William M. Briggs, Statistician

I am wrong about a lot of things (see my essay “Let them Fail”), and it is a truism to say that I might be wrong about this, but I still think McCain will win.

Naturally, I am aware of wishcasting, and that I might be misleading myself. But I do not think so.

For example, today at the office (in Park Slope, Brooklyn, a very, very solid Democrat stronghold) the subject of race and the election came up. Obviously, some wanted to enjoy carping about how people would not vote for Obama because he is black, a favorite topic. But before anybody could start, I offered, “Yes, I think it is true that many people will vote for Obama because he is black.”

…

“Well,” it was finally countered, “Black people will certainly…” I said, “Yes, and many whites will vote for him because he is black, too.”

“Enough to counter the people who will note vote for him?” I was asked.

“I have no idea,” I said. “Maybe about the same.”

The point of this story is to show that the support from the far left is as always. Nothing much has changed from that quarter. The same reflexive, non-reflective support given to any Democrat candidate is there, as it always has been. There is nothing unusual or unexpected.

So what is new that has changed, what might be different? Why are people who had been until recently predicting an Obama defeat, are now starting to whimper?

I have been hearing fearful concerns from some McCain supporters lately. They site two sources of evidence for their despair: (1) reports in the media, and (2) the polls.

To listen to any opinion from the New York Times-esque. media is foolish, and these same people who are now wringing their hands because of reports from that quarter will often, and loudly, tell you not to pay them any mind. So it is surprising that they are now giving in to its sway.

So I need to remind them that the media is informed by the polls. Now, before the economic meltdown and government power grab, the polls had McCain ahead. Then…it hit! (Cue Burl Ives). It was that speech by McCain saying that it is morning in America—no, that the economic fundamentals that make America the best country on Earth are sound, that caused the current difficulties.

This insouciance angered a lot of people. “But look at my 401(k)!” they said, and “He better think about what he is saying!”

When next the pollsters came calling, the callees showed their anger—their temporary disfavor—by saying, “Hell, no. I’m not voting for McCain.” Which I need hardly point out is not the same as saying, “I’m for Obama!”

In short, voters are angry (as I was) and are punishing McCain in the only way they can. But when it comes time to draw a veil and punch a chad, they will calm down and and come back to the fold.

Plus, this Tenured (!) Terrorist Bill Ayers flap has not finalized. The only counter arguments I have seen have been of the type, “But Obama was yet a mere child when Ayers was attempting to murder his fellow citizens.” Very true. Which means Obama should have certainly known that this is a man who long ago should have been strung up by the neck. And not a man in whose apartment you hang out.

Incidentally, my dear readers, do not fall into the trap of repeating the phraseology heard on TV. “The unrepentant terrorist Bill Ayers…” is a sentence heard and seen everywhere. The word unrepentant is superfluous as its opposite would only mean that Ayers should get a better gravestone.

The same experts, in Congress and out, who did not foresee and who promulgated the current banking/credit crisis are the same ones assuring us their plan for salvation is just the thing.

Is it rational to believe that these creatures have finally figured out what is best for us? Or is better to say: Stop! Just let things fall out where they may. Let the people who caused this pay the price for their own mistakes.

Analysis so far suggests that the entire mess was brought on by Congressional prompting, in the form of laws which would penalize banks for not making risky loans, and by unscrupulous financiers who figured how to game the system. Also to blame are the people who bought absurdly constructed loans, the kind which they knew they would not be able to eventually afford. It is ridiculous to claim that these people were duped by forces more powerful than themselves. Nobody coerced anybody into buying a house.

And who twisted arms of bank executives to pay their failing CEOs millions? What rewards were given to financial engineers who packaged and sold the most creative sub-prime mortgage-backed securities?

There are many guilty parties here, not the least of which are our own elected representatives who reflexively believe that throwing money—as quickly as possible—at any problem is always the solution.

Thus, the belly-aching speech about partisanship by the appalling Nancy Pelosi after the failed vote was particularly galling. Here are two statistics of interest about yesterday’s “bailout” vote:

40% of House Democrats voted no.

33% of House Republicans voted yes

Which is to say, a fairly uniform rejection by both sides of the aisle.

Thank God for that. I in no way want to give any of my money to either over-confident corporate executives or to the people who will lose their homes. I am utterly unconvinced that I should feel any sense of responsibility for any of this mess.

In this current “bailout”, I feel the same way as when asked to contribute money to people who built their houses on a coastal area well known to be in a location of frequent hurricanes. How is their stupidity my problem?

Whatever the solution is, it is not more government.

Incidentally, it’s been little reported so far, but the Fed has already started printing more money to “infuse cash into the system.” One figure I read is $600 million. Next stop: inflation. Some bailout!

Here is a question I added to my chapter on logic today.

New York City “Health Czar” Thomas Frieden (D), who successfully banned smoking and trans fat in restaurants and who now wants to add salt to the list, said in an issue of Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes that “cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in the United States.” Describe why no government or no person, no matter the purity of their hearts, can ever eliminate the leading cause of death.

I’ll answer that in a moment. First, Frieden is engaged in yet another attempt by the government to increase control over your life. Their reasoning goes “You are not smart enough to avoid foods which we claim—without error—are bad for you. Therefore, we shall regulate or ban such foods and save you from making decisions for yourself. There are some choices you should not be allowed to make.”

The New York Sun reports on this in today’s paper (better click on that link fast, because today could be the last day of that paper).

“We’ve done some health education on salt, but the fact is that it’s in food and it’s almost impossible for someone to get it out,” Dr. Frieden said. “Really, this is something that requires an industry-wide response and preferably a national response.”…”Processed and restaurant foods account for 77% of salt consumption, so it is nearly impossible for consumers to greatly reduce their own salt intake,” they wrote. Similarly, regarding sugar, they wrote: “Reversing the increasing intake of sugar is central to limiting calories, but governments have not done enough to address this threat.”

Get that? It’s nearly impossible for “consumers” (they mean people) to regulate their own salt intake. “Consumers” are being duped and controlled by powers greater than themselves, they are being forced to eat more salt than they want. But, lo! There is salvation in building a larger government! If that isn’t a fair interpretation of the authors’ views, then I’ll (again) eat my hat.

The impetus for Frieden’s latest passion is noticing that salt (sodium) is correlated—but not perfectly predictive of, it should be emphasized—with cardiovascular disease, namely high blood pressure (HBP). This correlation makes physical sense, at least. However, because sodium is only correlated with HBP, it means that for some people average salt intake is harmless or even helpful (Samuel Mann, a physician at Cornell, even states this).

What is strange is that, even by Frieden’s own estimate (from the Circulation paper), the rate of hypertension in NYC is four percentage points lower than the rest of the nation! NYC is about 26%, the rest of you are at about 30% If these estimates are accurate, it means New York City residents are doing better than non residents. This would argue that we should mandate non-city companies should emulate the practices of restaurants and food processors that serve the city. It in no way follows that we should burden city businesses with more regulation.

Sanity check:

[E]xecutive vice president of the New York State Restaurant Association, Charles Hunt…said any efforts to limit salt consumption should take place at home, as only about 25% of meals are consumed outside the home.

“I’m concerned in that they have a tendency to try to blame all these health problems on restaurants…This nanny state that has been hinted about, or even partially created, where the government agencies start telling people what they should and shouldn’t eat, when they start telling restaurants they need to take on that role, we think its beyond the purview of government,” Mr. Hunt said.

Amen, Mr Hunt. It just goes to show you why creators and users of statistics have such a bad reputation. Even when the results are dead against you, it is still possible to claim what you want to claim. It’s even worse here, because it isn’t even clear what the results are. By that I mean, the statements made by Frieden and other physicians are much more certain than they should be given the results of his paper. Readers of this blog will not find that unusual.

What follows is a brief but technical description of the Circulation paper (and homework answer). Interested readers can click on. Continue Reading »

Hope in academia?

Thanks again to Dennis Dutton’s Arts & Letters Daily for the link to Graphs on the death of Marxism, postmodernism, and other stupid academic fads.

The author, named “agnostic”, did a text search on articles from the journals indexed at JSTOR (you have to be at a university to use it, or you can pay yourself). He searched for the number of times certain faddish words like Marxism, deconstruction, post colonialism, hegemony, and the like were used in academic prose. He found that they all peaked—some in the late 1990s, others in the early 2000s—and are on the decline.

There are a number of caveats to his analysis, which he acknowledges. The biggest is that the counts are normalized by the number of articles published nor the number of authors publishing. Plus, he didn’t check for the growth of any new fad words,

Still, it is hard not to be hopeful that some academics in the humanities are regaining their minds.

Too many kids in school?

I had never been to that blog before, so I was delighted to find a discussion of Charles Murray’s contention that there are too many kids going to college in the post College is Still the Best Payoff. The analysis presented by the blogger isn’t fully convincing and I don’t think he countered Murray’s suggestion that the best in trades earn more than the average or below average with college degrees.

Murray is well known for arguing that too many kids with “low IQs” are going to college when they should not.

On this topic was a link to the blog The Inductivist, by a gentleman who might also be a statistician. Look for the post from Wednesday, August 27, 2008, wherein he states

Every semester I get a stack of confidential letters describing all sorts of diagnosed learning disorders, along with requests to make accommodations for these students. They need extra time on exams, permission to record lectures, etc.

Educators seem to be more comfortable recognizing limits if they are understood as disorders. We are told that these students are not dumb; they are smart, but just face extra obstacles.

Maybe people don’t like “dumb” because it sounds like forever, and labeling it as a disability enhances our compassion for the person, and it gives hope that eventually we’ll discover a cure. The medicalization of IQ might be the only palatable way to confront the reality.

I left this comment:

I was a visiting professor at Central Michigan U last fall, teaching statistics courses.

I got one of these letters in each of three classes of about 30 students. My impression, after talking with colleagues, was that this was a usual number.

If these letters truly represent learning disabilities among introductory statistics students, then that is an enormous rate.

So what is more likely: (1) The rate of learning disabilities in colleges students really is about 1 in 30, or (2) Learning disabilities are being over diagnosed so that kids don’t drop out of school (and that school loses tuition dollars).

JH, what do you say?

Henry Ford Anniversary

Today was an important anniversary date for Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit. Strangely, they didn’t post any information about it on their site.

New Prime

Again from A&LD, a link to a story about the discovery of a new prime number. Edson Smith at UCLA lead a group to find a new Mersenne prime, which is a prime of the form 2^P-1 where P itself is a prime. Smith’s new prime has P = 43,112,609, and the new prime itself has 13 million digits!

You have to be a real geek to get excited about news like this. But if you own at least one copy of The Book of Prime Number Records by Paulo Ribenboim, then today is a happy day.

Stuff Scientists Like

A new blog that is a take off on the popular Stuff White People Like. Not too many posts yet, and what’s there is telegraphic, but my favorite is At the Movies.

You know those scientific inaccuracies that the directors miss or ignore? Explosions in space and whatnot?

Well, scientists love to gripe about them. Loudly and repeatedly. Both while in the theater and thereafter.

Later they enjoy arguing about whether said inaccuracies fundamentally undermine the quality of the film. Eventually someone gets frustrated and storms off.

Anybody who has ever watched a movie/television with me will know just what he is talking about.

“Why can’t they just pay some guy like me fifty bucks to tell them that that’s impossible! Hell, there are hundreds of geeks out there that would edit scripts for free! This makes no sense! Let me tell you exactly why what there trying can’t be done…”

From Jerry Pournelle (What? You haven’t read Lucifer’s Hammer yet?) on how just about everybody making bets in the financial markets were wrong. This “everybody” includes very highly educated, extraordinarily well paid, respected, etc. etc., people.

One of my favorite lines, “Given incorrect models to work with, the computers continued to forecast profits right up to the crash.”

Another “As to what can be done, it may not matter. That is, it’s important what we do, but the chance that it will be done sanely and rationally is very small.” Of course, what we do will be pronounced as “the” thing to do. After all, the eventual plan, whatever it might be, will be made by experts.

Pournelle’s worry, as should be ours, is that the only thing that will happen is the creation of yet another big-government bureaucracy.

“Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people: those who work to further the actual goals of the organization, and those who work for the organization itself. Examples in education would be teachers who work and sacrifice to teach children, vs. union representative who work to protect any teacher including the most incompetent. The Iron Law states that in all cases, the second type of person will always gain control of the organization, and will always write the rules under which the organization functions.”

Ah, government bureaucracy. Is there anything experts at the government can’t fix? I know I can’t wait for the EPA to start regulating the “pollutant” CO₂. They ought to figure a way to tie mortgages to global warming. Then things will really get better.

Yes, a disconnected rant today. All I know is that I have been prudent and actually have saved to buy a house, did not try to purchase anything I couldn’t afford, and now I will be asked to pay for the mistakes of all the experts and fools who brought this on.

In any government bailout, the first thing I would require is that any executive of the firms that are being helped would lose all of their personal assets. Every penny. Then I’d sue the traders and stockholders to recover more. I’d do all that before I started taking money from innocent civilians.

As it is, the executives from Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers, etc., will all walk away very rich men. They will be rewarded.

And the government will continue to bloat.

Today, a topic that I mean to expand—greatly—in the coming weeks. That theme, as you might has guessed, is too many people are too certain about too many things. Nothing more than pointers to a couple of articles and some commentary for the moment.

Sad Day

Famed shark hunter Frank Mundus, who supplied the words to live by “A PhD don’t mean shit”, died this week. We earlier looked at Mundus’s philosophy in the essay “The BS octopus.” Mundus often proved that having letters after his name didn’t make him a better fisherman.

Don’t Go To College

On the same theme, Charles Murray’s new book on why most people don’t need to and shouldn’t go to college is out and making the blogs. Murray points out the obvious: not everybody is equipped to go to college, but most people are encouraged to do so. Many businesses want applicants to “have a degree” (same phrase we used in The BS Octopus). Meaning that the business doesn’t care what the applicant knows, since he can learn what he needs on the job, but they only want the letters after the name. Ridiculous.

Murray also does the simple math to show that most people would be better off skipping college altogether and heading for the trades: electrician (what I would have done), plumber, craftspeople of all types, farmers, and so on. Not everybody—and this is a shocker—graduates with distinction and makes the salaries at the top end of the range. Besides, Murray says, college should be saved for the people the brains to do it. Sound harsh and non-egalitarian? Well, not everybody has the body to be an athlete, nor the looks to be a model, nor the talent to become an actress or musician. We never have a hard time telling people the hard truth in those cases, but we’re squeamish about telling others that they might not be smart enough for school. It also goes smack in the fact of one of the guiding principles of the Enlightenment: education can cure all ills

High school guidance counsellors push too many people towards college. And colleges take them in. Generates big business, too. I speak from experience when I tell you that college is not for the majority. Since that is a true statement, but people desire college for the majority, this, in part, explains why college is not what it used to be, and why there are so many of them. Many modern-day colleges operate like expansion leagues in sports: too little talent to spread around, leading to watered down performance.

I taught too many kids who should not have been in my class. Sweet kids, mostly, big hearts. I never gave anybody a grade less than they deserved, but I admit to helping contribute to grade inflation. I recall two young men in one class. Both were part-time bouncers, both struggled, worked hard and came on time. They never missed a class or a quiz. Both were dumb as posts, but I loved them. They should have failed, but I weakened (I am a softy at heart) and I passed them. These guys were not isolated incidents, not for me, and not for many, many other professors I know.

Voting Complete

My study for guessing who will win the presidential election is now closed. It went well until one gentleman, who called himself a “godless liberal”, posted the survey on his blog. He called me a “right wing” blogger, and this somehow gave permission for his readers to go nuts and stuff the ballot box with all kinds of nonsense, despite my pleas that behave like good citizens. The good news is that I know who these “voters” are so I’ll be able to remove them from the answers.

Can’t, of course, post results on the actual survey until after the election. I might say some things about the ballot box stuffers before then.

I want to ask a favor of my regular readers and of those who occasionally come here to seek an alternate view. You can help me spread the word.

Yesterday, we discussed the sad plight of Dr X, a once eminent scientist who appeared in a British court with the express purpose to justify criminal behavior. His argument was that the crime committed was necessary to bring attention to, and to modify the consequences of, harmful global warming.

Let’s not talk about whether Dr X had the right to speak as he did (I would argue that he did; even if he represented his employer; others, obviously, take the opposite view). Let’s also not talk about whether Dr X’s climatological theory is sound (I would say parts are, parts aren’t; others religiously say all right or all wrong).

What I want to do is to build a list of what criminal behavior that supporters of Dr X would say is justifiable or acceptable with regard to anthropogenic global warming. The list of non-criminal behavior is obviously long and varied and not of interest here. This list will only include acts that are expressly forbidden by law (misdemeanors or felonies or their equivalents in other countries).

I do not want to be facetious nor do I want people who are not supporters of Dr X writing and saying “I think they would accept Y.” Let’s only use this list to keep track of criminal activities that are legitimately believed to be allowable or justifiable. Please send in real quotes and verifiable links. Let’s also keep this fair—no euphemisms.

So far, this is what we have:

Obviously, we can find lots of people on various message boards who would justify any behavior, so let’s try and keep this list only for people or organizations of authority (we can be somewhat loose by what that means).

Gav, Tam, what do you say?

If you haven’t already, please guess who will win the 2008 Presidential race. If you have voted, please do not do so again.

We’ve been running the poll for a couple of days now and have over 500 guesses!

It would be nice to see more diversity in the voting, so if you have friends or colleagues who think the opposite of you, send them this link:

• http://wmbriggs.com/president.php

I tried posting this on DemocraticUnderground.com, and I was able to initially, but after one of their members visited my main site, I was banned from making future posts. I was able to post on LiberalForum.org. If anybody knows of other similar places, either post the link or let me know.

Thanks again everybody!

When you have a chance, please log on to

• http://wmbriggs.com/president.php

and guess who will win the election this year.

This poll closes on 11:50 pm 14 September 2008. No guessing will take place after that.

I am testing the ability of people to guess elections at a point where the amount of information known about each candidate is roughly the same. The site is completely anonymous.

Please do not try and stuff the ballot box by voting more than once. I will not release any results until after the election is over. (I will also remove duplicate records.)

Please tell everybody you know, of every political background, liberal or conservative. Email them the link above. If you can, link to this page on other blogs so that we get as large a sample as possible.

Please, pretty please answer the 6 questions honestly.

Once the election is over, the analysis will appear at this web site.

Thank you very much!

What is the one thing that will anger a journalist faster than anything else?

Telling him that he is not important.

Last night Governor Sarah Palin said, “I am not going to Washington to seek [journalists’] good opinion.” No line could be more calculated to set off a flurry of fluster and flummery among the elite media. This means war.

She should have done what the other guy did and coddled reporters, sweet-talked them, gave them the precious gift of “access”.

Obama was more savvy. And lo, He gathered them—every major “non-biased” journalist in the country—and brought them on his victory tour of Europe. He gave them then and gives them now minute-by-minute access to his Grand Personage.

Obama’s master move, however, was to tell the media exactly what it wants to hear: “You guys are smart. You know what is right. Your ideas are important.”

See, what happens is something like this. A newly fledged reporter starts covering events. She writes down what has happened at some function so that others can read about it. The events and functions are important, so the reporter begins to feel that she is important. As time passes and more events are covered, our journalist begins to second guess the actions of those on whom she reports. She supports some of those actions, and disapproves of others. The temptation to interdict between the truly important people and her audience becomes overwhelming and she gives in. She begins to editorialize, to selectively include and exclude, and finally to advocate.

Because reporters cover weighty, influential, and serious matters they come to believe that they themselves are weighty, influential, and serious.

The fallacy is obvious.

The reason the media is now so apoplectic in its uncivilized, sexist, and ridiculous attacks on Governor Palin is because of just one thing. Petulance.

The main stream media is having a tantrum. They want to be told again that they are as important as they think they are. They are livid that anybody could not see this and they won’t stop screaming until they get their way.

Is it any wonder, then, that more and more people are switching them off and turning to alternatives?