Comments on: Shifting Baselines Syndrome http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/ "All manner of statistical analyses cheerfully undertaken." Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:14:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Brian http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7411 Brian Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:53:38 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7411 My recollection is that the Soviet Union used to ?hospitalize? its dissidents (reactionaries deemed anti-proletarian). These dissidents weren?t ?bad?, just ?mad? for even thinking counter-revolutionary thoughts. But, then the ?party line? presumably was set in stone. Who takes the fall today when the ?correct? base-line in climate science begins to shift? Assumptions change or disappear from one paper to the next, data goes missing by faulty archives or claim of ?privilege?, projections are adjusted, trend periods change, originally narrow error bars widen ? apparently all to keep pace with changing observations. I say that Jacquet and Pauly should be made to account. Which ?Little Red Book? on AGW are they reading from ? chapter and verse? After they are given the rejoinders (perhaps, in some respects, by the later words of the authors of those chapters and verses), they should then be given some lessons in history. My recollection is that the Soviet Union used to ?hospitalize? its dissidents (reactionaries deemed anti-proletarian). These dissidents weren?t ?bad?, just ?mad? for even thinking counter-revolutionary thoughts. But, then the ?party line? presumably was set in stone.

Who takes the fall today when the ?correct? base-line in climate science begins to shift? Assumptions change or disappear from one paper to the next, data goes missing by faulty archives or claim of ?privilege?, projections are adjusted, trend periods change, originally narrow error bars widen ? apparently all to keep pace with changing observations.

I say that Jacquet and Pauly should be made to account. Which ?Little Red Book? on AGW are they reading from ? chapter and verse? After they are given the rejoinders (perhaps, in some respects, by the later words of the authors of those chapters and verses), they should then be given some lessons in history.

]]> By: tesla http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7410 tesla Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:48:27 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7410 Jennifer's reasoning is horrible but she looks good in her glam shot. I predict big things for her future. Jennifer’s reasoning is horrible but she looks good in her glam shot. I predict big things for her future.

]]> By: Ray http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7408 Ray Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:33:28 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7408 If you doubt any claim made about man-made global warming, Jennifer Jacquet thinks you are a ?miscreant? and on par with those who deny that ?smoking causes cancer.? The etiology of cancer has never been explained. The causal mechanism of cancer is unknown. You can't prove causality with a statistical association. I guess stating the facts makes me a miscreant. If you doubt any claim made about man-made global warming, Jennifer Jacquet thinks you are a ?miscreant? and on par with those who deny that ?smoking causes cancer.?

The etiology of cancer has never been explained. The causal mechanism of cancer is unknown. You can’t prove causality with a statistical association. I guess stating the facts makes me a miscreant.

]]> By: Pompous Git http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7405 Pompous Git Thu, 17 Jul 2008 03:01:32 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7405 Mike @ #4 ROFLMAO! You took the words right out of my mouth :-) Mike @ #4

ROFLMAO! You took the words right out of my mouth :-)

]]> By: Mike D. http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7403 Mike D. Wed, 16 Jul 2008 23:47:55 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7403 I was going to make a point here, but I forgot what it was. Can we please start over? I was going to make a point here, but I forgot what it was. Can we please start over?

]]> By: Sylvain http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7402 Sylvain Wed, 16 Jul 2008 23:23:49 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7402 Wade, Hansen sould be all for it since the Big Oil would be the one that cause the syndrome so they would become liable to be prosecuted I find it truly sad that some people don't realize that there is disagreement on almost everything that touches human life. From sexual orientation, economics, medicine, politics, etc. Wade,

Hansen sould be all for it since the Big Oil would be the one that cause the syndrome so they would become liable to be prosecuted

I find it truly sad that some people don’t realize that there is disagreement on almost everything that touches human life. From sexual orientation, economics, medicine, politics, etc.

]]> By: Bernie http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7399 Bernie Wed, 16 Jul 2008 19:05:07 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7399 Doesn't the concept of a baseline imply a pretty concrete understanding of what was what at that point in time? If the level of uncertaintly around the baseline is too large, doesn't that detract from its essential function and value? On another but related topic, Roger Pielke, Sr has an interesting piece on the emergence of science based governance. Doesn’t the concept of a baseline imply a pretty concrete understanding of what was what at that point in time? If the level of uncertaintly around the baseline is too large, doesn’t that detract from its essential function and value?

On another but related topic, Roger Pielke, Sr has an interesting piece on the emergence of science based governance.

]]> By: Wade http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7398 Wade Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:34:16 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/07/16/shifting-baselines-syndrome/#comment-7398 The good news is, if her theory becomes accpted, no one will ever be guilty of murder (or any crime) again! Those who disagree with the law and its baseline will have grounds for an insanity defense. Which works out well for those people who think the world is overpopulated and advocate mass fratracide. Ahh, to live in a world where no one has (or apparently deserves) personal choice and responsibility. Everything is mankind's fault, yet nothing is criminalizable due to it being a "syndrome". I'd imagine Hansen will be against this, because you can't prosecute Big Oil for crimes against humanity if they're inflicted with this horrible debilitating syndrome! The good news is, if her theory becomes accpted, no one will ever be guilty of murder (or any crime) again! Those who disagree with the law and its baseline will have grounds for an insanity defense. Which works out well for those people who think the world is overpopulated and advocate mass fratracide.

Ahh, to live in a world where no one has (or apparently deserves) personal choice and responsibility. Everything is mankind’s fault, yet nothing is criminalizable due to it being a “syndrome”.

I’d imagine Hansen will be against this, because you can’t prosecute Big Oil for crimes against humanity if they’re inflicted with this horrible debilitating syndrome!

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