Comments on: The Sean Bell shooting and probability http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/ "All manner of statistical analyses cheerfully undertaken." Sun, 07 Sep 2008 19:15:38 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: WJB http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-6337 WJB Fri, 16 May 2008 03:11:35 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-6337 But what if the cops were white and from the suburbs? Wouldn't that alter the results dramatically? P.S. When does the conspiracy theory contest start? But what if the cops were white and from the suburbs? Wouldn’t that alter the results dramatically?

P.S. When does the conspiracy theory contest start?

]]> By: Ray http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-6312 Ray Thu, 15 May 2008 23:07:31 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-6312 I'm an old vietnam vet, and if you look at the statistics on how many rounds of small arms ammunition were fired in vietnam to kill one VC you would not be surprised at all by this. JamesG. Good on topic comment. We eunuchs commend you for your intelligent comment. Regards, Ray I’m an old vietnam vet, and if you look at the statistics on how many rounds of small arms ammunition were fired in vietnam to kill one VC you would not be surprised at all by this.

JamesG. Good on topic comment. We eunuchs commend you for your intelligent comment.

Regards,
Ray

]]> By: JamesG http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-6088 JamesG Wed, 14 May 2008 08:39:16 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-6088 There are times -many times in fact - when using stats to prove your point is plain ridiculous. You cannot get around the fact that they were trigger happy goons and I'm pretty sure you'd change your tune if you were the one being shot at. Couldn't happen? There was a very similar case in London where the cops riddled a suspect's car with bullets but it was a case of mistaken identity. Why did they use so many bullets? Because they were after a cop-killer. It's nothing to do with statistical hit-ratios it's just about being trigger happy. An American without a gun is a eunuch. There are times -many times in fact - when using stats to prove your point is plain ridiculous. You cannot get around the fact that they were trigger happy goons and I’m pretty sure you’d change your tune if you were the one being shot at. Couldn’t happen? There was a very similar case in London where the cops riddled a suspect’s car with bullets but it was a case of mistaken identity. Why did they use so many bullets? Because they were after a cop-killer. It’s nothing to do with statistical hit-ratios it’s just about being trigger happy. An American without a gun is a eunuch.

]]> By: Right Wing Nation » Law Enforcement Meets Statistics http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5987 Right Wing Nation » Law Enforcement Meets Statistics Mon, 12 May 2008 17:39:19 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5987 [...] Over at Wm Briggs. And aren’t all police good Bayesians? [...] […] Over at Wm Briggs. And aren’t all police good Bayesians? […]

]]> By: rightwingprof http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5986 rightwingprof Mon, 12 May 2008 17:36:53 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5986 This is brilliant. And I've known many good Bayesian cops in my life. This is brilliant. And I’ve known many good Bayesian cops in my life.

]]> By: Rant of the Week: 5/11/08 ? 5/17/08 » The Ethereal Voice http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5917 Rant of the Week: 5/11/08 ? 5/17/08 » The Ethereal Voice Mon, 12 May 2008 00:45:27 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5917 [...] William M. Briggs examines the Sean Bell shooting. [...] […] William M. Briggs examines the Sean Bell shooting. […]

]]> By: Briggs http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5819 Briggs Sun, 11 May 2008 09:34:28 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5819 Steven, If the cops were good Bayesians, and the probability of hitting the target was the same for each shot, then they would come to the exact same conclusion. The stats above are about <em>observables</em> with the probability fixed and known. We would only need priors and whatnot if we were trying to estimate the probability of hitting. And even after we've done that, we still have to make statements about the observables (shots) again. Steven,

If the cops were good Bayesians, and the probability of hitting the target was the same for each shot, then they would come to the exact same conclusion.

The stats above are about observables with the probability fixed and known. We would only need priors and whatnot if we were trying to estimate the probability of hitting. And even after we’ve done that, we still have to make statements about the observables (shots) again.

]]> By: steven mosher http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5779 steven mosher Sun, 11 May 2008 00:14:14 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5779 If they were baysian what would their prior be and when would they stop firing? If they were baysian what would their prior be and when would they stop firing?

]]> By: KuhnKat http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5761 KuhnKat Sat, 10 May 2008 22:36:30 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5761 Thor, the police in this case were shooting at men in a moving vehicle. It was also at night under street lights. In excellent conditions where the shooter has some feedback as to where he is hitting there may be adjustment. In this case, not quite random shots in the general direction is probably closer to reality. distractme, tracer rounds cause fires. As to tactics, they have already gone past verbal orders, physical grabbing, clubs, tasers, another police unit trying to block the moving vehicle... Calling in the SWAT team or an air strike takes time!! My personal opinion (no law enforcement background) is that the real argument will be over whether there was sufficient reason to start firing the guns in the first place. The allegations that the victims rammed a police car will undoubtedly be investigated in depth. Thor,

the police in this case were shooting at men in a moving vehicle. It was also at night under street lights.

In excellent conditions where the shooter has some feedback as to where he is hitting there may be adjustment. In this case, not quite random shots in the general direction is probably closer to reality.

distractme,

tracer rounds cause fires. As to tactics, they have already gone past verbal orders, physical grabbing, clubs, tasers, another police unit trying to block the moving vehicle… Calling in the SWAT team or an air strike takes time!!

My personal opinion (no law enforcement background) is that the real argument will be over whether there was sufficient reason to start firing the guns in the first place. The allegations that the victims rammed a police car will undoubtedly be investigated in depth.

]]> By: Brian http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5739 Brian Sat, 10 May 2008 18:30:40 +0000 http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/05/08/the-sean-bell-shooting-and-probability/#comment-5739 Sounds like job hunting to be expert witness for the defense - particularly in the civil trial(s). I hope you have the time for it as trial(s) will "probably" be ongoing for some time. At a minimum, counsels for both sides should be aware of the stats. Sounds like job hunting to be expert witness for the defense - particularly in the civil trial(s). I hope you have the time for it as trial(s) will “probably” be ongoing for some time. At a minimum, counsels for both sides should be aware of the stats.

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