Comments on: Hitting or Pitching. Which wins more games?

By: TCO

TCO — Wed, 14 May 2008 13:41:08 +0000

Mike D: Maybe that is right (I’m not sure). I would say that I talked with the head of Breckenridge, which is a resort with both heavy destination and day skiing. He was aware of the need to understand the two populations and their different needs and even (he wouldn’t quite admit this, but it’s obvious) the differing price sensativity, ability to exploit, etc. He said, “we’ve paid for all kinds of statistical market research”.

By: Chris Berg

Chris Berg — Tue, 13 May 2008 16:22:12 +0000

Mr. Briggs,

Thanks for sharing! Great info, and I am going to send it to some friends. Hope you are well, and thanks again for the interview.

By: Mike D.

Mike D. — Tue, 06 May 2008 21:30:14 +0000

Another, perhaps more realistic stat-leisure field is in market analysis for destination resorts. Every resort draws visitors from certain zip codes, at certain times of the year. Most resorts do not do intensive analysis of their particular markets, nor do they direct their advertising efficiently. Often their marketing is highly subjective rather then analytical. They need stat help. They also need their analysts to visit the resorts and be comped for rooms, meals, and leisure activities, to get familiar with the amenities offered. Aloha Hoi!

By: Mike D.

Mike D. — Tue, 06 May 2008 20:26:38 +0000

Good job, Tim. Sabermetrics! If agriculture was the birthplace of statistics, baseball is the vacation condo.

Even the obscure Bill James has a baseball job now, with the Bosoxs. It’s a growing opportunity sector for stat grads. More fun than being an actuary.

The best stat job I ever heard of, though, is the stat whiz who rates golf courses for the USGA. Every GC must be evaluated for cross-handicap purposes. Just because two courses are par 72, it doesn’t mean they are equally difficult. Somebody has to fly around rating them, and he/she gets paid to do it. Might be a direction in which to guide the aggressive yet leisure-prone student.

By: TCO

TCO — Mon, 05 May 2008 15:30:11 +0000

You might also consider the rich literature by Hunter and Schmidt on the “value of talent” accross different occupations. Essentially most of their work involves characterizing the standard deviation (and some examination of nonnormality) of various bell curves for worker output. They publish(ed) a lot of J Appl Psych.

By: Alan D. McIntire

Alan D. McIntire — Mon, 05 May 2008 05:44:19 +0000

I had some additonal thoughts on this. Offence and defence are obviously each 50% of the game. Hitting must be 50%, pitching must be less than 50% since fielding also plays a factor, probably about 5%,

In the National Leage, each non pitcher is a 1/9 component of offence, or 1/18 component of the game. In addition, each batter contributes an average of 1/9 (5%)= 0.556% by fielding. Of course tha actual percentage varies by position. The pitcher makes up (45.56%) for pitching and fielding plus 1/9(1/2) for his hitting ability, or 51.16% of the game, versus 5.56 + 0.56%= 6.12% of the game for each hitter. You might argue that all pitchers are poor hitters, but
a difference of 0.1 runs/game hitting ability between two opposing pitchers can add up. If a National Leage pitcher was able to pitch every game, he’d be worth about 8.36 times as much as the average hitter. Pitching an average of 1/5 of all games, the pitcher would be worth about 1.67 times as much as the average batter.

In the American Leage, the pitcher should be worth only 45.56/51.16= 89% as much, since he contributes nothing to offense.

By: TCO

TCO — Sun, 04 May 2008 04:01:32 +0000

(I admit to skimming, so if I missed something mea culpa).

1. I think your analysis missing a discussion of $ versus quality as they differ for pitchers and hitters. IOW, sure getting a pitcher is better, but perhaps the extra money doesn’t buy you that much ERA.

2. Even if it does, perhaps the reason for the discrepancy is a difference in happiness function. Perhaps hitters drive more ball park revenue and thus some trade-off of payment for wins versus payment for fannies in seats is made by the clubs.

By: Briggs

Briggs — Fri, 02 May 2008 13:42:39 +0000

Henry,

I was particularly happy to see them demoralize the Yankees this week.

By: Henry Bowman

Henry Bowman — Fri, 02 May 2008 12:44:51 +0000

Hey, Mr. Briggs, the Tigers are presently on a roll, despite a relative lack of hitting. Do not despair!

By: Trey

Trey — Thu, 01 May 2008 22:57:54 +0000

Wow, this is great work, from the article it looks like he based his finding off team success and demise rather than individual players which i feel most of these posts don’t seem to understand, specifically talking about Starters and closers.

Also mentioning Ball park effects shouldn’t hold much weight due to the fact that the team plays half of it’s games in different stadiums and the teams in the same division also play close to a sixth of their games in each other parks.

This is simply amazing work, as an avid baseball fan and as a Math “fan”. Tim keep up the good job and do work!