How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III
Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks anno...
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How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update
Read Part I Part II What we’re after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability...
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I
Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don’t n...
Predictive Case Study 1, Part II
Review! We began our first predictive analysis, and spent a lot of time with it. But we still haven’t got to the main question! And that is how it should ...