A collection of fundamental posts in philosophy, probability & statistics, and global warming & environmentalism.
Philosophy & Culture
Diversity: The Dumbest Idea Ever? I, II, III, IV Also, The Tolerance Paradox; Variant on a theme.
Theology: I (faith), II (St Anselm’s ontological argument), III (Krauss and nothing), Swinburne’s P-Inductive & C-Inductive Arguments (For God’s Existence).
Fallacies: Genetic, Hypocrisy
Bioethics: I (genetic engineering), II (genetics testing), III (crime and religion), IV (eugenics), V (9-month babies racist), VI (bio-engineering humans & climate), VII (pill to eliminate racism), VIII (killing newborns), IX (evolving past evolution), Mark Twain On The Dictatorship Of Health.
Life Isn’t Fair. I, II, III.
Equality: I (its impossibility); II (definitions), Who Is A Mother?, Logan’s Run: A Progressive Utopia
Free Will. I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII? A Conversation With Dr. Sam Hurtus (Video)
Gay Marriage. The Argument Against Same-Sex Marriage: I, II, III, IV; I, II, III, IV, V, VI (Regnerus).
Language & Truth: I, II, III.
Morality & Ethics: I (dogmatism), II (animal rights entail responsibilities), III (experts to decide for you?), IV (violence decreasing?), V (health & responsibility), VI (too many fat people), VII (more fat people), VIII (Sandra Fluke Mows The Lawn: A Play In One Act), IX (abortion), X (deciding morality by vote); Academic Philosopher Finds New Way To Dehumanize People; Calls For Beetroot Liberation.
Tolerance: I (tolerance paradox), II (I Offend Thee! A Christmas Play In One Act).
Economics: The Dismal Economics of Utopia: Lesson One.
8 Great Philosophical Questions That We’ll Never Solve—Update: Solved!
University Professors Teach Too Much: Part I, II, III, IV, V; It’s Time For A New (Old) Kind Of University.
Edward Feser’s The Last Superstition: I, II, III, Interlude, IV, V, VI, VII.
Peter Kreeft’s Summa Philosophica: I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII
David Stove’s: What’s Wrong With Benevolence?; Annotated bibliography.
Michael Gazzaniga’s Who’s In Charge?: I, II
Essential (Philosophical) Conservative Book List.
Machine Learning, Big Data, Deep Learning, Data Mining, Statistics, Decision & Risk Analysis, Probability, Fuzzy Logic FAQ
Why Do Statisticians Answer Silly Questions That No One Ever Asks?, A Statistician’s Lament
All Of Statistics (high level): Part I, II, III, Predictive statistics, Statistics Is Not Math
A vaguely complete theory of what I call “modern statistics” is given in the Ithaca Teaching Journal: 0, I, II, III, IV, V, no VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI.
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One? Part I, II, III, IV, V, VI. Probability leakage, What Does The Regression Equation Mean? Causality?
What’s The Difference Between A Confidence Interval And A Credible Interval?, True value of parameter?; Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics
Bayesian Probability Is Not Subjective (It Only Seems Like It Is)
On Scientific Polls; How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That.
What is a Dutch Book?
Bayes vs. Frequentism: The Lady Tasting Tea; or, The Final Battle. Part I, II, III, IV; Also, Symmetry, Priors, Logical Probability, Infinities, and Needless Paradoxes; The Great Bayesian Switch!
How to fool yourself with Statistics I, II, III, IV, WEIRD people; Correlation Implies Causation
What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: I, II, III, IV
Asinine uses of statistics: List of asinine papers; Conservatives suffer from Dark Triad personalities, exposure to the American flag turns one into a Republican, exposure to 4th of July parade turns one into a Republican; fMRIs can tell the difference between Christians and non-Christians I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII. Newberg again; Low IQ & Liberal Beliefs Linked To Poor Research?; Weapons Make the Man Larger: New Scientific Growth Formula; Brain Atrophy Responsible For Religious Belief?, Do Conservatives Distrust Science More Than Liberals?, Women Spot Snakes Faster Before Their Periods, Wearing A Doctor’s Coat Makes You More Careful, Autism caused by highways; Spanking Kids Causes Cancer. Also, Asthma and Cardiac Disease; Scientists: GOP Women More Feminine Than Dems, Do Heat Waves Cause Birth Defects?, Spanking Kids Causes Cancer.
Probability Logic, Induction: I, II, The Humble Tautology And Probability, All Models Are Not Wrong
Randomness is a Matter of Information: why frequentism is wrong I, II, III, IV
Randomized Trials Are Not Needed
Bayesian Predictive Statistics: GPA Case Study, I, II
Inuitionist Math & Probability: Riemann Hypothesis Example
Another Reason To Abandon P-values; Or Another Way To Cheat
Firearms and homicide: World rates, Mark Twain, Black vs. White, Demographics, Overall and “assault” weapons ban, Mass shootings.
Social studies: Presidential mandates, Changing Attitudes On Suicide And Euthanasia (GSS), Support For Abortion by Reason (GSS), Wishcasting the 2012 Presidential Election, How Long Do Popes Serve?
Monty Hall (All Probability is Conditional)
St Petersburg Paradox, Sorites Paradox.
Two-envelope Problem I, II
One Son Born Tuesday
Monkeys Typing Shakespeare
Measurement Error Of Colored Balls
Global Warming & The Environment
The BEST project: I (what it means), II (methods), III (politics).
How to think about time series (temperature example). Part I, II, III, IV, V.
What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Prelude, I, II. 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance: I, II
A Citizen’s Guide to Global Warming Evidence, Use And Abuses Of Decision Analysis: Global Warming Example, The Data Is The Data, Not The Model
Bad Astronomer Does Bad Statistics: That Wall Street Journal Editorial
How To Cheat, Or Fool Yourself, With Time Series: Climate Example, Anthropogenic Forcing Signals Not Significant?
What is—and what isn’t—evidence of global warming, Overview, I, II, III, IV, V, VI
The EPA, Dust, And The Ecological Fallacy Example: Criticism of Jerrett et al. CARB PM2.5 And Mortality Report
Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck! I, II, III
Climate Model Uncertainty: I, II
Homogenization of temperature series I, II, III, IV, V
Hurricanes have not increased: misuse of running means I, II
Proper statistical description of temperature (parameter-based versus predictive statistics): I, II.
Lewandowsky’s Faked Moon Landing
Fun: Zombie attacks might increase due to global warming, study shows, Global Warming Increases Disastrous Music: A Scientific Paper, Interview With A Climatologist
A Priest And A Reporter Walk Into A Bar
Dinner with Atheists
Sandra Fluke Mows The Lawn
I Offend Thee! A Christmas Play
Free Mumia! And Tunisia!
Dances Without Feathers