William M. Briggs, Statistician

I have returned from Madrid, where the conference went moderately well. My part was acceptable, but I could have done a better job, which I’ll explain in a moment.

Iberia Airlines is reasonable, but the seats in steerage were even smaller than I thought. On the way there, I sat next to a lady whose head kept lolling over onto me as she slept. The trip back was better, because I was able to commandeer two sets. Plus, there were a large, boisterous group of young Portuguese men who apparently had never been to New York City before. They were in high spirits for most of the trip, which made the journey seem shorter. About an hour before landing they started to practice some English phrases which they thought would be useful for picking up American women: “Would you go out with me?”, “I like you”, and “You are a fucking sweetheart.”

My talk was simultaneously translated in Spanish, and I wish I would have been more coherent and that I would have talked slower. The translator told me afterwards that I talked “rather fast.” I know I left a lot of people wondering.

The audience was mostly scientists (of all kinds) and journalists. My subject was rather technical and new, and while I do think it is a useful approach, it is not the best talk to present to non-specialists. My biggest fault was my failure to recognize and speak about the evidence that others found convincing. I could have offered a more reasonable comparison if I had done so.

I’ll write about these topics in more depth later, but briefly: people weight heavily the fact that many different climate models are in agreement in closely simulating past observations. There are two main, and very simple problems with this evidence, which I could have, at the time, done a better job pointing out. For example, I could have asked this question: why are there any differences between climate models? The point being that eight climate models agreeing is not eight independent pieces of evidence. All of these models, for instance, use the same equations of motion. We should be surprised that there are any differences between them.

The second problem I did point out, but I do not think I was convincing. So far, climate models over-predict independent data: that is, they all forecast higher temperatures than are actually observed. This is for data that was not used to fit the models. This means, this can only mean, that the climate models are wrong. They might not be very wrong, but they are wrong just the same. So we should be asking: why are they wrong?

There was a press conference, conducted in Spanish. I can read Spanish much better than I can hear it, which is a fault I should work harder to correct, but it meant that I could not follow most of the comments or questions well. I was the critical representative, and a Professor Moreno was my foil. The most pertinent question to me was (something like) “Do I think it is time for new laws to be passed to combat global warming?” I said no. Professor Moreno vehemently disagreed, incorrectly using as an example the unfortunate heat wave in Spain that was responsible for a large number of deaths. Incorrect, because it is impossible to say that this particular heat wave was caused by humans (in the form of anthropogenic global warming). But the press there, like here (like everywhere), enjoyed the conflict between us, so this is what was reported.

Here, for the sake of vanity, are some links (in Spanish) for the news coverage. We were also on the Spanish national television news on the first night of the conference, but I didn’t see it because we were out. Some of these links may, of course, expire.

1. ?Existe el cambio clim?tico?
2. Estad?stico de EEUU rebaja la fiabilidad de las predicciones del IPCC contra la opini?n general
3. Un estad?stico americano pone en duda la veracidad del cambio clim?tico
4. Un experto americano duda de las consecuencias del cambio clim?tico
5. Evidencias apabullantes
6. Un debate sobre cambio clim?tico termina a gritos en Madrid

Madrid itself was wonderful, and my hosts Francisco Garc?a Novo y Antonio Cembrero were absolute gentlemen, and I met many lovely people. I was introduced to several excellent restaurants and cervesaria. The food was better than I can write about—I nearly wept at the Museo del Jamon. I felt thoroughly spoiled. Dr Novo introduced me to La Grita, a subtle sherry that is a perfect foil for olives. I managed to find some in the duty free shop, and I recommend that if you see some, snatch it up.

Come back over the next few days. By then, I hope to have written something on the agreement of climate models.