Note This post originally ran 11 June 2019 under the title “When Cause Is Not A Cause — Another Anti-P-Value Argument”. The post itself is extracted and modified from this set of […]

## Subjective Probability Is Objective

Because certain forms of Bayesian probability, particularly so-called subjective probability, are being taken up in quantum mechanics, it’s well to understand just what subjective probability is, if it’s anything, and how belief […]

## What’s The Probability Of A Nuclear War?

For readers in a hurry, here’s the answer: There is no probability of a nuclear war. Nor of a conventional one. Nor even of you being victor in your next King Of […]

## Probability Thought Experiment With NNT: Reader Question

From reader Ernst, this interesting probability/statistics question. First, NNT = number needed to treat, which is, stealing from this site to save time, “The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is the number […]

## When Does A Small Probability Mean Impossibility?

Question from reader Richard Stevens: A professional scientist, holding an MS in one of the hard sciences, addressed the argument that the probability of creating a protein or an enzyme by neo-Darwinian […]

## The Probability Of Your Existence

A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was always, until […]

## Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think

Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article “The concept of probability is not as simple as you think” by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular theories analyse […]

## The Probability of Monkeys Typing Shakespeare

This article, which originally appeared 20 May 2010, was inspired by reading Fredwin On Evolution, as wisely suggested by reader Bob Ludwick. At the bottom of Fred’s piece, there appears a rough […]

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