William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

Predictions 2014—Register Yours Today!

What will happen in the world in 2014? You have until 10 January to tell us in the comments below.

Let’s hope we’re more accurate than we were last year, where the hit rate was pretty low.

If you want to be a big cheese in the prediction game you not only have to be accurate, but you must pick events which are difficult to foretell. It’s no use saying, “MSNBC will discover a racist conspiracy in people who call for less government intrusion” or “The New York Times will print a front-page story quoting an activist who is ‘outraged’.” Anybody could guess these.

Instead try something like, “Barack Obama will be revealed to be an inter-dimensional space alien come to prepare the earth for assimilation.” Risky. But if it turns out to be true, think of the fame and glory!

Please number your predictions, which makes it easy on me when I check them next year.

Here are mine.

(1) Barack Obama will be revealed to be an inter-dimensional space alien come to prepare the earth for assimilation.

(2) Gavin Schmidt of Real Climate will realize his life’s work (making good predictions) is in ruins, that the state of climate science is a shambles. He will publicly recant and join Exxon as a staff consultant.

(3) Yours Truly will go out expecting to have a nice quiet meal but will be assaulted by sounds in quality and volume resembling construction noises produced by faulty equipment which will by the host be called “music.” At least one person will say, “I like this song” proving our great national slide into decadence will continue unabated, and perhaps even accelerated, in 2014.

Okay, now the real ones. Wait. Number three is real.

(1) Big earthquake in California, which will be ruinous; however, the blamestorm which follows will be worse. Earthquakes? In California? Who knew? The political party is power will blame the party out of power.

(2) Transgenderism on the rise. There will be at least one memorable media flap where some dinosaur announces words to the effect, “A man who likes to wear a dress and who has had his pertinents sliced off by a med-school-diploma-wielding sadist is not a woman.” This prehistoric moralist will be made to suffer the loss of a job, money, prestige or something equally important when he refuses to call a specific man pretending to be a woman “she.” A transgender “marriage” will take place.

(3) The Democrats will retain the Senate, the Republicans the House. This is because may provisions of Obamacare will be delayed until after the election, the sneaky so-and-sos.

(4) China and Japan will come to blows (at least one death) over disputed territories in the Pacific and South China Seas. “Tensions will rise”, but both sides will calm themselves afterwards. No full-scale war this year.

(5) No terrorist attacks anywhere near the winter Olympics in Russia. Putin will crush the growing revolt quietly but violently, and within the next three weeks.

(6) The government will get caught using information on an individual or group which it could have only come by immorally or unconstitutionally, as for instance via the NSA or TSA, but the majority of citizens won’t care. What about the children!

Update (7) Now that we have elected our first avowedly socialist mayor, we will see an increase in crime this (and the next four) year. Defined as an increase in rates over the majority of major tracked crimes (murder, theft, rape, etc.).

41 Comments

  1. Here you go my predictions:

    (1) There will be another terorist attack in the US (this is not a bold prediction, unfortunately);

    (2) The war in Syria will bring Western countries to the battlefield. 2014 will finish still in war in Syria;

    (3) France will face a economic crisis bringing all the EU into chaos;

    (4) I agree with you: Democrats will retain the Senate;

    (5) Catholic Church will face chaos with Pope Francis, beacuse his way of governing (but the Holy Spirit comes, as always, let’s pray);

    (6) Venezuela will face civil war;

    (7) Fidel Castro will die;

    (8) There will be economic crisis in China;

    (9) Brazil will not win the soccer world cup;

    (10) Obama will be so terrible that MSNBC will call him cracker.

    Best regards,

    Happy New Year.

    Pedro Erik

  2. 2014 will be the year of the insurrection and violence (oh, wait, that sounds like a 2013 redux):

    1. Jordan will become 2013’s Syria, followed by Saudi Arabia
    2. Violence on Chechnya as the independence movement grows
    3. Egypt will become a true military dictatorship after another mass uprising
    4. Catalonia will vote for independence, touching off violence in Spain that will spill over into France — keeping in mind that the southern regions of France are not necessarily French, so to speak
    5. India, Pakistan, and China will once again fight over land no one really wants
    6. China and US will begin a cold war of sorts over islands that Japan and China claim but no one really wants
    7. Russia will look externally for war, so as to justify a clamping down on internal dissent, but only after the Olympics
    8. The NSA will state that it will continue to spy on US citizens without judicial warrant and the greater mass of the youth will not care — since they already expose everything via the internet
    9. The Republidemocrats will hold the House against the Demorepublicans
    10. Krugman will hack the Fed and add another zero to monthly QE program
    11. The extremely cold winter of 2014 will prove with finality that man is irrevocably warming the atmosphere
    12. Chief Justice Roberts will finally receive the newly unveiled Nobel Memorial Prize in Logic for proving that a thing can be and not be at the same time

  3. 1-Blacks mass killing of whites in South Africa
    1-Jahadest increase the number of Christians they are killing world wide
    3-Assad wins his way in Syria
    3-Iran makes an A-bomb
    5-Inflation in the US picks up to above 5%
    6The Repubs take the Senate and increases their seats in the House with a lot of TEA Parties members
    7-And impeach Obama
    8-Tempure hiatus/pause goes away with a drop in the average.

  4. 1. Israel will launch an initially successful preemptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but will be universally condemned by the international community, face sanctions, etc.

    2. Polygamy will make significant legal strides in the U.S.

    3. A cabinet level or higher member of the Obama Administration will resign in a cloud of controversy.

    4. The Yankees will return to the play-offs.

    5. Way more people will die as a result of AIDS in the U.S. than will be killed with guns by legal gun owners…as usual.

    6. China will embarrass the U.S. militarily over Taiwan.

    7. CNN will fire Piers Morgan.

    8. Baldness will finally be cured.

    9. The Obama’s will separate.

    10. Same-sex marriage will make no further gains at the state level.

  5. 1. Israel will launch a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    2. The stock market will crash as inflation cranks-up reminding those of us who remember, the Carter stagflation.

    3. China will finally withdraw its backing of North Korea, possibly assisting in the deposing of Kim Jong Un.

    4. Despite the serial incompetence shown by the GOP in national elections, they will retake Senate and maintain or increase their edge in the House.

    5. Despite strenuous efforts by the Administration, the Keystone Pipeline will be build.

    6. Another recession will begin aided by the EPA’s draconian regulations and ObamaCare.

    7. Germany will withdraw from the EU, tired of having to bail-out the rest of the EU constantly.

    8. A cold and snowy year will result in global warming hysteria finally fizzling out, only to be replaced by “species diversity” and “ocean acidification” with zealots making even more outrageous claims that “it’s worse than we thought.”

    9. There will be another major Administration political scandal. The President will say he did know about it but will promise to get to the bottom of it.

    10. NYC Mayor, avowed Socialist DeBlasio, will institute policies that will result in an exodus of the successful and well-to-do from the city, a drastic spike in crime, the collapse of the real estate market, and credit agencies will reevaluate or even downgrade NYC debt. Anyone remember Mayor David Dinkins?

  6. Briggs, I posted twice but do not see my predictions.

  7. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXYWDtXbBB0

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Msp2WlgoIUs

    Since several truly talented singers sing her songs better than she does, Miley Cyrus will fade to just a painful memory in 2014.

    Happy New Year all!

  8. 1) US stocks swoon early, recover to 10% up on Dow 12% up on NASD.
    2) I lose 6 lbs (From 194 lbs).
    3) My wife continues to spend willy-nilly.
    4) Not that I care but the Redskins win 5.
    5) Obama does something stupid, loses the Senate, then argues for reinstating the filibuster (as he is about to be impeached).

  9. 1) England will leave the EU when it is ordered by the EU to alter their roads to drive on the right hand side.

    2) AGW fundamentalists will propose a new method of calculating average temperatures to replace the current method of the midpoint between daily maximum and minimum extremes.

    3) Same sex divorce court cases with children from surrogate births will show up flaws in same sex marriage legislation.

    4) The UN via the IPCC will declare that all patents for sustainable perpetual motion are international public domain.

    5) Branding will supplant body piercing for teenagers in affluent countries.

    6) Jousting will be included as an Olympic sport.

  10. Oh, and I would, if allowed, add one more:

    9- The world is not going to end.

  11. I will round this out with number 10:

    10- The knockout game will grow into full fledged race riots is several large cities, but will not spread into the country.

  12. Okay, here goes:

    1:) Russia will side with China against Japanese interests. They are still stinging with indignation by their defeat by Japan in 1905, just like China remembers the rape of Nanjing.

    2.) It will become more and more obvious that North Korea will be coddled by China to help intimidate Japan and South Korea will do everything it can to make some kind of peace with North Korea because they can see the handwriting on the wall and besides that they will think that there has to be a buck or two in the deal for them. Russia will look the other way.

    3.) Iran will continue with its nuclear program and playing rope-a-dope with the West. Israel will become very jittery but will not take peremptory action. Netanyahu will be curtailed by a populace that does not want to be the aggressor. There will be much internal dissent in Israel. The Palestinians are waiting for their time but it won’t be in 2014.

    4.) The rest of the Middle East will continue to boil but at a lower level as the people begin to realize that that they must unite against the enemy whom they will begin to realize more and more are the original colonial powers of Europe.

    5.) There will be much turmoil in Europe as people start to rebel against wage stagnation, especially in Germany.

    6.) There will be another big scandal in the Catholic Church as Pope Francis uncovers a rats nest of corruption and intrigue. Regular Catholic laity will back the Pope in a big way. Many bishops and cardinals will take the opposite side and it will be a political battle that make the U.S. Congress look like amateurs. The Pope will win.

    7.) The U.S. influence in the World affairs will diminish remarkably as the Democrats and the Republicans continue to duke it out and demonstrate that America is very divided and they all know what Abraham Lincoln said about that.

    8.) Africa will be the place for some really surprising positive economic and political developments despite racial and tribal turmoil.

    9.) Mexico and Brazil will continue making steady economic and social progress.

    10.) The Chicago Cubs will win both the pennant and the World Series.

  13. 1) More than 50% of all 2014 predictions will fail.

  14. 1. In 2014, at least one country or state will launch or adopt Bitcoin or similar as legal tender.

  15. 1) Republicans will take both House and Senate. Inevitable. Slim margin but a reflection of a pain Obamacare will inflict on the people during the year and the reflection of two political groups – one is active because of ideology, another (right) because of perceived existential issues. Your prediction will fail because of surprising skew of people who actually get out and vote.
    2) Israel will bomb Iran. Yet another existential issue. Israel can’t trust the World powers any more, Israel has capability, they’ll exercise it. Only question – will they use nuclear weapons in the process?
    3) China will suffer economic downturn. As any centrally controlled economy they couldn’t have resisted to tamper with natural slowdown this year. As a result, natural forces of free market will hit them back with immense reaction even China can’t fight back this year.Chinese yearly growth less than 1% if even positive (I think if truly negative, they’ll have power to fake it as minimal positive growth).
    4) Turkey will suffer great economic and domestic turmoil. Unlikely but possible – separation of Kurdistan with great impact on Iran (bombed by Israel) and Iraq. Crash of Turkish economy and political system is inevitable.
    5) Assad as a winner in the Middle East. Egypt domestic turmoil, Iran international turmoil, Turkey catastrophe, Israel pariah internationally, Iraq splintered and lawless, Jordan irrelevant, Saudi Arabia juggling ruling royalty existence, small arab states shaking in their boots… Assad backed by Russia, unopposed by USA – a winner.
    6) China again – to mask economic crash -> war. Will it be Philippines, Japan or both? After Israeli strike on Iran, China will militarily take over at lest some if not all disputed territories in the sea. Japan will be the only one to fight back, Obama will undermine them and they’ll to give up. Chinese expansion.
    7) We will be hit by more undenying counter-evidence against AGW. Sun will be quiet. Temperatures will drop. Crack in ideology of AGW will develop for the masses. Ideologs will look stupid but won’t give up.
    8) Militant Islam will make Africa burn. Particularly Central, West and East Africa. South will be spared. North is already a mess.

  16. 1- Syrian war will end with Assad tossed aside while regime remaining intact
    2-There will be no terrorist attack by Al-Queda on US soil
    3-2014 GDP will be highest in a decade
    4-Montreal Canadians will win the Stanley cup (ok, I don’t really believe this one, but it would be nice…)

  17. If de Blasio is anything like Obama, he’ll replace stop-and-frisk with drone strikes.

  18. Milton Hathaway

    1 January 2014 at 11:34 pm

    1) A US constitutional convention will be formally scheduled, initiated by the states through a ‘strange bedfellows’ coalition of Tea Party activists and Obama third-termers.

    2) MegaMinus (translation?), the Chinese-designed magnesium-backed digital currency, will achieve critical mass and become the defacto standard, overtaking all other digital currencies combined before the end of the year.

    3) A “nuclear incident” will occur in Iran in late summer or early fall. The nature of the incident will be said by some countries to conclusively prove that Iran possesses weapons-grade nuclear material, while Iran and it’s allies will claim the incident was engineered by Israel.

    4) Miley Cyrus will get pregnant. (Whoever she is.)

  19. 1-) The democrat will keep the Senate and gain the house.
    2-) After a rocky start Obamacare will gain in popularity by June. And just like the climate alarmist were proven wrong the obamacare alarmist will be proven wrong.

    3-) A long term prediction. The US will face another civil war within the next 60 years

  20. “Now that we have elected our first avowedly socialist mayor, we will see an increase in crime this (and the next four) year.”

    Huh? Milwaukee, WI had openly socialist mayors (as in socialist party, not democrat) decades ago.

  21. 1) E. Snowden will suffer greatly for his crimes (beyond his self-exile) (even if granted “protection”).
    2) The NSA will not suffer at all for theirs.

  22. I predict a federal court case involving polygamy of one sort or another.

  23. As for visions of what the future holds, some quotes are in order:

    “That’s not to say I haven’t had my visionary moments. I’ve taken acid seventy… five, seventy-six times.” Derek Smalls (bassist for the once-fictional-but-since-come-to-life-in-reality band “Spinal Tap”).

    “I wonder that a soothsayer doesn’t laugh whenever he sees another soothsayer.” Marcus Tullius Cicero, Roman Statesman & orator.

  24. Charles Boncelet

    2 January 2014 at 12:19 pm

    1. 2014 will be officially regarded as the “Year of the Death of the Adverb”. The use of “ly” words has been on the decline for years, but 2014 politicians, educators, and “experts” will officially endorse “ly-less” English in schools and standardized tests.

    2. Since we insist on repeating every dumb idea from the 1970’s, disco will make a comeback. Spinning disco balls will reappear in clubs and music will continue its dumbing down. Village People tribute bands will pop up everywhere. 1970’s disco fashion will become popular (please, no velour tuxedos, but halter tops are ok.)

  25. 1) Dennis Rodman will be revealed to be a secret CIA agent.

    2) A new low in “reality” television will be set (or are we at the bottom yet)?

    3) Another study will be released, showing how the brains of the unenlightened are much less evolved than the brains of progressives.

    4) At least five more municipal bankruptcies.

    5) The Federal Reserve finally decides to “taper”. Just Kidding. Printing to infinity.

    6) As the Euro crisis continues, independence movements in Europe gain strength – Scotland votes to leave the UK, other movements may force a vote – Catalan, Venice. Belgium finally splits in half.

    7) Turkey sees a resurgence of secularism as the depth of corruption of the Erdogan is brought to light. The AK party collapses (for the time being).

  26. 1) Pope Francis will retire, saying “What is wrong with you people?”
    2) After resignation, Pope Benedict will signal his readiness for a comeback with his famous “I haven’t been very busy lately” speech.
    3) However, the Cardinals, after being advised by the National Catholic Reporter that the next Pope must be more “relevant” will turn to Miley Cyrus.
    4) Miley Cyrus will take the name “Pope Ignatz I” out of sheer confusion.
    5) She will threaten to twerk again if any more legislatures pass gay marriage laws.
    6) No more such laws are passed.

  27. Oh and #11 – Mets and Jets make World Series and Super Bowl, respectively. OK, I realize that this is more in line with being wishful thinking than an actual prediction.

  28. 1. Bitcoin will collapse, either through the natural doom of all pyramid schemes, or (more hilariously) due to some kind of technical vulnerability being exploited by hackers. Nerds will lose billions. Many will nevertheless hop onto the bandwagon of the next sham internet currency to come along.

    2. Obamacare will be rendered toothless due to a repeal of the individual and employer mandates. Barack Obama will (rhetorically) place himself at the forefront of the battle against Obamacare. After it is defeated at his urging, he will declare Obamacare to be more victorious than ever.

    3. Bing will begin to get more search traffic than Google.

    4. Hillary Clinton will announce the start of her Presidential campaign before 2015 dawns.

    5. Kathleen Sebelius will resign and/or be killed by a falling house. The position of HHS secretary will remain open for at least six months or until the end of 2014.

    6. The US military will fire all its Catholic chaplains and replace them with a mix of non-denominational and new-age ministers.

    7. Miley Cyrus will have a religious experience and turn her life around. The media will suddenly lose interest in talking about her.

    8. Long hillbilly beards will become increasingly prevalent among 20-somethings due to some TV show they say everybody’s watching.

    9. Kim Jong Un will get the wind taken out of his sails, somehow.

    10. Guam will capsize.

  29. an addition to my others –

    7) “Quite simply” will replace “basically” as the fashionable meaningless adverb.

  30. (1) Bitcoin will end the year above $6000/BTC as reported by Mt. Gox.

    That is the only objectively measurable one. The rest of my predictions are too arcane.

  31. I predict that Briggs will own up to his selective reasoning.

  32. Briggs

    2 January 2014 at 8:19 pm

    All reasoning is selective, Joshua, old son.

  33. 1) A cyber attack will cause nation wide chaos in a major nation (maybe America).

    2) China moves to invade Taiwan for natural resources.

    3) Another intelligence leak for America.

    4) Russia and China will continue to push for regulations on cyber intelligence gathering (NSA) and will make headway at the UN. They will promptly fail to follow any and all regulations while America does.

    5) New steps towards moving the world reserve currency to Asia will happen. USD will drop in value and America’s import based economy will continue to tumble due to decreased purchasing power.

    6) The suicide rate in the Western world and Japan will continue to climb due to lack of job opportunities and purpose in life.

    7) Miley Cyrus will become a born again Christian.

    8) Justin Bieber will marry Miley Cyrus in an Orthodox Catholic wedding. DNA testing will be done on their children which will then reveal that Bieber and Cyrus are actually clones with their genders switched.

    9) Kim Kardashian will become obese and drop off the headlines. She will be replaced by another pointless idiot.

  34. 1) The USA will try to sell Detroit to Canada, but the deal will fall through when the Canadians demand compensation in gold bullion.

    2) A black market in incandescent bulbs will rival that of alcohol prohibition. Underground read-easies will be all the rage.

    3) GE will discover that the profit margin in CF-B is not what they thought it would be and they declare bankruptcy.

    4) Children will be encouraged to turn in their parents if they use incandescent bulbs in the house.

    5) Briggs will be caught tapping his toe to a Beatles’ song while wearing stone washed jeans and a tank top.

    6) Turkey will be the next middle eastern country to descend into chaos.

    7) The next president of the USA will be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize with the name to be added later, after the election of 2016. Paul Krugman will share this prize for his warning of an imminent space alien invasion.

    8) The USA will revalue the currency and finally switch to dollar coins which will be called Starbucks.

    9) A chair of Bayesian statistics will be created for Briggs at an ivy league university, but he will forget his old friends and cease blogging.

    10) It will be seen that even joke predictions have as much chance (that word again) of being correct as serious ones.

  35. 1. In at least one preliminary quarterly report the economy will suffer a negative GDP growth. The government will go to extraordinary lengths to revise the data in the final report.

    2. A new alarm will be raised about the potential of a Yellowstone Super Volcano. USA Today will have a front page map showing the possible zones of destruction.

    3. The Election will result in a 50-50 split Senate, and Joe Biden will find he can reap priceless press coverage because of his tie breaking vote. At least one important one will go against Obama.

    4. A late season blizzard will be evidence to climate scientists that Global Warming is accelerating even faster than they had imagined. Predicted consequences will be more devastating and the need for immediate action will be more urgent.

    5. Obama’s approval rating will rise to just under 45% then slide below 40% and stay there.

  36. To Daniel D: It’s not a country or a state, but it’s a start:

    http://nypost.com/2014/01/04/real-estate-broker-we-accept-bitcoin/

  37. 1) There will be an announcement that Pope Francis will visit the United States. This prediction has the virtue of being highly possible in the future, I think.

    (2) The debt to GDP ratio will CONTINUE to decline slowly.

    Everyone will get older. This is neither perdition nor a complaint. Just a mental note.

    I believe that “everything will be okay in the end.”

  38. 1. “Amazing” will be the new “awesome”.
    2. After blatant military aggression by China in the Pacific in which US forces are either humiliated or conspicuously absent, US shoppers in large numbers will start asking for non-Chinese products in stores. Talking heads in the US media will tut-tut about this as A Poor Idea.
    3. Iran will conduct a nuclear test shot in North Korea, but Miley Cyrus will be bigger news.
    4. A China-backed military coup d’etat in North Korea will roast the piglet without relieving international tensions. Rodman’s basketball exhibition will not happen.
    5. USA will continue its slide towards a totalitarian police state. NSA will get a Get Out of Jail Free card. Bullying and harassment at US border crossings will worsen. Intrusive, bullying security theatre at airports and other transportation points will worsen markedly.
    6. USA’s slide towards financial catastrophe will continue with drastic increases in national debt and crazy spending on entitlements, plus more federal attempts at wealth transfer and quack “climate” control regulations.
    7. Republicrats will ensure that Congress is more of a disgusting social tumor than part of the government balance of powers. There will be no effective control of Obama’s spending or blockage of his socialist and statist adventures.
    8. Obamacare will not be repealed, even though the fiasco will worsen to a dizzying extent during 2014. The web site will continue to be an embarrassing dysfunctional mess, but there will be positive stories about how it is improving and moving towards fulfilling its quotas.
    9. Real unemployment and poverty will be bad and worsen, but the official figures will be false.
    10. Earnest news articles and editorials in major US media will unintentionally plagiarize official propaganda portrayed in Orwell’s “1984” and “Animal Farm”.
    11. There will be lots of entertaining and educational articles posted on this blog — thanks, Matt — and also quite a few on scholastic philosophy and dead horses of philosophical logic. Hey, it’s Matt’s blog. He can do with it as he likes.

  39. My predictions for 2014

    1. The Affordable Care Act will be implemented despite the fact that is not more affordable for the majority of families despite many promises made by HHS
    2. There will be massive protests by people insured under the old insurance plans which will produce no action by congress
    3. Massive quantities of money will be given to insurance companies to keep them from going bankrupt before the election in November.
    4. No one will figure how to extricate the nation from the damage to the economy being produced by the ACA.
    5. There will be no increase in global warming in 2014, but only in spending to promote a carbon tax.
    Jon Shively

  40. My predictions:
    1. Obama will become a recluse, after repeated failures in his foreign policy and Obamacare. He will hide out in the White House or wherever Michelle isn’t. Joe Biden will become the face of the administration.
    2. The Keystone Pipeline will be approved.
    3. The “Atlas Shrugged” behaviour of the Republicans will continue in the hopes that the Democrats will implode. (Rather than taking them on directly, which would probably result in something similar to Waterloo.)
    4. A major injury or death in football will result in endless congressional hearings and media debates on whether or not football is un-American. There will be talk of ending the game, possible delay of the season’s start, though economic reality will prevail and the game will go on, in a “less violent” fashion.
    5. Language will become rather useless as people continue to call “cold” “warming”, “lies” “truth”, etc. The call for not bullying while bullying, the referring to success as evil and bad, while calling failure success, will result in more violence and more accidents, etc. due to failures trying to drive busses and build high-rises.

  41. 2014 for Briggs

    Predictions:
    Wall Street. S&P 500 will close within 5% of 12/31/13. This is counter to Ameriprise projection. I do not project the sign.
    Sports. Broncos will win Super Bowl and end 2014 in playoffs.
    World. China will start to implode due to rapid rise of cancer deaths. Indicator will be that 10% of production moves out of China.
    Politics. Little d democrats will vote to keep as is for house and senate. Little r republicans will not use the opportunity to retake the Senate.
    AGW. Climate activists will thrash (as in a hard drive thrashing). This one does not count for much but there is such a thing as completeness.
    Religion. Another tough year for believers in a God. MSM will dominate the message.
    Wars. Nothing worth mentioning. MSM will play up hotspots but nobody will get stupid. This includes Iran, Iraq, Israel, Turkey, North Korea, Argentina, and everybody else I forgot.

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