation: the Third Sonography Outcomes Assessment Program (SOAP-3) Trial. Crit Care Med. 33(8), 1764-9.
Garfield JL, Birkhahn RH, Gaeta TJ, Briggs WM, 2004. Diagnostic Delays and Pathways on Route to Operative Intervention in Acute Appendicitis. American Surgeon. 70(11), 1010-1013.
Birkhahn RH, Gaeta TJ, Tloczkowski J, Mundy TA, Sharma M, Bove JJ, Briggs WM, 2003. Emergency medicine trained physicians are proficient in the insertion of transvenous pacemakers. Annals of Emergency Medicine. 43 (4), 469-474
Preprints and abstracts (partial list only)
Briggs, WM, 2007. On equi-probable priors, MAX ENT 2007, Saratoga Springs, NY.
Briggs, WM, and RA Zaretzki, 2006. On producing probability forecasts (from ensembles). 18th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Briggs, WM, and RA Zaretzki, 2006. Improvements on the ROC Curve: Skill Plots for Forecast Evaluation. Invited. Joint Research Conference on Statistics in Quality Industry and Technology, Knoxville, TN.
Briggs, WM, and RA Zaretzki, 2005. Skill Curves and ROC Curves for Diagnoses, or Why Skill Curves are More Fun. Joint Statistical Meetings, American Stat. Soc., Minneapolis, MN.
Briggs, W.M., 2005. On the optimal combination of probabilistic forecasts to maximize skill. International Symposium on Forecasting San Antonio, TX. International Institute of Forecasters. (pdf)
Briggs, W.M., and D. Ruppert, 2004. Assessing the skill of yes/no forecasts for Markov observations. 17th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. (pdf)
Melniker, L., E. Liebner, B. Tiffany, P. Lopez, W.M. Briggs, M. McKenney, 2004. Randomized clinical trial of point-of-care limited ultrasonography (PLUS) for trauma in the emergency department. Annals of Emergency Medicine, 44.
Birkhahn RH, Gaeta TJ, Van Deusen SK, Briggs WM, 2004. Classifying patients suspected of appendicitis with regard to likelihood. Annals of Emergency Medicine, 44 (4): S17-S17 51 Suppl. S.
Zandieh, S.O., W.M. Briggs, J.M. Kuder, and C.A. Mancuso, 2004. Negative perceptions of health care among caregivers of children auto-assigned to a Medicaid managed care health plan. Ambulatory Pediatric Association Meeting, San Francisco, CA; and National Research Service Award Trainees Conference, San Diego, CA.
Melniker, L., E. Liebner, B. Tiffany, P. Lopez, M. Sharma, W.M. Briggs, M. McKenney, 2003. Cost Analysis of Point-of-care, Limited Ultrasonography (PLUS) in Trauma Patients: The Sonography Outcomes Assessment Program (SOAP)-1 Trial. Academic Emergency Medicine, 11, 568.
Melniker, L.A., W.M. Briggs, and C.A. Mancuso, 2003. Including comorbidity in the assessment of trauma patients: a revision of the trauma injury severity score. J Clin Epidemiol, Sep., 56(9), 921. PMID: 14505784
Briggs, W.M., and R.A. Levine, 1998. Comparison of forecasts using the bootstrap. 14th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1-4.
Briggs, W.M., and R. Zaretzki, 1998. The effect of randomly spaced observations on field forecast error scores. 14th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 5-8.
Briggs, W.M., and R.A. Levine, 1996. Wavelets and image comparison: new approaches to field forecast verification. 13th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, San Francisco, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 274-277.
Briggs, W.M., and D.S. Wilks, 1996. Modifying parameters of a daily stochastic weather generator using long-range forecasts. 13th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, San Francisco, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 243-2246.
Books
So You Think You’re Psychic?. This is a popular book written to slyly inculcate some skepticism into those who believe in the paranormal. I outline several experiments that anybody can do, then show how they can go wrong, how the statistics are misinterpreted, how normal explanations can mask as paranormal ones, and so on. I have a page for the book:
Or you can even buy it!
Stats 101. Who doesn’t love Statistics? You, almost certainly. Statistics classes are very badly taught, filled with useless memorization, time-wasting hand calculations, and boring examples. This book is my attempt to fix that. What you are downloading is a draft, not nearly complete; but there is enough meat to show you where I am going. Stay tuned to this page for updates.
