Yours truly picked Mitt Romney as president. A wishcast not a forecast! A retroactive wishcast for many, I’m thinking, as the next four years progress. I wasn’t the only one to make this mistake: equinox, POUNCER, bob, JJD, obiwankenobi, JakeTX, Tom Bri, John M, Schatzenberge, Joy, Doug M, Steve N., and Robert all joined me in pegging Romney.
Obama took it, as those recovering from New Year’s hangovers will remember. Not “convincingly” as faride hoped and mct guessed, but barely, by just a few percentage points. The Democrats held the Senate and the Republicans the House, meaning the country remains split, not that you’d read that in the press, which assumes any victory, however meager, is a “mandate.”
Others who got Obama right: JH, DAV, WjB, Chronus, jon shively, Luis Dias, Richard Hill, Will, reid, 49erDweet, Vinny Burgoo, Ernesto, feroze daud, Tom M, Rosco, GregO, Ken, David, and Rod picked the re-immaculation of The One.
Katie and sera said Obama would ditch Joe “Wakka Wakka” Biden and promote Hillary as running mate.
Rich had the best guess on who’d be chief executive, “The President of the United States will be a polar bear called Leslie who is currently scavenging in bins in Anchorage.” Not best in the sense of accuracy, but as that to be desired.
commieBob was on the money when he said many who voted last time wouldn’t this election. His “Some members of the Tea Party and the Occupy Movement find common cause and work to take the Republic back from the corruption in which it is mired” was wildly off the mark.
There were a number of sports predictions (something about a team called “Heat”), but none about baseball, the only sport Yours Truly follows. I can only report the sad news the Detroit Tigers did not win the World Series.
equinox was right that the DJIA never would crack 15,000; nor would the S&P bust 1500. POUNCER was right the EURO wouldn’t crap out. Most people were appropriately gloomy about the economic conditions, picking low GDP growth, continued misery and mopery.
Gary wasn’t too far off with his lone prediction, “Less than fifty percent of the legitimate predictions made here will be judged as correct.” This wasn’t good enough to take the prize. Schatzenberge showed us the necessity of using skill as a measure of goodness with his always-right “Vladimir Putin will be shirtless in at least one photo op” and “E. Coli outbreak at Taco Bell.”
Tom Bri was way off the mark when he guessed, “Under the weight of Fast and Furious, Eric Holder will leave office, to spend more time with his family.” Not only did Holder not resign, word is he’s sticking around for Obama’s second term.
Honorary mention to Greg Cavanagh who had the cleverest forecast, “England will flip over and sink beneath the sea due to the torque exerted by all the wind mills above.” This might have even happened, for all we know.
GregO was partly right when he said, “News media (print, TV) will continue to downplay CAGW. Eventually a new panic will be found to replace CAGW but not next year.” Still time to make guesses about what the next panic will be. For a few days at the end of 2012 it looked like guns, but that didn’t last. Ideas? Register them in the other thread. Rosco also guessed the media would tired of AGW.
Uncle Mike had the most intriguing prediction: “World War III will start, in Europe as usual, although it will not be recognized as such until ’13 or ’14.” We’ll have to leave it to him to see what that start was. Greek riots? France and Germany teaming up against Russia? JakeTX thought Iran would have attacked Israel by now. JJD was on board, having Iran attacking somebody.
John Morris—quite sadly—blew it when he prognosticated Obamacare would be struck down by Supreme Court.
Vinny Burgoo will have to tell use whether Bo Derek indeed visited Ecuador. Luis Dias guessed Sakrozy would win his election, which didn’t happen, but he was right to say Putin would find a way to stay in office.
Nobody batted 1.000, but some did better than others. There was one gentleman who stood out from the pack, making the most correct, interesting and difficult predictions. This was Chronus. He got Obama right, guessed correctly Gov. Christie would not be Republican VP, saw that the Syrian regime would hold through 2012, and said that “Snarky stories poo-pooing the End of the World predictions will dominate the December news cycle. Knowing how often the media is wrong, canned food sales increase 25% over 2010 levels.”
His final, and best prognostication, was, through all thus tumult, “Still, Earth abides.”