A collection of fundamental posts in philosophy, probability & statistics, and global warming & environmentalism.

Subjects: Videos, Philosophy, Book reviews, Probability & Statistics (Asinine Uses), Probability Puzzles, Global Warming & The Environment, Mini Plays.

My Favorites

  • William M Briggs, Statistician To The Stars, Now A Thought Leader link
  • Damn Straight News: Manly Men More Likely To Be Conservative link
  • The True Meaning Of Statistical Models link


Videos

  • Mysticism of Randomness: Philosophy of Probability & Statistics Series link
  • Probability Is Logic: Philosophy of Probability & Statistics Series link
  • The Mathematics Of Santa Claus’ Present Delivery System link
  • Is There Free Will? A Conversation With Dr. Sam Hurtus link
  • Bill Whittle on the Love of Theory link

Philosophy & Culture

Fallacies

  • Genetic. He works for an oil company! link
  • Ad Hominem, My Sweet link
  • The Science-Is-Self-Correcting Fallacy link
  • Hypocrisy link
  • Wrong side of history link
  • The Apes Do It So It Is Fine For Us Fallacy link
  • The Epidemiologist Fallacy link
  • Mexican Hat link
  • One true religion link
  • The Somebody-Might-Get-Hurt! Fallacy link
  • The So’s-Your-Old-Man Fallacylink

Theology

  • The Summary Against Modern Thought, i.e. live blogging Summa Contra Gentiles link
  • Comprehensive List Of Catholic Dogmas Refuted By Science link
  • Richard Carrier’s Argument To Show God’s Existence Unlikely Is Invalid And Unsound link
  • What is faith? link
  • St Anselm and the ontological argument link
  • Swinburne’s P-Inductive and C-Inductive arguments (existence of God) link
  • Lawrence Krauss on nothing link
  • On The Probability God Exists link
  • Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Did not Exist link
  • On Intelligence & Religiosity link
  • The Epistemology Of Miracles: Fulton J. Sheen Edition I, II

Diversity & Equality

  • Diversity is the dumbest idea ever I, II, III, IV
  • The tolerance paradox link
  • Variant on a theme link
  • Life Is Not Fair I, II, III
  • Equality is impossible link
  • Equality definitions link
  • Logan’s Run Is A Progressive Utopia link
  • Diversity! link

Bioethics

  • Genetic Engineering To Create New Super Moral Race link
  • The Moral Case Against Designer Babies link
  • We Are All Eugenicists Now. New Test Identifies 3500 Genetic Faults In Fetuses link
  • Killing newborns link
  • Killing Children Legally In Belgium link
  • Evolving past evolution link
  • Nine-month babies racist? link
  • Mark Twain On The Dictatorship Of Health link
  • Dutch Doctors Strange New House Calls link
  • Abortion to create master race link
  • Decisions made Angelina Jolie Should Not Necessarily Be Yours link
  • Health Is Not A Goal link
  • The Return Of Eugenics link
  • Sex Selection and In Vitro Fertilization link
  • Anti-Human Leader says Every Woman Should Have Contraception link
  • Bioethicist Calls Unborn Innocent Aggressors link
  • Bio-engineering humans and climate link
  • Pill to eliminate racism link
  • People Who Believe In Heaven Commit More Crimes link
  • Are There Any Arguments Against Eugenics Left link
  • Ask A Scientific Ethicist I, I

Free Will

  • Unsorted I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII
  • A Conversation With Dr. Sam Hurtus (Video) link
  • Free Will Cannot Be An Illusion link
  • Disbelief In Free Will Causes Disbelief In Free Will link
  • Free Will The Result Of ‘Background Noise’? link

Sex

  • Same-sex “marriage” I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X
  • Let’s Find And Fire Those Who Support Same-Sex ‘Marriage’ link
  • E-Lynching The Politically Incorrect: Mozilla Edition link
  • Woman To Marry Fairground Ride. A New Sexual Orientation link
  • Coming Out Christian link
  • Bake your own damn cake link
  • Is Laverne Cox Still A Man? Or, The Coming Transgender Wars link

Morality & Ethics

  • Atheism And Its Problem Of Evil link
  • If You Disagree You Are Full Of Hate, You Bigot link
  • Dogmatism link
  • Animal rights entail animal responsibilities link
  • Is violence decreasing link
  • Health & responsibility link
  • More fat people link
  • Sandra Fluke Mows The Lawn. A Play In One Act link
  • Abortion link
  • Deciding morality by vote link
  • Academic Philosopher Finds New Way To Dehumanize People link
  • The Slow Death Of Perversion link
  • New Poll Says Forty Percent Don’t Believe In Evolution. So What. link
  • Herd Immunity And Christianity link
  • Prime Minister Kenny Abortion Bill Would Save One Life A Year link
  • Sam Harris Asks if Science Can Answer Moral Questions link
  • A New Row Over Pregnancy Caused by Rape link
  • Germany To Ban Sex With Animals link
  • Women Do Not Have A Right To Do Whatever They Want With Their Bodies link
  • Voting (And Wisdom Of The Crowds) I, II
  • Resolved: Companies Should NOT Be Forced To Fund Employees’ Birth Control link
  • Theories And Predictions: Sociology Version link
  • Animals Suing People, People Suing Animals: Lawyers Rejoice link

Miscellaneous

  • Malthus’ Proof That Welfare Leads To Increasing Need For Welfare link
  • From Paganism To Christianity To Deism To Malleism link
  • Educators Disease Reaching Epidemic Levels, Experts link
  • The Dismal Economics of Utopia: Lesson One link
  • 8 Great Philosophical Questions That We Will Never Solve Solved! link
  • Language and Truth I, II, III
  • The Consensus In Philosophy link
  • Ways of speaking about truth I, II
  • Scientific Truths Are Not Better Truths Than Just-Plain Truths link
  • The Imperfectibility of Politics. Voting And Unhappiness I
  • Give Children The Vote I
  • On Defeating The NSA: Privacy In A Time Of Government Overreach I

The University

  • University Professors Teach Too Much I, II, III, IV, V
  • It Is Time For A New (Old) Kind Of University link
  • Teaching Comes First. But Only If You Bring In Grants. And Publish link

Essential Book Reviews

Books

  • Edward Feser. The Last Superstition I, II, III, Interlude, IV, V VI, VII
  • Peter Kreeft. Summa Philosophica I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X
  • David Stove. What’s Wrong With Benevolence? link, Annotated Stove bibliography
  • Steven Goldberg. Fads and Fallacies in the Social SciencesI, II, III, IV
  • Jonah Goldberg. Liberal Fascism I, II, III
  • David Bentley Hart. The Experience of God: Being, Consciousness, Being I, II, III, IV
  • Charles Murray. Real Education link
  • Essential (Philosophical) Conservative Book List link
  • Michael Gazzaniga. Who’s In Charge? I, II
  • Our Brains Are Not Us. Review of Brainwashed link
  • My Genes Made Me Vote For Obama: Predisposed Reviewed link
  • Making Gay Okay, Robert R. Reilly, Reviewed. link

Probability & Statistics

Statistics philosophy

  • Machine Learning Big Data Deep Learning Data Mining Statistics Decision & Risk Analysis Probability Fuzzy Logic FAQ link
  • The Cult of the Parameter! link
  • I Was Wrong About Axioms: Day One Teaching link
  • Selling Fear Is A Risky Business Part I, II, III
  • Why You Should Care About The Philosophy Of Probability & Statistics link
  • The Applicability Of Experiments link
  • What Statistics Really Is I, Paradox digression, II, III
  • All Of Statistics I, II,III
  • Statistics Is Not Math link
  • Statistics 101 Class 0, I, II, III, IV, V, no VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI
  • What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One? I, II, III, IV,V, VI
  • Probability leakage link
  • What Does The Regression Equation Mean? Causality? link
  • Regression Isn’t What You Think link
  • Occam’s razor link
  • Bayes vs. Frequentism: The Lady Tasting Tea; or The Final Battle I, II, III, IV
  • Another reason to abandon p-values (another way to cheat) link
  • Correlation Implies Causation link
  • All Models Are Not Wrong I, II
  • True value of parameter? link
  • Frequentists Are Closet Bayesians: Confidence Interval Edition link
  • The difference between a confidence and credible interval link
  • On The Evidence From Experiments I, II, III, IV
  • Objective Bayes Vs. Logical Probability (Vs. Frequentism) link
  • Direct And Inverse Probability: The Bayesian Way link
  • Jumping The Infinity Shark: An Answer To Senn I, II, III, IV, V, VI
  • Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism) I, II, III, IV, V

Probability philosophy

  • Probability logic & induction I, II
  • Nine Counter-Arguments To Frequentism link
  • Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability link
  • Probabilities Aren’t Decisions link
  • There Is No Such Thing As Intrinsic Probability link
  • Failed Counterexamples To The Principle Of Indifference link
  • Physical Probability Doesn’t Exist link
  • What are the chances of that? link
  • The Humble Tautology And Probability link
  • Bayesian Probability Is Not Subjective (It Only Seems Like It Is) link
  • Symmetry Priors Logical Probability Infinities and Needless Paradoxes link
  • Intuitionist Math & Probability: Riemann Hypothesis Example link
  • What Is And What We Know Of It link
  • Why Falsifiability Is Alluring I, II
  • Most Probabilities Aren’t Quantifiable link
  • “Probably Fine” Isn’t A Number link
  • There Is No Such Thing As Unconditional Probability link
  • Russian Roulette And Certainty link
  • The Probability Of A Bottle Broken Into N Pieces When Struck By A Hammer link
  • It Makes No Sense To Say You’re More Likely To Die Of Bee Sting Than Shark Bite link

Statistics practice

  • Statistical Follies and Epidemiology video
  • Why Do Statisticians Answer Silly Questions That No One Ever Asks? link
  • What Regression Really Is I, II, III
  • The Biggest Error In Regression link
  • A Statistician’s Lament link
  • On Scientific Polls link
  • How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That link
  • What is a Dutch Book? link
  • The Great Bayesian Switch! link
  • How to fool yourself with Statistics I, II, III, IV
  • WEIRD people link
  • Johnson’s Revised Standards For Statistical Evidence link
  • Logical Probability Data Analysis Measurement Error Example I, II
  • The Alternative To P-Values link
  • Everything Wrong With P-Values Under One Roof link
  • How To Mislead With P-values: Logistic Regression Example link
  • What Regression Really Is link
  • Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value Die Die Die link
  • Regression To The Mean (And Performance Curses) Simply Explained link
  • What’s The Difference Between Polls And Models? link
  • A Peculiar Prevalence Of P Values Just Below .05 link
  • Drug Companies Tweaking Results To Produce Publishable P-values? link
  • How To Present Anything As Significant link
  • All Forecasts Predictions & Prophecies Are Contingent link
  • The Hot Hand: Statistical Fluke Or Genuine Article? link

Predictive Statistics

  • Explanation Vs Prediction link
  • There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection link
  • GPA Case Study I, II
  • Definitions link
  • What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not I, II, III, IV
  • Risk Analysis And Over Certainty link

Randomness

  • Randomized Trials Are Not Needed link
  • Randomness is a Matter of Information I, II, III, IV
  • What Random Means In Random Number Generation link
  • Never Say “Caused By Chance” link
  • On Truly Random Numbers link


Asinine uses of statistics

  • List of asinine papers link
  • Exposure To Fracking Reduces Low-Birth-Weight Babies link
  • Judgments About Fact And Fiction By Confused Researchers link
  • Casual Sex Is Good for You, Says New Biased Study link
  • Conservatives suffer from Dark Triad personalities link
  • Exposure to the American flag turns one into a Republican link
  • Exposure to 4th of July parade turns one into a Republican link
  • fMRIs can tell the difference between Christians and non-Christians? I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII
  • Newberg again link
  • Low IQ & Liberal Beliefs Linked To Poor Research? link
  • Weapons Make the Man Larger: New Scientific Growth Formula link
  • Brain Atrophy Responsible For Religious Belief? link
  • Do Conservatives Distrust Science More Than Liberals? link
  • Women Spot Snakes Faster Before Their Periods link
  • Wearing A White Coat Makes You More Careful link
  • Autism caused by highways link
  • Do Heat Waves Cause Birth Defects? link
  • Scientists: GOP Women More Feminine Than Dems link
  • Spanking Kids Causes Cancer. Also Asthma and Cardiac Disease link
  • Researchers Invent Exciting New Disease: Poverty Blindness link
  • Racism Eats Telomeres link
  • On The Role Of Genetics In Politics link
  • Do Dogs Poop In Alignment With The Earths Magnetic Field? link
  • Exposure to Fast Food Impedes Happiness link
  • Women With Large Posteriors Live Longer? link
  • Blinks As Lie Detectors link
  • Analysing Perceptions Of Cute Videos Of Threatened Species link
  • fMRI Discovers Freud Distribution Plushies Lurking In Brain link
  • Tweet Hate Map: Awful Really Awful Use Of Statistics link
  • Coal-Fired Power Plants Fuel Suicide—Or Maybe Sanguinity link
  • Scientists Discover Men Don’t Understand Women link
  • Poor Statistics Undermine The Reliability Of Neuroscience link
  • Thinking About Dying Or Just Saw Bad Art? Pop A Tylenol link
  • Science Can Tell If You’re A Racist Just By Looking At You link
  • Yet Another Study Proves Liberal-Conservative Brain Differences link
  • Statistics Proves Men And Women Are The Same link
  • Lightning May Cause Headaches Moon May Cause Domestic Intranquility link
  • Males Play More Sports Than Non-Males link
  • Political Neuroscience Shows Obama Voters Are Different Than Romney Voters link
  • GOP Women More Feminine Than Dems link
  • Stressed Men Prefer Chubby Chicks link
  • Personality Predicted By Pedal Extremity Wrappings? link
  • Believers Less Vindictive Than Godless Atheists: New Research link
  • Atheists More Motivated By Compassion Than The Faithful? link
  • Conservatives Produced By “Low Effort” Thinking link
  • Brain Atrophy Responsible For Religious Belief? link
  • Do Conservatives Distrust Science More Than Liberals? link
  • That Lefties-Drink-More-Than-Conservatives Study link
  • Scientists Discover Men Enjoy Looking At Women’s Breasts. link
  • Female-Named Hurricanes Deadlier Than Males. Implicit Sexism Kills! link
  • Can A Disgusting Smell Turn You Conservative And Against Gay “Marriage”? link

Firearms & Homicide

  • World firearms and homicide rates link
  • Mark Twain on firearms link
  • Black vs. White homicides link
  • Homicide Demographics link
  • Mass shootings link
  • Firearm Homicides Dropping link

Society

  • Presidential mandates link
  • Changing Attitudes On Suicide And Euthanasia (GSS) link
  • Support For Abortion by Reason (GSS) link
  • Wishcasting the 2012 Presidential Election link
  • How Long Do Popes Serve? link
  • Abortion Safety: Doctors V. Nurses & Physician Assistants & Midwives I, II
  • The Most Depressing Graphs: Per Capita Federal Spending Rises Alarmingly I, II
  • More Proof Music Is Growing Worse link
  • The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA link
  • Sexual Immorality, Low Birth Rates, And Religion link
  • Government Per Capita Spending: Up, Up, And Away! Or, Happy Tax Day! link

Probability Puzzles

What are the chances?

  • Monty Hall (All Probability is Conditional) link
  • The Probability Of Your Existence link
  • Sleeping Beauty link
  • St Petersburg Paradox link
  • Sorites Paradox link
  • Two-envelope Problem I, II
  • One Son Born Tuesday link
  • Prisoner’s Dilemma link
  • Monkeys Typing Shakespeare link
  • Newcomb’s paradox link
  • Measurement Error Of Colored Balls link
  • Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox link
  • Does 1+2+3+… Really Equal -1/12? link
  • Every Family Has Children Until They Have A Boy link

Global Warming & The Environment

Time series & Data Handling

  • The IPCC’s And McKitrick’s “Hiatus” Time Series Models I
  • There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection link
  • How to think about time series (temperature example), I, II, III, IV, V
  • The BEST project I, II, III
  • How To Cheat (Or Fool Yourself) With Time Series link
  • The Data Is The Data (Not The Model) link
  • Do not smooth times series you hockey puck! I, II, III
  • Homogenization of temperature series I, II, III, IV, V
  • Hurricanes have not increased: misuse of running means I, II
  • Proper statistical description of temperature (parameter-based versus predictive statistics) I, II
  • How To Properly Handle Proxy Time Series Reconstructions link
  • (Most) Everything Wrong With Time Series link
  • An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful link
  • Does Averaging Incorrect Data Give A Result That Is Less Incorrect? link
  • Time Series And Causality: Global Warming Example link

Evidence

  • We Know The Climate Is Warming Because It Isn’t link
  • On The Kaya Identity link
  • Do You Believe In Global Warming Because Of The Seriousness Of The Charges? link
  • Idiots calling for my arrest I, II, III, IV
  • A Citizen’s Guide to Global Warming Evidence link
  • Use And Abuses Of Decision Analysis link
  • What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men Prelude I, II
  • That 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance, I, II
  • What is and isn’t evidence of global warming, Overview, I, II, III, IV, V, VI
  • Anthropogenic Forcing Signals Not Significant? link
  • Climate Model Uncertainty I, II
  • Causation And Correlation link
  • Parliament The Met Office And Statistically Significant Temperature Change link
  • A Common Fallacy In Global Warming Arguments link
  • 1 Billion To Die By 2030: Global Warming’s Deadly Rampage! link
  • End Of The World Approaches—This Time Via A “State Shift” link
  • HANDY Not So Dandy: NASA-Funded Mathematical Model Of Doom link
  • Ivy League Statistician Debunks NASA-Funded ‘Socialism or Extinction’ Study link

The Epidemiologist Fallacy

  • The EPA Dust And The Ecological Fallacy link
  • Criticism of Jerrett et al. CARB PM2.5 And Mortality Report link

Fun

  • People’s Climate March: The Face Of True Belief link
  • Zombie attacks might increase due to global warming link
  • Global Warming Increases Disastrous Music link
  • Interview With A Climatologist link
  • Lewandowsky’s Faked Moon Landing link
  • Sharknadoes To Increase Due To Global Warming link
  • The Case of the Missing Global Warming: A 17th Precinct Mini Mystery link
  • Homeopathic Blog Post link
  • Global warming causes prostitution! link
  • IPCC Intensifies Search For Missing Global Warming link

Mini Plays & Stories

Oeuvre

  • Dinner with Atheists link
  • Ad Hominem, My Sweet link
  • Climate Change Summer Camp! link
  • All Men Are Mortal: A New, Award Eligible Mini Play link
  • Sandra Fluke Mows The Lawn link
  • A Priest And A Reporter Walk Into A Bar link
  • I Offend Thee! A Christmas Play link
  • Free Mumia! And Tunisia! link
  • Dances Without Feathers link